Xavier Musketeers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 9:00 PM ETColonial Hall · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Xavier and Mississippi St
XAV	This season	MSST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects XAV 82–81 · win probability XAV 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 163.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: XAV has more of the edges

XAV 3, MSST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

XAVBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: XAV 14.0%, MSST 16.0%. Forced: XAV 15.5%, MSST 12.8%

XAVSmall

Three-pointers

XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%; MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 40.6% and 40.1% of their shots

MSSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1; MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9

XAVSmall

XAV offense vs MSST defense

Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings

MSSTSmall

MSST offense vs XAV defense

Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: XAV 28.1, MSST 30.6. Allowed: XAV 32.6, MSST 32.3

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: XAV 26.5%, MSST 29.8%. Defensive: XAV 70.5%, MSST 69.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: XAV 14%, MSST 23%. Transfers in: XAV 7, MSST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

XAV has played the 34th-hardest schedule, MSST the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: XAV plays 71.8 a game (44th fastest), MSST 72.3 (29th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	XAV -1.4	—
Total	—	163.1	—
Projected score	—	XAV 82.2 · MSST 80.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	XAV -0.9	—
1H total	76.2	—
1H projected score	XAV 38.6 · MSST 37.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
XAV WLLWL	16-17	48%	3-1	—
MSST LLLLL	10-22	31%	1-5	—

Venue/role: XAV neutral site; MSST neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
XAV OOOOO	24-9	73%	15-18
MSST UUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
XAV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
MSST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Xavier

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs CLE	W72–68LU
Nov 20	vs IOWA	L62–81LU
Nov 25	vs TA&M	W73–72WO

Mississippi St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ UCF	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ TLSA	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs WAKE	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Xavier

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

24-9

73% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W W L L W L W W W W W L W L L L W W L L L W L L W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L L L W W W W L W L L W L L W W W W W L L L W W W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

24-973%

U U U U O U O O O O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O O O U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsUGA	L 77-78	+10.5	W +9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsWVU	W 78-68	+5.5	W +15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsAMCC	W 88-67	-13.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155
Dec 1	vsSFPA	W 96-74	-27.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 5	vsCIN	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 12	vsMOST	W 75-57	-18.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 132
Dec 17	vsCREI	L 57-98	-2.5	L −43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	@GTWN	W 80-77	+4.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Dec 31	vsCONN	L 67-90	+11.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 157
Jan 3	@DEP	L 77-86	+2.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 163
Jan 7	@MARQ	L 65-66	+5.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsPROV	W 97-84	+1.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 181
Jan 14	vsBTLR	W 89-75	+1.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 164
Jan 21	@CREI	L 93-94	+8.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 24	vsSJU	L 83-88	+8.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 171
Jan 28	@HALL	L 68-86	+5.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsDEP	W 68-66	-4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 3	@CONN	L 60-92	+16.5	L −15.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 9	@SJU	L 82-87	+16.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsMARQ	W 96-88	-1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 184
Feb 17	vsVILL	L 89-92	+4.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 21	@BTLR	L 75-80	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 155
Feb 25	@PROV	L 84-94	+5.5	L −4.5	170.5	O 178
Feb 28	vsGTWN	W 91-84	-4.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 3	vsHALL	L 68-77	+1.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 145
Mar 7	@VILL	L 78-91	+11.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsMARQ	W 89-87	+4.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 176
Mar 12	vsCONN	L 68-93	+17.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

UGA

L 77-78

+9.5

WVU

W 78-68

+15.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+7.5

SFPA

W 96-74

−5.5

CIN

W 79-74

+6.5

MOST

W 75-57

−0.5

CREI

L 57-98

−43.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

−11.5

DEP

L 77-86

−6.5

MARQ

L 65-66

+4.5

PROV

W 97-84

+14.5

BTLR

W 89-75

+15.5

CREI

L 93-94

+7.5

SJU

L 83-88

+3.5

HALL

L 68-86

−12.5

DEP

W 68-66

−2.5

CONN

L 60-92

−15.5

SJU

L 82-87

+11.5

MARQ

W 96-88

+6.5

VILL

L 89-92

+1.5

BTLR

L 75-80

−0.5

PROV

L 84-94

−4.5

GTWN

W 91-84

+2.5

HALL

L 68-77

−7.5

VILL

L 78-91

−1.5

MARQ

W 89-87

+6.5

CONN

L 68-93

−7.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

UGA

L 77-78

−10.5

WVU

W 78-68

+5.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+8.5

SFPA

W 96-74

+17.5

CIN

W 79-74

+5.5

MOST

W 75-57

−19.5

CREI

L 57-98

+3.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

+12.5

DEP

L 77-86

+13.5

MARQ

L 65-66

−26.5

PROV

W 97-84

+15.5

BTLR

W 89-75

+2.5

CREI

L 93-94

+31.5

SJU

L 83-88

+11.5

HALL

L 68-86

+8.5

DEP

W 68-66

−16.5

CONN

L 60-92

+4.5

SJU

L 82-87

+9.5

MARQ

W 96-88

+26.5

VILL

L 89-92

+28.5

BTLR

L 75-80

−4.5

PROV

L 84-94

+7.5

GTWN

W 91-84

+19.5

HALL

L 68-77

+0.5

VILL

L 78-91

+15.5

MARQ

W 89-87

+18.5

CONN

L 68-93

+10.5

over 24under 9avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mississippi St

