Drexel Dragons at Maine Black Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ETSkip Chappelle Court in Memorial Gymnasium · at Maine

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Drexel and Maine
DREX	This season	ME
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DREX 67–64 · win probability DREX 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 131.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DREX 4, ME 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DREXBig

ME offense vs DREX defense

Offense 357th of 366 against a defense 175th, on the model’s ratings

DREXBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DREX 31.2%, ME 19.7%. Defensive: DREX 69.0%, ME 65.7%

MEBig

DREX offense vs ME defense

Offense 323rd of 366 against a defense 191st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DREX has played the 199th-hardest schedule, ME the 319th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DREX 31.6, ME 38.4. Allowed: DREX 35.4, ME 33.9

DREXSmall

Three-pointers

DREX hits 35.5% and allows 30.3%; ME hits 31.2% and allows 29.4%. Threes are 40.0% and 37.0% of their shots

DREXSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DREX 50.6 and allows 47.1; ME 49.6 and allows 50.6

MESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DREX 19.1%, ME 19.2%. Forced: DREX 16.4%, ME 19.3%

MESmall

Home court

ME at home. This season: ME 0-0 at home, DREX 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DREX 24%, ME 31%. Transfers in: DREX 2, ME 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: DREX plays 65.2 a game (341st fastest), ME 64.9 (348th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DREX -3.4	—
Total	—	131.2	—
Projected score	—	DREX 67.3 · ME 63.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DREX -2.1	—
1H total	61.5	—
1H projected score	DREX 31.8 · ME 29.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DREX WWLWL	19-13	59%	7-7	—
ME WWLLW	14-17	45%	3-8	—

Venue/role: DREX away; ME home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DREX UUUOU	14-18	44%	16-16
ME UUOUU	12-19	39%	7-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DREX	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ME	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Drexel

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs JOES	L65–76LO
Nov 24	@ PENN	L68–84LU
Nov 28	@ MSM	W75–67WO

Maine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	@ QUIN	L64–70LU
Nov 21	@ MASS	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs LEM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DREX 1–0 MEDREX leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DREX 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2025-26	ME 56 @ DREX 74	DREX -10.5	DREX W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drexel

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L L L W L W W L L L W W L L L W W W L W W W L W L L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L L W L W L W L L W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O U U U O U O O O O O U U O U U U U O U U U O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@JOES	L 65-76	+9.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 11	@COLG	L 83-90	+3.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSYR	L 50-80	+11.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsNJIT	W 75-43	-13.5	W +18.5	138.5	U 118
Nov 21	vsPENN	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 23	vsODU	W 75-71	-3.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 25	@MORG	W 71-66	-5.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 137
Dec 3	@AMER	L 73-75	+4.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	@LAS	L 64-69	-1.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 133
Dec 16	vsHOW	L 66-74	-6.5	L −14.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsMSM	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 21	vsME	W 74-56	-10.5	W +7.5	129.5	O 130
Dec 29	@COFC	L 63-72	+9.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 135
Dec 31	@UNCW	L 53-65	+12.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHOF	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	131.5	O 137
Jan 8	vsSTBK	W 56-37	-5.5	W +13.5	132.5	U 93
Jan 10	vsW&M	W 64-58	+3.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 122
Jan 15	@MONM	W 73-51	+5.5	W +27.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 19	@TOW	L 58-59	+7.5	W +6.5	124.5	U 117
Jan 24	vsNE	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 29	vsHAMP	W 58-51	-2.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 109
Jan 31	vsNCAT	W 61-60	-7.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 5	@CAM	L 60-81	+4.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 7	@ELON	W 82-77	+4.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 159
Feb 12	vsMONM	L 73-93	-1.5	L −21.5	133.5	O 166
Feb 16	@STBK	L 69-72	+2.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 19	@NE	W 70-61	+1.5	W +10.5	143.5	U 131
Feb 22	vsTOW	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 130
Feb 26	vsCAM	W 65-60	-1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 125
Mar 3	@HOF	L 51-62	+8.5	L −2.5	133.5	U 113
Mar 7	vsNE	W 84-77	-4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 161
Mar 8	vsMONM	L 57-65	+3.5	L −4.5	136.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

