1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. LIP @ PUR
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Lipscomb Bisons at Purdue Boilermakers

Mackey Arena · at Purdue
#214LIPLipscomb
@
#23PURPurdue
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LIPThis seasonPUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PUR 87–62 · win probability PUR 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

LIP 0, PUR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
LIP has played the 267th-hardest schedule, PUR the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PURBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LIP 25.8%, PUR 36.4%. Defensive: LIP 69.8%, PUR 72.9%
PURBig
PUR offense vs LIP defense
Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 226th, on the model’s ratings
PURBig
LIP offense vs PUR defense
Offense 191st of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: LIP plays 70.8 a game (83rd fastest), PUR 65.4 (333rd). Faster games mean more points
PURSmall
Home court
PUR at home. This season: PUR 0-0 at home, LIP 0-0 away
PURSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: LIP 54.1 and allows 53.2; PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4
Even
Three-pointers
LIP hits 35.7% and allows 34.3%; PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 47.9% and 40.2% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LIP 26.0, PUR 28.6. Allowed: LIP 29.0, PUR 25.5
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LIP 16.0%, PUR 13.7%. Forced: LIP 17.7%, PUR 15.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LIP 44%, PUR 43%. Transfers in: LIP 2, PUR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PUR -24.8—
Total—149.0—
Projected score—LIP 62.1 · PUR 86.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPUR -14.6—
1H total69.7—
1H projected scoreLIP 27.5 · PUR 42.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Purdue has the better starters

Position by position: Lipscomb 0, Purdue 3, even 2
LipscombBetterPurdue
G T. Simpkins TR12.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
Even
G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
G M. Esmeraldo9.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 6.9 ast Score 81
Even
G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
F T. Sargiunas9.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 28
PURBig
G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
F O. Ashkenazi2.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 3
PURBig
G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
F T. Byrne TR3.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 4
PURBig
C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88
LipscombBetterPurdue
LIP offense191st of 366 · -5.9
PURBig
PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0
LIP defense226th of 366 · -6.0
PURBig
PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+3.0 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt-6.7 · 3 players
PURBig
Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player
Bench-1.1 · 1 player
PURSmall
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestLIP betterPUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lipscomb
Guards
T. Simpkins32 min · TRM. Esmeraldo31 minZ. WellsNewV. VisnjicNewH. TidareNewK. QuinnNew
Forwards
T. Sargiunas24 minO. Ashkenazi20 minT. Byrne16 min · TRK. Okpara13 minL. JackNewD. MartinNew
Purdue
Guards
C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min
Forwards
S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew
Centers
D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LIPPUR
Scoring
77.6 #104Points per game81.6 #35
1.10 #142Points per possession1.25 #2
70.8 #83Pace (possessions)65.4 #333
Shooting
54.1 #67Effective FG%57.6 #10
35.7 #753-point %38.3 #11
47.9 #243-point attempt rate40.2 #164
26.0 #357Free throw rate28.6 #336
Possessions
16.0 #142Turnover rate13.7 #16
25.8 #327Offensive rebound rate36.4 #19
17.2 #19Assists per game19.6 #2
Defense
77.0 #242Points allowed70.5 #65
1.09 #187Points allowed per possession1.08 #162
53.2 #273Opponent effective FG%52.4 #232
34.3 #207Opponent 3-point %34.1 #192
17.7 #113Turnovers forced15.3 #263
69.8 #171Defensive rebound rate72.9 #39
6.8 #141Steals per game5.5 #297
2.6 #291Blocks per game2.8 #257
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lipscomb

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs FGCU53–77
  • W@ E Kentucky80–77
  • L@ West Georgia78–84
  • Wvs North Alabama73–51
  • W@ Bellarmine75–72

A week or more of rest.

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona64–79
  • Wvs Texas79–77
  • Wvs Miami79–69
  • Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
  • Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.