Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Boston College Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ETConte Forum · at Boston College

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: MD Eastern and Boston College
UMES	This season	BC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BC 84–56 · win probability BC 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BC has more of the edges

UMES 0, BC 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BCBig

UMES offense vs BC defense

Offense 364th of 366 against a defense 83rd, on the model’s ratings

BCBig

BC offense vs UMES defense

Offense 96th of 366 against a defense 350th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UMES has played the 240th-hardest schedule, BC the 79th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UMES 29.4, BC 32.4. Allowed: UMES 43.0, BC 34.6

BCSmall

Three-pointers

UMES hits 29.0% and allows 33.5%; BC hits 29.4% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 33.5% and 42.4% of their shots

BCSmall

Home court

BC at home. This season: BC 0-0 at home, UMES 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UMES 32.4%, BC 28.3%. Defensive: UMES 66.4%, BC 71.4%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: UMES plays 65.8 a game (321st fastest), BC 67.5 (257th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UMES 47.8 and allows 50.8; BC 47.0 and allows 48.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UMES 23.7%, BC 15.4%. Forced: UMES 18.0%, BC 14.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UMES 9%, BC 1%. Transfers in: UMES 1, BC 11. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BC -28.4	—
Total	—	140.4	—
Projected score	—	UMES 56 · BC 84.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BC -16.7	—
1H total	65.7	—
1H projected score	UMES 24.5 · BC 41.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UMES LWLLL	15-15	50%	10-10	—
BC LWLWW	15-16	48%	9-8	—

Venue/role: UMES away; BC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UMES OUOUO	13-17	43%	7-23
BC OUUUO	12-19	39%	11-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UMES	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
BC	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

MD Eastern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ URI	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ DEP	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs IUIN	No recent meeting

Boston College

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs UNH	L71–74LO
Nov 18	@ HARV	W73–60WU
Nov 22	vs NJIT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

MD Eastern

30 games played

Straight up

7-23

23% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2323%

L L L L W L W L L L L L L L L W W W W L L L L L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1550%

W L W L W W W W W L W W L L W W W W L L W L L L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

U U U U O U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U U U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GT	L 52-56	+28.5	W +24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 5	@UGA	L 29-94	+33.5	L −31.5	142.5	U 123
Nov 11	@NEB	L 50-69	+35.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 14	@CREI	L 45-84	+33.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 18	@LONG	W 83-82	+17.5	W +18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 21	@CAN	L 57-60	+3.5	W +0.5	128.5	U 117
Nov 22	vsBING	W 63-52	+5.5	W +16.5	125.5	U 115
Nov 25	vsHAMP	L 68-74	+6.5	W +0.5	124.5	O 142
Dec 2	@ECU	L 56-68	+12.5	W +0.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 6	@AMER	L 60-78	+10.5	L −7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 9	@UVA	L 60-84	+36.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 144
Dec 12	@NCAT	L 79-82	+7.5	W +4.5	130.5	O 161
Dec 14	@VT	L 53-82	+27.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 17	@WAG	L 64-78	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	O 142
Dec 22	@TEX	L 71-94	+33.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 165
Jan 3	vsMORG	W 66-49	-6.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 115
Jan 10	vsHOW	W 69-57	+2.5	W +14.5	130.5	U 126
Jan 12	@NORF	W 74-70	+5.5	W +9.5	132.5	O 144
Jan 17	vsCOPP	W 70-67	-10.5	L −7.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 31	@DSU	L 57-65	-2.5	L −10.5	128.5	U 122
Feb 2	@NCCU	L 63-65	+2.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 128
Feb 4	@SCST	L 54-63	-3.5	L −12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@MORG	L 71-79	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 14	@HOW	L 53-79	+10.5	L −15.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 16	vsNORF	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	136.5	U 136
Feb 21	@COPP	L 65-71	-3.5	L −9.5	128.5	O 136
Feb 28	vsSCST	W 69-57	-5.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	vsNCCU	L 73-77	-2.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 150
Mar 5	vsDSU	L 56-57	-5.5	L −6.5	124.5	U 113
Mar 12	vsNCCU	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	131.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 52-56