−1.5

COLG

L 83-90

−3.5

SYR

L 50-80

−18.5

NJIT

W 75-43

+18.5

PENN

L 68-84

−20.5

ODU

W 75-71

+0.5

MORG

W 71-66

−0.5

AMER

L 73-75

+2.5

LAS

L 64-69

−6.5

HOW

L 66-74

−14.5

MSM

W 75-67

+3.5

W 74-56

+7.5

COFC

L 63-72

+0.5

UNCW

L 53-65

+0.5

HOF

L 67-70

+1.5

STBK

W 56-37

+13.5

W&M

W 64-58

+9.5

MONM

W 73-51

+27.5

TOW

L 58-59

+6.5

W 83-78

+0.5

HAMP

W 58-51

+4.5

NCAT

W 61-60

−6.5

CAM

L 60-81

−16.5

ELON

W 82-77

+9.5

MONM

L 73-93

−21.5

STBK

L 69-72

−0.5

W 70-61

+10.5

TOW

W 68-62

+8.5

CAM

W 65-60

+3.5

HOF

L 51-62

−2.5

W 84-77

+2.5

MONM

L 57-65

−4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

+1.5

COLG

L 83-90

+29.5

SYR

L 50-80

−13.5

NJIT

W 75-43

−20.5

PENN

L 68-84

−0.5

ODU

W 75-71

+3.5

MORG

W 71-66

−6.5

AMER

L 73-75

+10.5

LAS

L 64-69

+3.5

HOW

L 66-74

+1.5

MSM

W 75-67

+4.5

W 74-56

+0.5

COFC

L 63-72

−7.5

UNCW

L 53-65

−19.5

HOF

L 67-70

+5.5

STBK

W 56-37

−39.5

W&M

W 64-58

−28.5

MONM

W 73-51

−3.5

TOW

L 58-59

−7.5

W 83-78

+21.5

HAMP

W 58-51

−18.5

NCAT

W 61-60

−17.5

CAM

L 60-81

−0.5

ELON

W 82-77

+22.5

MONM

L 73-93

+32.5

STBK

L 69-72

+5.5

W 70-61

−12.5

TOW

W 68-62

−0.5

CAM

W 65-60

−18.5

HOF

L 51-62

−20.5

W 84-77

+22.5

MONM

L 57-65

−14.5

over 14under 18avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maine

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W W L W L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

W L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W W W L W W L W L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U U O U O U O U U U O U U O U U O U U U O O O O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134
Nov 19	@MRMK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsBRWN	L 53-58	+1.5	L −3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 28	@AMER	L 61-74	+7.5	L −5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsLONG	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	vsSIE	L 60-64	+9.5	W +5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 3	@OHIO	L 57-79	+12.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	@M-OH	L 61-93	+17.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@BU	W 69-59	+8.5	W +18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsCAN	L 43-70	-6.5	L −33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 21	@DREX	L 56-74	+10.5	L −7.5	129.5	O 130
Jan 3	vsBRY	L 51-56	+1.5	L −3.5	125.5	U 107
Jan 8	@UMBC	L 62-69	+7.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 131
Jan 10	@NJIT	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 144
Jan 15	@UVM	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsUNH	L 48-65	-1.5	L −18.5	129.5	U 113
Jan 22	vsUALB	W 52-49	+2.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	vsBING	W 79-63	-5.5	W +10.5	124.5	O 142
Jan 31	@UML	L 77-91	+4.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 168
Feb 5	vsUVM	W 76-70	+8.5	W +14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	@BRY	L 67-73	+2.5	L −3.5	128.5	O 140
Feb 12	vsUMBC	L 62-78	+3.5	L −12.5	135.5	O 140
Feb 14	vsNJIT	L 58-67	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 125
Feb 21	@UNH	W 61-58	+3.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 119
Feb 26	@UALB	W 70-59	+4.5	W +15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	@BING	L 67-74	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 141
Mar 3	vsUML	L 56-67	+1.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 7	@NJIT	L 58-60	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

MRMK

L 65-72

−0.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−3.5

AMER

L 61-74

−5.5

LONG

L 61-65

+1.5

SIE

L 60-64

+5.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−9.5

M-OH

L 61-93

−14.5

W 69-59

+18.5

CAN

L 43-70

−33.5

DREX

L 56-74

−7.5

BRY

L 51-56

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-69

+0.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+5.5

UVM

L 62-67

+9.5

UNH

L 48-65

−18.5

UALB

W 52-49

+5.5

BING

W 79-63

+10.5

UML

L 77-91

−9.5

UVM

W 76-70

+14.5

BRY

L 67-73

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-78

−12.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−7.5

UNH

W 61-58

+6.5

UALB

W 70-59

+15.5

BING

L 67-74

−8.5

UML

L 56-67

−9.5

NJIT

L 58-60

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

MRMK

L 65-72

+6.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−16.5

AMER

L 61-74

+1.5

LONG

L 61-65

−12.5

SIE

L 60-64

−3.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−2.5

M-OH

L 61-93

+14.5

W 69-59

−0.5

CAN

L 43-70

−14.5

DREX

L 56-74

+0.5

BRY

L 51-56

−18.5

UMBC

L 62-69

−2.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+13.5

UVM

L 62-67

−1.5

UNH

L 48-65

−16.5

UALB

W 52-49

−30.5

BING

W 79-63

+17.5

UML

L 77-91

+31.5

UVM

W 76-70

+15.5

BRY

L 67-73

+11.5

UMBC

L 62-78

+4.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−12.5

UNH

W 61-58

−16.5

UALB

W 70-59

−1.5

BING

L 67-74

+7.5

UML

L 56-67

−16.5

NJIT

L 58-60

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Drexel has the better starters

