1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. SPU @ UML
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Saint Peter's Peacocks at UMass Lowell River Hawks

Kennedy Family Athletic Complex · at UMass Lowell
#269SPUSaint Peter's
@
#307UMLUMass Lowell
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SPUThis seasonUML
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SPU 72–71 · win probability SPU 54%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SPU has more of the edges

SPU 4, UML 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SPUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SPU 17.7%, UML 18.0%. Forced: SPU 20.0%, UML 14.2%
UMLBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SPU 35.5, UML 34.9. Allowed: SPU 46.4, UML 28.3
SPUSmall
UML offense vs SPU defense
Offense 286th of 366 against a defense 182nd, on the model’s ratings
SPUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SPU 46.4 and allows 48.1; UML 49.8 and allows 53.5
UMLSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SPU 37.0%, UML 32.7%. Defensive: SPU 65.3%, UML 70.7%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: SPU plays 66.1 a game (308th fastest), UML 68.9 (189th). Faster games mean more points
SPUSmall
Three-pointers
SPU hits 31.0% and allows 32.1%; UML hits 32.2% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 38.8% and 31.3% of their shots
UMLSmall
Home court
UML at home. This season: UML 0-0 at home, SPU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SPU 32%, UML 16%. Transfers in: SPU 5, UML 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
SPU has played the 335th-hardest schedule, UML the 312th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
SPU offense vs UML defense
Offense 336th of 366 against a defense 318th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SPU -1.1—
Total—143.1—
Projected score—SPU 72.1 · UML 71

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSPU -0.8—
1H total67.0—
1H projected scoreSPU 33.9 · UML 33.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Saint Peter's has the better starters

Position by position: Saint Peter's 1, UMass Lowell 0, even 4
Saint Peter'sBetterUMass Lowell
G B. Wilson TR9.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 29
SPUSmall
G C. Jones TR4.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6
G B. Eaton11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 56
Even
G J. Newton TR7.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
G E. Perkins4 pts · 3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 9
No call
G I. Walter1.6 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
G S. Simpson3.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F V. Okojie4.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
F T. Patterson TR1.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Harris TR5.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 59
Saint Peter'sBetterUMass Lowell
SPU offense336th of 366 · -11.0
Even
UML defense318th of 366 · -8.2
SPU defense182nd of 366 · -4.1
SPUSmall
UML offense286th of 366 · -8.9
Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players
UMLSmall
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
SPUSmall
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
Bench-1.1 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestSPU betterUML betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Saint Peter's
Guards
B. Wilson28 min · TRB. Eaton28 minE. Perkins26 minS. Simpson11 minP. Glassnor6 min · TRK. WalkerNew
Forwards
T. Patterson8 min · TRB. Tshilobo2 min · TRA. WatsonNewX. ThomasNewJ. MathewsNew
Centers
J. Noudjihidi7 min · TR
UMass Lowell
Guards
C. Jones18 min · TRJ. Newton17 min · TRI. Walter8 minK. GilesNewJ. CannadyNewM. EllisNew
Forwards
V. Okojie18 minJ. Harris11 min · TRJ. Roberson7 minD. HandNewE. DialloNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SPUUML
Scoring
69.2 #296Points per game71.7 #253
1.05 #252Points per possession1.04 #272
66.1 #308Pace (possessions)68.9 #189
Shooting
46.4 #347Effective FG%49.8 #247
31.0 #3213-point %32.2 #269
38.8 #1973-point attempt rate31.3 #336
35.5 #163Free throw rate34.9 #183
Possessions
17.7 #251Turnover rate18.0 #269
37.0 #16Offensive rebound rate32.7 #98
12.5 #253Assists per game11.9 #294
Defense
69.1 #48Points allowed77.4 #249
1.04 #78Points allowed per possession1.13 #277
48.1 #39Opponent effective FG%53.5 #284
32.1 #68Opponent 3-point %34.6 #226
20.0 #23Turnovers forced14.2 #329
65.3 #330Defensive rebound rate70.7 #126
8.8 #13Steals per game5.1 #326
3.9 #92Blocks per game3.0 #222
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Saint Peter's

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fairfield55–74
  • W@ Marist63–56
  • Wvs Manhattan75–65
  • L@ Siena63–72
  • L@ Iona64–72

A week or more of rest.

UMass Lowell

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-8 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC69–91
  • Wvs UAlbany81–76
  • W@ Maine67–56
  • Lvs UMBC60–84
  • L@ Vermont64–66

A week or more of rest.