1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. BRAD vs GMU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Bradley Braves vs George Mason Patriots

McArthur Center · Neutral site
#167BRADBradley
vs
#93GMUGeorge Mason
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BRADThis seasonGMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 77–69 · win probability GMU 77%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

BRAD 1, GMU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GMUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: BRAD 35.9, GMU 41.1. Allowed: BRAD 38.2, GMU 28.9
BRADBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BRAD 13.9%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: BRAD 18.9%, GMU 15.5%
GMUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BRAD 51.1 and allows 52.8; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: BRAD plays 69.9 a game (125th fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points
GMUBig
BRAD offense vs GMU defense
Offense 175th of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings
GMUSmall
GMU offense vs BRAD defense
Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 185th, on the model’s ratings
GMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BRAD 27.4%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: BRAD 72.2%, GMU 71.7%
Even
Three-pointers
BRAD hits 36.1% and allows 36.6%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 40.5% and 35.2% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
BRAD has played the 155th-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BRAD 16%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: BRAD 3, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GMU -8.3—
Total—146.2—
Projected score—BRAD 68.9 · GMU 77.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGMU -4.8—
1H total68.4—
1H projected scoreBRAD 31.8 · GMU 36.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

George Mason has the better starters

Position by position: Bradley 0, George Mason 3, even 2
BradleyBetterGeorge Mason
G T. Payton TR9.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 15
GMUBig
G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91
G T. van der Knaap6.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 30
GMUBig
G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71
G D. Richardson2.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39
F X. Alarie TR10.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 50
GMUSmall
F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
F J. Ibukunoluwa TR2.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74
BradleyBetterGeorge Mason
BRAD offense175th of 366 · -5.4
GMUSmall
GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1
BRAD defense185th of 366 · -4.3
GMUSmall
GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5
Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players
GMUBig
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
GMUBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
BRADSmall
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBRAD betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bradley
Guards
T. Payton34 min · TRT. van der Knaap23 minD. Richardson7 minG. Rugaard1 minK. GrillNewG. GerganovNew
Forwards
X. Alarie28 min · TRJ. Ibukunoluwa6 min · TRB. ThornbrueNew
Centers
G. GuimaresNew
George Mason
Guards
B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min
Forwards
E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew
Centers
J. Nnaji8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BRADGMU
Scoring
77.0 #117Points per game72.9 #227
1.10 #129Points per possession1.13 #93
69.9 #125Pace (possessions)64.7 #351
Shooting
51.1 #189Effective FG%52.7 #113
36.1 #533-point %33.3 #214
40.5 #1613-point attempt rate35.2 #270
35.9 #156Free throw rate41.1 #44
Possessions
13.9 #19Turnover rate15.8 #121
27.4 #285Offensive rebound rate31.3 #149
13.3 #191Assists per game12.6 #243
Defense
74.2 #162Points allowed68.0 #31
1.06 #109Points allowed per possession1.05 #89
52.8 #259Opponent effective FG%49.5 #83
36.6 #334Opponent 3-point %32.6 #91
18.9 #53Turnovers forced15.5 #254
72.2 #62Defensive rebound rate71.7 #79
7.5 #86Steals per game5.0 #334
3.2 #192Blocks per game3.0 #228
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bradley

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton66–80
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–73
  • Wvs Valparaiso90–84
  • Wvs Murray St87–78
  • L@ UIC86–93

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Liberty71–77
  • Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
  • Wvs Saint Louis86–57
  • L@ VCU65–70
  • Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.