+24.5

UGA

L 29-94

−31.5

NEB

L 50-69

+16.5

CREI

L 45-84

−5.5

LONG

W 83-82

+18.5

CAN

L 57-60

+0.5

BING

W 63-52

+16.5

HAMP

L 68-74

+0.5

ECU

L 56-68

+0.5

AMER

L 60-78

−7.5

UVA

L 60-84

+12.5

NCAT

L 79-82

+4.5

L 53-82

−1.5

WAG

L 64-78

−9.5

TEX

L 71-94

+10.5

MORG

W 66-49

+10.5

HOW

W 69-57

+14.5

NORF

W 74-70

+9.5

COPP

W 70-67

−7.5

DSU

L 57-65

−10.5

NCCU

L 63-65

+0.5

SCST

L 54-63

−12.5

MORG

L 71-79

−9.5

HOW

L 53-79

−15.5

NORF

L 66-70

−2.5

COPP

L 65-71

−9.5

SCST

W 69-57

+6.5

NCCU

L 73-77

−6.5

DSU

L 56-57

−6.5

NCCU

L 76-83

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 52-56

−31.5

UGA

L 29-94

−19.5

NEB

L 50-69

−27.5

CREI

L 45-84

−6.5

LONG

W 83-82

+26.5

CAN

L 57-60

−11.5

BING

W 63-52

−10.5

HAMP

L 68-74

+17.5

ECU

L 56-68

−3.5

AMER

L 60-78

+7.5

UVA

L 60-84

+9.5

NCAT

L 79-82

+30.5

L 53-82

−4.5

WAG

L 64-78

+10.5

TEX

L 71-94

+26.5

MORG

W 66-49

−23.5

HOW

W 69-57

−4.5

NORF

W 74-70

+11.5

COPP

W 70-67

+3.5

DSU

L 57-65

−6.5

NCCU

L 63-65

−6.5

SCST

L 54-63

−16.5

MORG

L 71-79

+9.5

HOW

L 53-79

−0.5

NORF

L 66-70

−0.5

COPP

L 65-71

+7.5

SCST

W 69-57

−6.5

NCCU

L 73-77

+16.5

DSU

L 56-57

−11.5

NCCU

L 76-83

+27.5

over 13under 17avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boston College

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

L W L W W L L W L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1648%

L W L W L L L W L L L L L L W W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1939%

O U U O U U O U U O O U U U O U U O U U U U O U O O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@FAU	L 78-83	+1.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 6	vsCIT	W 76-47	-15.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsCCSU	L 59-60	-17.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 119
Nov 15	@TEM	W 76-71	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 18	vsHAMP	W 63-52	-12.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 115
Nov 21	vsDAV	L 49-59	-1.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 108
Nov 23	vsTULN	L 90-93	-2.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 183
Nov 26	vsHARV	W 73-60	-7.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 133
Dec 3	vsLSU	L 69-78	+7.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 6	vsNHVN	W 67-63	-17.5	L −13.5	126.5	O 130
Dec 10	vsMASS	L 74-76	-1.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 150
Dec 22	vsFDU	W 72-61	-16.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 28	vsLEM	W 72-64	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 3	@GT	L 53-65	+6.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 6	vsNCSU	L 71-79	+11.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 10	@LOU	L 62-75	+21.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 137
Jan 13	@CLEM	L 50-74	+15.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 124
Jan 17	vsSYR	W 81-73	+5.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 21	vsPITT	W 65-62	+2.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 127
Jan 24	@ND	L 64-68	+7.5	W +3.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsUVA	L 66-73	+13.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 3	@DUKE	L 49-67	+26.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 116
Feb 7	vsMIA	L 68-74	+8.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 11	vsSTAN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 134
Feb 14	vsCAL	L 75-86	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 161
Feb 17	@FSU	L 72-80	+11.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 152
Feb 21	@SMU	L 70-94	+15.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 25	vsWAKE	W 68-67	+3.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 135
Feb 28	@MIA	L 54-76	+15.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 130
Mar 3	@VT	L 63-72	+11.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 7	vsND	W 77-69	+1.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAU

L 78-83

−3.5

CIT

W 76-47

+13.5

CCSU

L 59-60

−18.5

TEM

W 76-71

+8.5

HAMP

W 63-52

−1.5

DAV

L 49-59

−11.5

TULN

L 90-93

−5.5

HARV

W 73-60

+5.5

LSU

L 69-78

−1.5

NHVN

W 67-63

−13.5

MASS

L 74-76

−3.5

FDU

W 72-61

−5.5

LEM

W 72-64

−4.5

L 53-65

−5.5

NCSU

L 71-79

+3.5

LOU

L 62-75

+8.5

CLEM

L 50-74

−8.5

SYR

W 81-73

+13.5

PITT

W 65-62

+5.5

L 64-68

+3.5

UVA

L 66-73

+6.5

DUKE

L 49-67

+8.5

MIA

L 68-74

+2.5

STAN

L 64-70

−2.5

CAL

L 75-86

−7.5

FSU

L 72-80

+3.5

SMU

L 70-94

−8.5

WAKE

W 68-67

+4.5

MIA

L 54-76

−6.5

L 63-72

+2.5

W 77-69

+9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAU

L 78-83

+12.5

CIT

W 76-47

−21.5

CCSU

L 59-60

−17.5

TEM

W 76-71

+4.5

HAMP

W 63-52

−20.5

DAV

L 49-59

−32.5

TULN

L 90-93

+42.5

HARV

W 73-60

−5.5

LSU

L 69-78

−2.5

NHVN

W 67-63

+3.5

MASS

L 74-76

+6.5

FDU

W 72-61

−8.5

LEM

W 72-64

−10.5

L 53-65

−27.5

NCSU

L 71-79

+8.5

LOU

L 62-75

−13.5

CLEM

L 50-74

−12.5

SYR

W 81-73

+12.5

PITT

W 65-62

−10.5

L 64-68

−5.5

UVA

L 66-73

−2.5

DUKE

L 49-67

−25.5

MIA

L 68-74

+0.5

STAN

L 64-70

−5.5

CAL

L 75-86

+16.5

FSU

L 72-80

+3.5

SMU

L 70-94

+13.5

WAKE

W 68-67

−10.5

MIA

L 54-76

−13.5

L 63-72

−7.5

W 77-69

+4.5

over 12under 19avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Boston College has the better starters

