1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. DETM @ XAV
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Detroit Mercy Titans at Xavier Musketeers

Cintas Center · at Xavier
#277DETMDetroit Mercy
@
#49XAVXavier
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETMThis seasonXAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects XAV 91–68 · win probability XAV 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: XAV has more of the edges

DETM 2, XAV 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
XAVBig
XAV offense vs DETM defense
Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 310th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DETM has played the 208th-hardest schedule, XAV the 33rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
XAVBig
DETM offense vs XAV defense
Offense 236th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings
XAVSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DETM 16.0%, XAV 14.0%. Forced: DETM 14.4%, XAV 15.5%
DETMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DETM 33.3%, XAV 26.5%. Defensive: DETM 69.2%, XAV 70.5%
DETMSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DETM 49%, XAV 14%. Transfers in: DETM 0, XAV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
XAVSmall
Home court
XAV at home. This season: XAV 0-0 at home, DETM 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: DETM plays 69.7 a game (132nd fastest), XAV 71.8 (44th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DETM 32.6, XAV 28.1. Allowed: DETM 37.6, XAV 32.6
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DETM 49.5 and allows 52.2; XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1
Even
Three-pointers
DETM hits 35.1% and allows 33.3%; XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 30.7% and 40.6% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—XAV -23.0—
Total—158.6—
Projected score—DETM 67.8 · XAV 90.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadXAV -13.5—
1H total74.1—
1H projected scoreDETM 30.3 · XAV 43.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Xavier has the better starters

Position by position: Detroit Mercy 0, Xavier 3, even 2
Detroit MercyBetterXavier
G T. Spratt10.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 54
XAVBig
G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G A. Carter11.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82
G L. Stone6.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9
XAVBig
F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66
F L. Maiden6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28
XAVBig
F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75
C X. Istomin-Monroe1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74
Detroit MercyBetterXavier
DETM offense236th of 366 · -7.2
XAVBig
XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2
DETM defense310th of 366 · -8.1
XAVBig
XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
XAVBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players
XAVBig
Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
XAVBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDETM betterXAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Detroit Mercy
Guards
T. Spratt25 minA. Carter21 minL. Stone21 minJ. Cotton7 minJ. BriggsNewE. PalssonNew
Forwards
L. Maiden16 minD. FavorNewV. SemerychNewC. HouserNewT. OwensNew
Centers
X. Istomin-Monroe8 min
Xavier
Guards
C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew
Forwards
N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew
Centers
K. WestphalNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DETMXAV
Scoring
76.3 #135Points per game78.4 #91
1.09 #153Points per possession1.09 #149
69.7 #132Pace (possessions)71.8 #44
Shooting
49.5 #267Effective FG%51.8 #155
35.1 #1083-point %36.5 #39
30.7 #3433-point attempt rate40.6 #156
32.6 #247Free throw rate28.1 #341
Possessions
16.0 #138Turnover rate14.0 #21
33.3 #81Offensive rebound rate26.5 #311
13.1 #208Assists per game17.4 #15
Defense
78.7 #285Points allowed80.6 #329
1.13 #290Points allowed per possession1.12 #276
52.2 #223Opponent effective FG%54.1 #302
33.3 #140Opponent 3-point %34.8 #237
14.4 #324Turnovers forced15.5 #253
69.2 #193Defensive rebound rate70.5 #136
5.8 #264Steals per game6.5 #181
3.3 #182Blocks per game4.0 #77
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Detroit Mercy

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St63–66
  • Wvs Robert Morris70–64
  • Wvs Milwaukee84–63
  • W@ Oakland95–89
  • L@ Robert Morris62–73

A week or more of rest.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn68–93
  • Wvs Marquette89–87
  • L@ Villanova78–91
  • Lvs Seton Hall68–77
  • Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.