1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. MRST @ ARMY
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Marist Red Foxes at Army Black Knights

Christl Arena · at Army
#235MRSTMarist
@
#288ARMYArmy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MRSTThis seasonARMY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRST 72–70 · win probability MRST 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MRST has more of the edges

MRST 4, ARMY 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MRSTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MRST 49.3 and allows 45.6; ARMY 49.3 and allows 55.1
MRSTBig
Three-pointers
MRST hits 32.2% and allows 28.6%; ARMY hits 32.0% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 34.6% and 53.3% of their shots
MRSTBig
ARMY offense vs MRST defense
Offense 271st of 366 against a defense 135th, on the model’s ratings
MRSTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MRST 17.0%, ARMY 17.2%. Forced: MRST 19.4%, ARMY 15.4%
ARMYSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MRST 31%, ARMY 65%. Transfers in: MRST 1, ARMY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ARMYSmall
Home court
ARMY at home. This season: ARMY 0-0 at home, MRST 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: MRST plays 66.8 a game (286th fastest), ARMY 68.6 (200th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
MRST has played the 339th-hardest schedule, ARMY the 302nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MRST 25.7, ARMY 26.8. Allowed: MRST 37.6, ARMY 39.6
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MRST 29.1%, ARMY 29.6%. Defensive: MRST 71.7%, ARMY 72.3%
Even
MRST offense vs ARMY defense
Offense 322nd of 366 against a defense 304th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MRST -1.4—
Total—141.8—
Projected score—MRST 71.6 · ARMY 70.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMRST -0.9—
1H total66.4—
1H projected scoreMRST 33.6 · ARMY 32.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Marist has the better starters

Position by position: Marist 2, Army 1, even 2
MaristBetterArmy
G J. Collins-Roberts7.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 27
ARMYSmall
G R. Curry13.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 57
G J. Graham TR11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43
MRSTSmall
G K. McCarthy7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 13
F M. Parker5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
MRSTSmall
F J. Holloway10.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 37
C T. Watson6.1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Laczkowski5.3 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 38
C J. Gabriel2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Benner1.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
MaristBetterArmy
MRST offense322nd of 366 · -10.5
Even
ARMY defense304th of 366 · -7.8
MRST defense135th of 366 · -2.6
MRSTBig
ARMY offense271st of 366 · -8.2
Backcourt-3.3 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-3.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.0 · 3 players
MRSTSmall
Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMRST betterARMY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Marist
Guards
J. Collins-Roberts31 minJ. Graham28 min · TRJ. WilliamsNewC. SweeneyNewB. ArnoldNewD. ChessNew
Forwards
M. Parker15 minE. OnyiaNewL. RodriguezNew
Centers
T. Watson11 minJ. Gabriel7 minL. FranzNew
Army
Guards
R. Curry34 minK. McCarthy24 minD. Watt5 minJ. Green3 minB. O'Keefe2 minJ. EllisNew
Forwards
J. Holloway29 minT. Laczkowski22 minD. Benner6 minN. Ikechi3 minD. Murans3 minH. RasmussenNew
Centers
P. HendersonNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MRSTARMY
Scoring
68.9 #301Points per game70.8 #268
1.04 #276Points per possession1.03 #281
66.8 #286Pace (possessions)68.6 #200
Shooting
49.3 #276Effective FG%49.3 #279
32.2 #2723-point %32.0 #278
34.6 #2853-point attempt rate53.3 #3
25.7 #360Free throw rate26.8 #352
Possessions
17.0 #202Turnover rate17.2 #221
29.1 #233Offensive rebound rate29.6 #219
15.0 #89Assists per game14.5 #118
Defense
63.9 #4Points allowed79.0 #298
0.95 #3Points allowed per possession1.15 #321
45.6 #5Opponent effective FG%55.1 #334
28.6 #2Opponent 3-point %35.5 #285
19.4 #35Turnovers forced15.4 #257
71.7 #77Defensive rebound rate72.3 #54
7.1 #116Steals per game5.4 #307
3.1 #200Blocks per game1.6 #359
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Marist

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack57–58
  • Wvs Quinnipiac77–75
  • Lvs Saint Peter's56–63
  • Wvs Sacred Heart65–63
  • W@ Manhattan84–70

A week or more of rest.

Army

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Bucknell55–65
  • L@ Lafayette77–83
  • Lvs Bucknell73–75
  • Lvs Navy63–81
  • W@ Loyola MD87–77

A week or more of rest.