Portland State Vikings at Saint Mary's Gaels: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 16, 12:00 AM ETUniversity Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Portland St and Saint Mary's
PRST	This season	SMC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMC 79–61 · win probability SMC 94%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

PRST 1, SMC 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SMCBig

PRST offense vs SMC defense

Offense 284th of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PRST has played the 322nd-hardest schedule, SMC the 93rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

SMCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PRST 37.1, SMC 35.5. Allowed: PRST 42.8, SMC 25.7

SMCBig

Three-pointers

PRST hits 32.6% and allows 32.3%; SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 34.4% and 36.4% of their shots

SMCBig

SMC offense vs PRST defense

Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 244th, on the model’s ratings

SMCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PRST 30.0%, SMC 37.5%. Defensive: PRST 73.6%, SMC 76.1%

PRSTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PRST 16.9%, SMC 16.9%. Forced: PRST 18.0%, SMC 15.1%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: PRST plays 69.6 a game (140th fastest), SMC 66.2 (305th). Faster games mean more points

SMCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PRST 50.5 and allows 48.8; SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8

SMCSmall

Home court

SMC at home. This season: SMC 0-0 at home, PRST 0-0 away

SMCSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PRST 6%, SMC 32%. Transfers in: PRST 4, SMC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SMC -17.7	—
Total	—	140.0	—
Projected score	—	PRST 61.2 · SMC 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMC -10.4	—
1H total	65.5	—
1H projected score	PRST 27.6 · SMC 38	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRST LLWWL	19-9	68%	11-4	—
SMC WWWLL	19-13	59%	12-4	—

Venue/role: PRST away; SMC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRST OOUOO	12-16	43%	17-11
SMC OUUUU	14-18	44%	26-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
SMC	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Portland St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs CSUF	No recent meeting
Nov 25	@ UCR	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ SIU	No recent meeting

Saint Mary's

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs SLU	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs UCLA	L56–72LO
Dec 1	vs HOF	W76–48WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Portland St

28 games played

Straight up

17-11

61% wins

Against the spread

19-9

68% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-16

43% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1161%

L L W W W L L L W W W W W W W L W W W W L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-968%

W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W L W L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1643%

O U O U U U O U O O O U U U U U U O U O U U U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@STAN	L 79-89	+11.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 12	@SF	L 70-80	+13.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 17	vsCSUB	W 93-80	-8.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 25	@UTU	W 68-63	-1.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 131
Dec 3	@SDAK	W 77-71	-2.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsOMA	L 55-60	-12.5	L −17.5	144.5	U 115
Dec 17	@COLO	L 73-84	+16.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 157
Dec 20	@TULN	L 61-63	+2.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 1	@WEB	W 95-90	-1.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 185
Jan 3	@IDST	W 93-87	+3.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 180
Jan 10	vsSAC	W 96-69	-9.5	W +17.5	160.5	O 165
Jan 15	vsUNCO	W 76-73	-2.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 149
Jan 17	vsNAU	W 63-52	-11.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 115
Jan 22	@EWU	W 65-61	-2.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 126
Jan 24	@IDHO	W 69-66	+1.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsMONT	L 60-64	-4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 124
Jan 31	vsMTST	W 63-54	-4.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 117
Feb 2	vsIDST	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 153
Feb 7	@SAC	W 74-73	-3.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 147
Feb 12	@NAU	W 77-68	-6.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 14	@UNCO	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 19	vsIDHO	W 77-67	-3.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 21	vsEWU	L 55-67	-6.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 122
Feb 26	@MTST	L 69-84	+2.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 28	@MONT	L 68-74	+1.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 2	vsWEB	W 84-60	-4.5	W +19.5	144.5	U 144
Mar 8	vsIDST	W 85-78	-5.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 163
Mar 10	vsMONT	L 72-75	-3.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STAN

L 79-89

+1.5

L 70-80

+3.5

CSUB

W 93-80

+4.5

UTU

W 68-63

+3.5

SDAK

W 77-71

+3.5

OMA

L 55-60

−17.5

COLO

L 73-84

+5.5

TULN

L 61-63

+0.5

WEB

W 95-90

+3.5

IDST

W 93-87

+9.5

SAC

W 96-69

+17.5

UNCO

W 76-73

+0.5

NAU

W 63-52

−0.5

EWU

W 65-61

+1.5

IDHO

W 69-66

+4.5

MONT

L 60-64

−8.5

MTST

W 63-54

+4.5

IDST

W 88-65

+15.5

SAC

W 74-73

−2.5

NAU

W 77-68

+2.5

UNCO

L 65-77

−8.5

IDHO

W 77-67

+6.5

EWU

L 55-67

−18.5

MTST

L 69-84

−12.5

MONT

L 68-74

−4.5

WEB

W 84-60

+19.5

IDST

W 85-78

+1.5

MONT

L 72-75

−6.5

covered 19didn’t cover 9avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STAN