Position by position: Drexel 3, Maine 1, even 1

DrexelBetterMaine

G J. Reed7.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 44

DREXSmall

G D. Williams TR8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 23

G A. Abram TR3.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 80

DREXBig

G C. Crawford4.2 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14

G D. Tingler3.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 59

DREXBig

G V. Garcia Adsten TR3.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

F P. Pagonis TR4.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 6

MESmall

F A. Flagg6.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 33

F M. de LaPorterie2.9 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 12

Even

F Y. Bamba2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11

DrexelBetterMaine

DREX offense323rd of 366 · -10.5

MEBig

ME defense191st of 366 · -4.5

DREX defense175th of 366 · -3.9

DREXBig

ME offense357th of 366 · -13.7

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

DREXBig

Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-3.5 · 2 players

MESmall

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestDREX betterME betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Drexel

Guards

J. Reed19 minA. Abram11 min · TRD. Tingler10 minM. Davis2 minL. PittmanNewM. HippsNew

Forwards

P. Pagonis18 min · TRM. de LaPorterie13 minR. Akuta5 minC. EdomwonyinNewD. SimonovicNew

Maine

Guards

D. Williams25 min · TRC. Crawford20 minV. Garcia Adsten18 min · TRD. LopesNewK. BedardNewH. FranzNew

Forwards

A. Flagg25 minY. Bamba12 minA. Evans8 min · TRK. Gribben3 minE. Byther2 minO. Faubert2 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DREX67.3 #328

ME61.2 #364

Points per possession

DREX1.03 #282

ME0.95 #356

Pace (possessions)

DREX65.2 #341

ME64.9 #348

Shooting

Effective FG%

DREX50.6 #204

ME49.6 #263

3-point %

DREX35.5 #90

ME31.2 #314

3-point attempt rate

DREX40.0 #171

ME37.0 #231

Free throw rate

DREX31.6 #265

ME38.4 #93

Possessions

Turnover rate

DREX19.1 #322

ME19.2 #328

Offensive rebound rate

DREX31.2 #156

ME19.7 #364

Assists per game

DREX12.8 #226

ME11.8 #300

Defense

Points allowed

DREX67.6 #26

ME68.5 #39

Points allowed per possession

DREX1.04 #64

ME1.05 #90

Opponent effective FG%

DREX47.1 #22

ME50.6 #136

Opponent 3-point %

DREX30.3 #15

ME29.4 #4

Turnovers forced

DREX16.4 #195

ME19.3 #38

Defensive rebound rate

DREX69.0 #202

ME65.7 #322

Steals per game

DREX5.8 #254

ME7.7 #57

Blocks per game

DREX3.5 #144

ME3.2 #194

DREX		ME
Scoring
67.3 #328	Points per game	61.2 #364
1.03 #282	Points per possession	0.95 #356
65.2 #341	Pace (possessions)	64.9 #348
Shooting
50.6 #204	Effective FG%	49.6 #263
35.5 #90	3-point %	31.2 #314
40.0 #171	3-point attempt rate	37.0 #231
31.6 #265	Free throw rate	38.4 #93
Possessions
19.1 #322	Turnover rate	19.2 #328
31.2 #156	Offensive rebound rate	19.7 #364
12.8 #226	Assists per game	11.8 #300
Defense
67.6 #26	Points allowed	68.5 #39
1.04 #64	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #90
47.1 #22	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #136
30.3 #15	Opponent 3-point %	29.4 #4
16.4 #195	Turnovers forced	19.3 #38
69.0 #202	Defensive rebound rate	65.7 #322
5.8 #254	Steals per game	7.7 #57
3.5 #144	Blocks per game	3.2 #194

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drexel

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Monmouth57–65
Wvs Northeastern84–77
L@ Hofstra51–62
Wvs Campbell65–60
Wvs Towson68–62

A week or more of rest.

Maine

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ NJIT58–60
Lvs UMass Lowell56–67
L@ Binghamton67–74
W@ UAlbany70–59
W@ New Hampshire61–58

A week or more of rest.

Drexel Dragons at Maine Black Bears

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Drexel

Maine

Drexel has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Drexel

Maine