Florida Gators vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 4:30 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

#1FLAFlorida AP #1

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Florida and Notre Dame
FLA	This season	ND
0-0	Record	1-0
0-0	ATS	1-0
0-0	O/U	1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FLA 90–66 · win probability FLA 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

FLA 7, ND 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FLABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: FLA 54.1 and allows 46.1; ND 52.3 and allows 51.8

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: FLA plays 72.0 a game (34th fastest), ND 67.7 (239th). Faster games mean more points

FLASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: FLA 39.0, ND 34.1. Allowed: FLA 34.0, ND 36.2

FLASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FLA 43.4%, ND 31.2%. Defensive: FLA 75.2%, ND 73.3%

FLASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FLA 85%, ND 38%. Transfers in: FLA 1, ND 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NDSmall

Three-pointers

FLA hits 31.2% and allows 32.1%; ND hits 35.6% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 37.0% and 43.5% of their shots

FLASmall

ND offense vs FLA defense

Offense 76th of 366 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

FLASmall

FLA offense vs ND defense

Offense 1st of 366 against a defense 63rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

FLA has played the 9th-hardest schedule, ND the 69th. A record against a soft schedule means less

FLASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FLA 16.4%, ND 16.9%. Forced: FLA 15.2%, ND 14.0%

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FLA -24.1	—
Total	—	156.3	—
Projected score	—	FLA 90.2 · ND 66.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FLA -14.4	—
1H total	73.0	—
1H projected score	FLA 43.7 · ND 29.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
FLA WLLWL	19-16	54%	3-7	—
ND LLWLL	15-16	48%	1-2	—

Venue/role: FLA neutral site; ND neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA UUOOU	15-20	43%	27-8
ND OOOOO	22-9	71%	13-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ND	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs MILW	W81–45WU
Dec 1	vs DUKE	L66–67WU
Dec 6	vs UVM	No recent meeting

Notre Dame

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs CMU	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs STO	W89–60WO
Dec 2	vs VAN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Florida

35 games played

Straight up

27-8

77% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-877%

L W W W W L W L L W W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L L L W L L L W W L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O U U U U O U U O U O U O U U O O O U U U O U U O U O U O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARIZ	L 87-93	-3.5	L −9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 6	vsUNF	W 104-64	-43.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	vsFSU	W 78-76	-17.5	L −15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 16	vsMIA	W 82-68	-10.5	W +3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 21	vsMRMK	W 80-45	-36.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 27	vsTCU	L 80-84	-11.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsPROV	W 90-78	-12.5	L −0.5	169.5	U 168
Dec 2	@DUKE	L 66-67	+9.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 133
Dec 9	vsCONN	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsGW	W 80-70	-14.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 17	vsSFPA	W 102-61	-44.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsCOLG	W 90-60	-27.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsDART	W 94-72	-35.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 166
Jan 3	@MIZ	L 74-76	-7.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsUGA	W 92-77	-9.5	W +5.5	172.5	U 169
Jan 10	vsTENN	W 91-67	-4.5	W +19.5	151.5	O 158
Jan 13	@OU	W 96-79	-7.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	@VAN	W 98-94	-1.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 192
Jan 20	vsLSU	W 79-61	-15.5	W +2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsAUB	L 67-76	-11.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 143
Jan 28	@SC	W 95-48	-13.5	W +33.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 1	vsALA	W 100-77	-9.5	W +13.5	176.5	O 177
Feb 7	@TA&M	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	167.5	U 153
Feb 11	@UGA	W 86-66	-8.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsUK	W 92-83	-12.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsSC	W 76-62	-23.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	@MISS	W 94-75	-13.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 25	@TEX	W 84-71	-6.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 28	vsARK	W 111-77	-9.5	W +24.5	169.5	O 188
Mar 3	vsMSST	W 108-74	-20.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	@UK	W 84-77	-5.5	W +1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 13	vsUK	W 71-63	-10.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 14	vsVAN	L 74-91	-7.5	L −24.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 20	vsPV	W 114-55	-35.5	W +23.5	154.5	O 169
Mar 22	vsIOWA	L 72-73	-10.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