L 79-89

+23.5

L 70-80

−4.5

CSUB

W 93-80

+31.5

UTU

W 68-63

−15.5

SDAK

W 77-71

−10.5

OMA

L 55-60

−29.5

COLO

L 73-84

+6.5

TULN

L 61-63

−21.5

WEB

W 95-90

+36.5

IDST

W 93-87

+37.5

SAC

W 96-69

+4.5

UNCO

W 76-73

−6.5

NAU

W 63-52

−25.5

EWU

W 65-61

−24.5

IDHO

W 69-66

−10.5

MONT

L 60-64

−19.5

MTST

W 63-54

−21.5

IDST

W 88-65

+16.5

SAC

W 74-73

−3.5

NAU

W 77-68

+8.5

UNCO

L 65-77

−7.5

IDHO

W 77-67

−1.5

EWU

L 55-67

−24.5

MTST

L 69-84

+12.5

MONT

L 68-74

+0.5

WEB

W 84-60

−0.5

IDST

W 85-78

+21.5

MONT

L 72-75

+1.5

over 12under 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Mary's

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1359%

W W W W L L W L W L L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O O O U U O U U O U O U U O O O U U U U U U O U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTMN	W 84-58	-13.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 7	vsUTC	W 87-66	-15.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 11	vsOHIO	W 90-60	-17.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsUNT	W 80-49	-14.5	W +16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 19	vsARST	W 85-72	-20.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 26	vsWICH	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsVT	W 77-66	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVAN	L 71-96	+4.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 7	@DAV	W 70-61	-8.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 14	vsBOIS	L 67-68	-2.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 19	vsFAU	W 88-75	-13.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsUNI	W 63-58	-11.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 28	@LMU	W 78-73	-9.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	@PEPP	W 72-45	-19.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	vsPORT	W 78-57	-18.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 135
Jan 4	vsSEA	W 93-76	-11.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsWSU	W 88-82	-15.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 170
Jan 13	@SF	W 82-68	-5.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 17	@SCU	L 54-62	+1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 21	vsORST	W 81-51	-19.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 24	@PORT	W 75-69	-14.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 31	@GONZ	L 65-73	+8.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUSD	W 87-60	-20.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 147
Feb 7	vsSF	W 79-54	-11.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 11	vsPEPP	W 88-60	-24.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 14	@PAC	W 72-61	-7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 18	@SEA	W 72-70	-9.5	L −7.5	133.5	O 142
Feb 21	@WSU	W 83-67	-8.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 150
Feb 25	vsSCU	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsGONZ	W 70-59	+2.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 9	vsSCU	L 71-76	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 19	vsTA&M	L 50-63	-2.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 113

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+12.5

UTC

W 87-66

+5.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+12.5

UNT

W 80-49

+16.5

ARST

W 85-72

−7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

+5.5

VAN

L 71-96

−20.5

DAV

W 70-61

+0.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−3.5

FAU

W 88-75

−0.5

UNI

W 63-58

−6.5

LMU

W 78-73

−4.5

PEPP

W 72-45

+7.5

PORT

W 78-57

+2.5

SEA

W 93-76

+5.5

WSU

W 88-82

−9.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−6.5

ORST

W 81-51

+10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−8.5

GONZ

L 65-73

+0.5

USD

W 87-60

+6.5

W 79-54

+13.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

+3.5

SEA

W 72-70

−7.5

WSU

W 83-67

+7.5

SCU

W 86-67

+13.5

GONZ

W 70-59

+13.5

SCU

L 71-76

−9.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+0.5

UTC

W 87-66

+7.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+5.5

UNT

W 80-49

+0.5

ARST

W 85-72

+7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

−1.5

VAN

L 71-96

+17.5

DAV

W 70-61

−6.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−4.5

FAU

W 88-75

+17.5

UNI

W 63-58

−11.5

LMU

W 78-73

+7.5

PEPP

W 72-45

−24.5

PORT

W 78-57

−11.5

SEA

W 93-76

+29.5

WSU

W 88-82

+26.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−36.5

ORST

W 81-51

−10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−0.5

GONZ

L 65-73

−6.5

USD

W 87-60

−1.5

W 79-54

−9.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

−2.5

SEA

W 72-70

+8.5

WSU

W 83-67

+0.5

SCU

W 86-67

−0.5

GONZ

W 70-59

−14.5

SCU

L 71-76

−3.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−36.5

over 14under 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Mary's has the better starters