Position by position: MD Eastern 0, Boston College 1, even 4

MD EasternBetterBoston College

G I. Hall NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G E. Shelton TR15.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65

F L. Beckwith1.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 1

BCBig

G A. Zeigler TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 3.3 ast Score 60

F L. Gibson-Savadel TR2.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Williams TR21.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96

F E. Berhanu NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F B. Benjamin TR14.2 pts · 10.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89

F G. Tokody NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F A. Bukumirovic TR13.7 pts · 7.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86

MD EasternBetterBoston College

UMES offense364th of 366 · -15.3

BCBig

BC defense83rd of 366 · +0.1

UMES defense350th of 366 · -9.7

BCBig

BC offense96th of 366 · -0.7

BackcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Backcourt+4.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt-3.5 · 4 players

BCBig

Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-4.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUMES betterBC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

MD Eastern

Guards

I. HallNewE. JohnsonNewI. GriffinNewS. MooreNewB. GardnerNewV. EzehNew

Forwards

L. Beckwith17 minL. Gibson-Savadel7 min · TRE. BerhanuNewG. TokodyNewA. ColeNewD. Hall-JohnsonNew

Centers

E. OgohNew

Boston College

Guards

E. Shelton37 min · TRA. Zeigler33 min · TRM. Williams32 min · TRJ. Frankel21 min · TRJ. O'Toole3 min · TRJ. Furphy3 min · TR

Forwards

B. Benjamin31 min · TRA. Bukumirovic30 min · TRC. Duggan28 min · TRL. Hunger19 min · TRA. Tounkara18 min · TRJ. BaileyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UMES62.4 #360

BC67.4 #326

Points per possession

UMES0.94 #358

BC1.00 #323

Pace (possessions)

UMES65.8 #321

BC67.5 #257

Shooting

Effective FG%

UMES47.8 #319

BC47.0 #338

3-point %

UMES29.0 #354

BC29.4 #348

3-point attempt rate

UMES33.5 #309

BC42.4 #130

Free throw rate

UMES29.4 #321

BC32.4 #251

Possessions

Turnover rate

UMES23.7 #365

BC15.4 #102

Offensive rebound rate

UMES32.4 #112

BC28.3 #254

Assists per game

UMES13.0 #213

BC11.3 #323

Defense

Points allowed

UMES71.5 #91

BC70.7 #70

Points allowed per possession

UMES1.09 #207

BC1.04 #81

Opponent effective FG%

UMES50.8 #142

BC48.9 #62

Opponent 3-point %

UMES33.5 #156

BC31.9 #59

Turnovers forced

UMES18.0 #95

BC14.8 #303

Defensive rebound rate

UMES66.4 #311

BC71.4 #87

Steals per game

UMES5.7 #274

BC4.8 #341

Blocks per game

UMES2.5 #302

BC4.1 #62

UMES		BC
Scoring
62.4 #360	Points per game	67.4 #326
0.94 #358	Points per possession	1.00 #323
65.8 #321	Pace (possessions)	67.5 #257
Shooting
47.8 #319	Effective FG%	47.0 #338
29.0 #354	3-point %	29.4 #348
33.5 #309	3-point attempt rate	42.4 #130
29.4 #321	Free throw rate	32.4 #251
Possessions
23.7 #365	Turnover rate	15.4 #102
32.4 #112	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #254
13.0 #213	Assists per game	11.3 #323
Defense
71.5 #91	Points allowed	70.7 #70
1.09 #207	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #81
50.8 #142	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #62
33.5 #156	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #59
18.0 #95	Turnovers forced	14.8 #303
66.4 #311	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #87
5.7 #274	Steals per game	4.8 #341
2.5 #302	Blocks per game	4.1 #62

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

MD Eastern

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 5-10 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC Central76–83
Lvs Delaware St56–57
Lvs NC Central73–77
Wvs SC State69–57
L@ Coppin St65–71

A week or more of rest.

Boston College

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Notre Dame77–69
L@ Virginia Tech63–72
L@ Miami54–76
Wvs Wake Forest68–67
L@ SMU70–94

A week or more of rest.

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Boston College Eagles

What could decide it: BC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

MD Eastern

Boston College

Boston College has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

MD Eastern

Boston College