−9.5

UNF

W 104-64

−3.5

FSU

W 78-76

−15.5

MIA

W 82-68

+3.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−1.5

TCU

L 80-84

−15.5

PROV

W 90-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 66-67

+8.5

CONN

L 73-77

+0.5

W 80-70

−4.5

SFPA

W 102-61

−3.5

COLG

W 90-60

+2.5

DART

W 94-72

−13.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−9.5

UGA

W 92-77

+5.5

TENN

W 91-67

+19.5

W 96-79

+9.5

VAN

W 98-94

+2.5

LSU

W 79-61

+2.5

AUB

L 67-76

−20.5

W 95-48

+33.5

ALA

W 100-77

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-67

+13.5

UGA

W 86-66

+11.5

W 92-83

−3.5

W 76-62

−9.5

MISS

W 94-75

+5.5

TEX

W 84-71

+6.5

ARK

W 111-77

+24.5

MSST

W 108-74

+13.5

W 84-77

+1.5

W 71-63

−2.5

VAN

L 74-91

−24.5

W 114-55

+23.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−11.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

+15.5

UNF

W 104-64

−1.5

FSU

W 78-76

−26.5

MIA

W 82-68

−21.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−33.5

TCU

L 80-84

+8.5

PROV

W 90-78

−1.5

DUKE

L 66-67

−24.5

CONN

L 73-77

+4.5

W 80-70

−12.5

SFPA

W 102-61

+6.5

COLG

W 90-60

−6.5

DART

W 94-72

+5.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−4.5

UGA

W 92-77

−3.5

TENN

W 91-67

+6.5

W 96-79

+17.5

VAN

W 98-94

+27.5

LSU

W 79-61

−18.5

AUB

L 67-76

−16.5

W 95-48

−8.5

ALA

W 100-77

+0.5

TA&M

W 86-67

−14.5

UGA

W 86-66

−12.5

W 92-83

+20.5

W 76-62

−18.5

MISS

W 94-75

+16.5

TEX

W 84-71

−2.5

ARK

W 111-77

+18.5

MSST

W 108-74

+20.5

W 84-77

−1.5

W 71-63

−27.5

VAN

L 74-91

+3.5

W 114-55

+14.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−0.5

over 15under 20avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Notre Dame

31 games played

Straight up

13-18

42% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-9

71% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1842%

W W W L W L W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

W W L W L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-971%

O O U U O U U U O O O O U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O O O O O

8 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 16	@OSU	L 63-64	+9.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 19	vsBELL	W 86-79	-24.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	vsKU	L 61-71	+5.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsRUTG	W 68-63	-6.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsHOU	L 56-66	+11.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsMIZ	W 76-71	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 5	@TCU	W 87-85	+6.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 10	vsIDHO	W 80-65	-11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 145
Dec 13	vsEVAN	W 82-58	-14.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 21	vsPFW	L 69-72	-11.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 141
Dec 30	@STAN	W 47-40	+6.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	@CAL	L 71-72	+3.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsCLEM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 13	vsMIA	L 69-81	+5.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 17	@VT	L 76-89	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 21	@UNC	L 69-91	+13.5	L −8.5	149.5	O 160
Jan 24	vsBC	W 68-64	-7.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 27	vsUVA	L 97-100	+9.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 197
Jan 31	@SYR	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 4	@LOU	L 65-76	+19.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 7	vsFSU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 10	@SMU	L 81-89	+10.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 170
Feb 14	vsGT	W 89-74	-5.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 21	@PITT	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 24	vsDUKE	L 56-100	+16.5	L −27.5	141.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsNCSU	W 96-90	+6.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 186
Mar 4	vsSTAN	L 78-86	+1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 164
Mar 7	@BC	L 69-77	-1.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

OSU

L 63-64

+8.5

BELL

W 86-79

−17.5

L 61-71

−4.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−1.5

HOU

L 56-66

+1.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+6.5

TCU

W 87-85

+8.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+3.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+9.5

PFW

L 69-72

−14.5

STAN

W 47-40

+13.5

CAL

L 71-72

+2.5

CLEM

L 61-76

−11.5

MIA

L 69-81

−6.5

L 76-89

−6.5

UNC

L 69-91

−8.5

W 68-64

−3.5

UVA

L 97-100

+6.5

SYR

L 72-86

−7.5

LOU

L 65-76

+8.5

FSU

L 79-82

−4.5

SMU

L 81-89

+2.5

W 89-74

+9.5

PITT

L 68-73

−1.5

DUKE

L 56-100

−27.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+12.5

STAN

L 78-86

−6.5

L 69-77

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

OSU

L 63-64

−29.5

BELL

W 86-79

+14.5

L 61-71

−11.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−9.5

HOU

L 56-66

−10.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+0.5

TCU

W 87-85

+30.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+0.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+3.5