Position by position: Portland St 0, Saint Mary's 1, even 4

Portland StBetterSaint Mary's

G E. Skytt TR3.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26

SMCBig

G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

G K. Johnson TR1.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 39

Even

G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53

G C. Ness0.6 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21

F B. Barron0.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73

C K. Ibekwe TR3.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 34

No call

F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

Portland StBetterSaint Mary's

PRST offense284th of 366 · -8.8

SMCBig

SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5

PRST defense244th of 366 · -6.4

SMCSmall

SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5

Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players

SMCSmall

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

SMCSmall

Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players

Bench-0.3 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestPRST betterSMC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Portland St

Guards

E. Skytt12 min · TRK. Johnson10 min · TRC. Ness4 minN. PollardNewT. FrankNewD. JohnsonNew

Forwards

B. Barron4 minC. Chukwu3 minL. Kearney3 min · TRJ. RandolphNewA. PusateriNewF. CoratoNew

Centers

K. Ibekwe9 min · TR

Saint Mary's

Guards

J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew

Forwards

T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew

Centers

S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PRST73.9 #199

SMC76.8 #125

Points per possession

PRST1.06 #220

SMC1.17 #39

Pace (possessions)

PRST69.6 #140

SMC66.2 #305

Shooting

Effective FG%

PRST50.5 #211

SMC52.8 #109

3-point %

PRST32.6 #250

SMC38.7 #7

3-point attempt rate

PRST34.4 #287

SMC36.4 #242

Free throw rate

PRST37.1 #126

SMC35.5 #162

Possessions

Turnover rate

PRST16.9 #200

SMC16.9 #201

Offensive rebound rate

PRST30.0 #199

SMC37.5 #12

Assists per game

PRST13.4 #186

SMC15.1 #82

Defense

Points allowed

PRST71.2 #80

SMC65.2 #7

Points allowed per possession

PRST1.02 #45

SMC0.98 #14

Opponent effective FG%

PRST48.8 #56

SMC46.8 #20

Opponent 3-point %

PRST32.3 #77

SMC31.4 #40

Turnovers forced

PRST18.0 #94

SMC15.1 #274

Defensive rebound rate

PRST73.6 #23

SMC76.1 #4

Steals per game

PRST7.2 #104

SMC5.5 #302

Blocks per game

PRST3.8 #108

SMC3.6 #129

PRST		SMC
Scoring
73.9 #199	Points per game	76.8 #125
1.06 #220	Points per possession	1.17 #39
69.6 #140	Pace (possessions)	66.2 #305
Shooting
50.5 #211	Effective FG%	52.8 #109
32.6 #250	3-point %	38.7 #7
34.4 #287	3-point attempt rate	36.4 #242
37.1 #126	Free throw rate	35.5 #162
Possessions
16.9 #200	Turnover rate	16.9 #201
30.0 #199	Offensive rebound rate	37.5 #12
13.4 #186	Assists per game	15.1 #82
Defense
71.2 #80	Points allowed	65.2 #7
1.02 #45	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #14
48.8 #56	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #20
32.3 #77	Opponent 3-point %	31.4 #40
18.0 #94	Turnovers forced	15.1 #274
73.6 #23	Defensive rebound rate	76.1 #4
7.2 #104	Steals per game	5.5 #302
3.8 #108	Blocks per game	3.6 #129

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Portland St

17-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Montana72–75
Wvs Idaho St85–78
Wvs Weber St84–60
L@ Montana68–74
L@ Montana St69–84

A week or more of rest.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas A&M50–63
Lvs Santa Clara71–76
Wvs Gonzaga70–59
Wvs Santa Clara86–67
W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.

Portland State Vikings at Saint Mary's Gaels

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Portland St

Saint Mary's

Saint Mary's has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Portland St

Saint Mary's