1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 16
  3. WKU @ TLSA
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 16

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Reynolds Center · at Tulsa
#129WKUWestern KY
@
#108TLSATulsa
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WKUThis seasonTLSA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TLSA 81–74 · win probability TLSA 72%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TLSA has more of the edges

WKU 2, TLSA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TLSABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WKU 47.5 and allows 51.2; TLSA 55.4 and allows 49.5
TLSABig
Three-pointers
WKU hits 33.4% and allows 34.3%; TLSA hits 38.5% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 39.5% and 46.7% of their shots
TLSABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WKU 41.2, TLSA 41.4. Allowed: WKU 46.8, TLSA 32.0
WKUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WKU 14.5%, TLSA 15.6%. Forced: WKU 17.2%, TLSA 15.4%
TLSASmall
TLSA offense vs WKU defense
Offense 99th of 366 against a defense 169th, on the model’s ratings
TLSASmall
Home court
TLSA at home. This season: TLSA 0-0 at home, WKU 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
WKU has played the 160th-hardest schedule, TLSA the 111th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WKUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WKU 44%, TLSA 18%. Transfers in: WKU 4, TLSA 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WKU 31.8%, TLSA 32.8%. Defensive: WKU 70.5%, TLSA 71.0%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: WKU plays 71.5 a game (52nd fastest), TLSA 70.1 (115th). Faster games mean more points
Even
WKU offense vs TLSA defense
Offense 115th of 366 against a defense 133rd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TLSA -6.5—
Total—154.7—
Projected score—WKU 74.1 · TLSA 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTLSA -3.8—
1H total72.3—
1H projected scoreWKU 34.3 · TLSA 38—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Western KY has the better starters

Position by position: Western KY 3, Tulsa 1, even 1
Western KYBetterTulsa
G T. Moore19.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99
WKUBig
G K. Williams TR14.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 46
G N. Norgaard TR7.8 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11
TLSABig
G J. Johnson TR15 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 69
G A. Boone10.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 61
Even
G B. Moss TR9.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 54
G L. Hackman8.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 64
WKUBig
F M. Emory TR11.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 27
F E. Erkins-Ford TR8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 71
WKUBig
F C. Loofe TR7.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26
Western KYBetterTulsa
WKU offense115th of 366 · -2.4
Even
TLSA defense133rd of 366 · -2.5
WKU defense169th of 366 · -3.9
TLSASmall
TLSA offense99th of 366 · -0.8
Backcourt+3.0 · 4 players
WKUBig
Backcourt-0.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
WKUBig
Frontcourt-3.8 · 2 players
Bench-3.8 · 3 players
TLSABig
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWKU betterTLSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Western KY
Guards
T. Moore30 minN. Norgaard25 min · TRA. Boone25 minL. Hackman22 minS. Young19 min · TRK. Unseld11 min
Forwards
E. Erkins-Ford22 min · TRE. Walker16 min · TRM. KonareNewG. WeisNewJ. AdebayoNew
Tulsa
Guards
K. Williams36 min · TRJ. Johnson33 min · TRB. Moss27 min · TRM. Williams21 min · TRM. Rigsby19 minJ. Lawal13 min
Forwards
M. Emory37 min · TRC. Loofe26 min · TRK. Banks16 min · TRD. DesireNewA. DimitrijevicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WKUTLSA
Scoring
77.9 #95Points per game83.9 #20
1.09 #163Points per possession1.20 #16
71.5 #52Pace (possessions)70.1 #115
Shooting
47.5 #327Effective FG%55.4 #29
33.4 #2053-point %38.5 #10
39.5 #1843-point attempt rate46.7 #37
41.2 #42Free throw rate41.4 #39
Possessions
14.5 #42Turnover rate15.6 #109
31.8 #134Offensive rebound rate32.8 #95
12.9 #215Assists per game15.1 #79
Defense
77.0 #241Points allowed74.4 #172
1.08 #155Points allowed per possession1.06 #111
51.2 #169Opponent effective FG%49.5 #82
34.3 #205Opponent 3-point %32.4 #85
17.2 #134Turnovers forced15.4 #260
70.5 #135Defensive rebound rate71.0 #108
7.4 #90Steals per game6.6 #170
2.3 #327Blocks per game2.5 #306
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Western KY

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kennesaw St87–96
  • L@ FIU67–92
  • L@ Missouri St74–87
  • Wvs UTEP97–65
  • Wvs New Mexico St93–70

A week or more of rest.

Tulsa

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn86–92
  • Wvs New Mexico74–69
  • Wvs Wichita St83–79
  • Wvs UNLV77–66
  • Wvs SF Austin89–84

A week or more of rest.