PFW

L 69-72

−8.5

STAN

W 47-40

−56.5

CAL

L 71-72

+4.5

CLEM

L 61-76

+3.5

MIA

L 69-81

+6.5

L 76-89

+21.5

UNC

L 69-91

+10.5

W 68-64

−5.5

UVA

L 97-100

+51.5

SYR

L 72-86

+10.5

LOU

L 65-76

−14.5

FSU

L 79-82

+6.5

SMU

L 81-89

+15.5

W 89-74

+12.5

PITT

L 68-73

+0.5

DUKE

L 56-100

+14.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+32.5

STAN

L 78-86

+16.5

L 69-77

+4.5

over 22under 9avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Florida 3, Notre Dame 0, even 2

FloridaBetterNotre Dame

G D. Aberdeen TR13.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 90

FLASmall

G B. Shrewsberry15 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 73

G B. Fland11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 89

FLASmall

G E. Roberts TR11 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Score 64

F T. Haugh17.1 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 97

Even

G B. Smith TR16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 91

F A. Condon15.1 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98

FLABig

G D. Brown TR6.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 43

C R. Chinyelu10.9 pts · 11.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 97

Even

C L. Duncomb TR18.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 99

FloridaBetterNotre Dame

FLA offense1st of 366 · +17.0

FLASmall

ND defense63rd of 366 · +1.2

FLA defense4th of 366 · +10.4

FLASmall

ND offense76th of 366 · +1.1

Backcourt+5.2 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+17.1 · 3 players

FLABig

Frontcourt+7.1 · 1 player

Bench+3.0 · 5 players

FLABig

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestFLA betterND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Florida

Guards

D. Aberdeen31 min · TRB. Fland30 minU. Klavzar21 minI. Brown13 minC. Ingram6 minA. Lloyd5 min

Forwards

T. Haugh33 minA. Condon31 minD. PetrovicNewA. ButajevasNew

Centers

R. Chinyelu25 minV. Mikic3 minJ. LayNew

Notre Dame

Guards

B. Shrewsberry36 minE. Roberts32 min · TRB. Smith31 min · TRD. Brown24 min · TRL. Imes21 minB. Stevens2 min

Forwards

B. Koehler16 minB. Ruglass Dortch15 min · TRY. DialloNewL. DevineNew

Centers

L. Duncomb25 min · TRT. AhnemanNewG. SolongoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FLA87.1 #5

ND74.5 #180

Points per possession

FLA1.21 #7

ND1.10 #143

Pace (possessions)

FLA72.0 #34

ND67.7 #239

Shooting

Effective FG%

FLA54.1 #63

ND52.3 #133

3-point %

FLA31.2 #315

ND35.6 #82

3-point attempt rate

FLA37.0 #230

ND43.5 #101

Free throw rate

FLA39.0 #80

ND34.1 #206

Possessions

Turnover rate

FLA16.4 #162

ND16.9 #199

Offensive rebound rate

FLA43.4 #2

ND31.2 #155

Assists per game

FLA17.0 #26

ND12.3 #267

Defense

Points allowed

FLA71.5 #93

ND75.3 #197

Points allowed per possession

FLA0.99 #19

ND1.11 #255

Opponent effective FG%

FLA46.1 #10

ND51.8 #200

Opponent 3-point %

FLA32.1 #66

ND33.2 #138

Turnovers forced

FLA15.2 #269

ND14.0 #337

Defensive rebound rate

FLA75.2 #7

ND73.3 #27

Steals per game

FLA6.6 #158

ND4.5 #355

Blocks per game

FLA5.0 #16

ND2.2 #328

FLA		ND
Scoring
87.1 #5	Points per game	74.5 #180
1.21 #7	Points per possession	1.10 #143
72.0 #34	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #239
Shooting
54.1 #63	Effective FG%	52.3 #133
31.2 #315	3-point %	35.6 #82
37.0 #230	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #101
39.0 #80	Free throw rate	34.1 #206
Possessions
16.4 #162	Turnover rate	16.9 #199
43.4 #2	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #155
17.0 #26	Assists per game	12.3 #267
Defense
71.5 #93	Points allowed	75.3 #197
0.99 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #255
46.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #200
32.1 #66	Opponent 3-point %	33.2 #138
15.2 #269	Turnovers forced	14.0 #337
75.2 #7	Defensive rebound rate	73.3 #27
6.6 #158	Steals per game	4.5 #355
5.0 #16	Blocks per game	2.2 #328

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Florida

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa72–73
Wvs Prairie View114–55
Lvs Vanderbilt74–91
Wvs Kentucky71–63
W@ Kentucky84–77

A week or more of rest.

Notre Dame

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston College69–77
Lvs Stanford78–86
Wvs NC State96–90
Lvs Duke56–100
L@ Pitt68–73

A week or more of rest.

Florida Gators vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Florida

Notre Dame

Florida has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Florida

Notre Dame