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L L L L L L W L W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O O U U U U O U U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 24	vsNOLA	W 81-78	-23.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 28	vsSMU	L 81-87	-1.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 3	@GT	W 85-73	-1.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 7	vsSF	L 62-65	-4.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsUTAH	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 16	vsLIU	W 87-83	-16.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsMEM	W 71-66	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 29	vsALST	W 94-56	-17.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@TEX	W 101-98	+9.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 199
Jan 7	vsOU	W 72-53	-1.5	W +17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@UK	L 68-92	+10.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsALA	L 82-97	+4.5	L −10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	vsMISS	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 21	@TA&M	L 68-88	+8.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	vsVAN	L 56-88	+7.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 28	@LSU	W 80-66	+7.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@MIZ	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsARK	L 68-88	+5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 156
Feb 11	vsTENN	L 64-73	+8.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@MISS	W 90-78	+3.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	vsAUB	W 91-85	+5.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	@SC	L 89-97	-1.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 25	@ALA	L 75-100	+12.5	L −12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	vsMIZ	L 64-88	+1.5	L −22.5	154.5	U 152
Mar 3	@FLA	L 74-108	+20.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	vsUGA	L 96-102	+5.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 198
Mar 11	vsAUB	L 61-79	+8.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

UNM

L 78-80

−8.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−20.5

SMU

L 81-87

−7.5

W 85-73

+10.5

L 62-65

−7.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+6.5

LIU

W 87-83

−12.5

MEM

W 71-66

+1.5

ALST

W 94-56

+20.5

TEX

W 101-98

+12.5

W 72-53

+17.5

L 68-92

−13.5

ALA

L 82-97

−10.5

MISS

L 67-68

−4.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−11.5

VAN

L 56-88

−24.5

LSU

W 80-66

+21.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+1.5

ARK

L 68-88

−14.5

TENN

L 64-73

−0.5

MISS

W 90-78

+15.5

AUB

W 91-85

+11.5

L 89-97

−9.5

ALA

L 75-100

−12.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−22.5

FLA

L 74-108

−13.5

UGA

L 96-102

−0.5

AUB

L 61-79

−9.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

UNM

L 78-80

+6.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−1.5

SMU

L 81-87

+5.5

W 85-73

+7.5

L 62-65

−23.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+2.5

LIU

W 87-83

+17.5

MEM

W 71-66

−16.5

ALST

W 94-56

−4.5

TEX

W 101-98

+41.5

W 72-53

−33.5

L 68-92

+7.5

ALA

L 82-97

+7.5

MISS

L 67-68

−12.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−7.5

VAN

L 56-88

−15.5

LSU

W 80-66

−8.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+16.5

ARK

L 68-88

−7.5

TENN

L 64-73

−10.5

MISS

W 90-78

+21.5

AUB

W 91-85

+20.5

L 89-97

+34.5

ALA

L 75-100

−1.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−2.5

FLA

L 74-108

+20.5

UGA

L 96-102

+30.5

AUB

L 61-79

−20.5

over 16under 16avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Xavier 1, Mississippi St 1, even 3

XavierBetterMississippi St

G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

Even

G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99

G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82

Even

G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86

F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66

MSSTSmall

G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75

XAVBig

F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74

Even

C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71

XavierBetterMississippi St

XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0

XAVSmall

MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1

XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2

MSSTSmall

MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players

MSSTBig

Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players

XAVSmall

Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

XAVBig

Bench-2.0 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestXAV betterMSST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Xavier

Guards

C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew

Forwards

N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew

Centers

K. WestphalNew

Mississippi St

Guards

J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew

Forwards

K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew

Centers

N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

XAV78.4 #91

MSST77.6 #103

Points per possession

XAV1.09 #149

MSST1.07 #205

Pace (possessions)

XAV71.8 #44

MSST72.3 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

XAV51.8 #155

MSST51.5 #172

3-point %

XAV36.5 #39

MSST32.4 #262

3-point attempt rate

XAV40.6 #156

MSST40.1 #169

Free throw rate

XAV28.1 #341

MSST30.6 #288

Possessions

Turnover rate

XAV14.0 #21

MSST16.0 #143

Offensive rebound rate

XAV26.5 #311

MSST29.8 #210

Assists per game

XAV17.4 #15

MSST12.8 #231

Defense

Points allowed

XAV80.6 #329

MSST81.8 #338

Points allowed per possession

XAV1.12 #276

MSST1.13 #299

Opponent effective FG%

XAV54.1 #302

MSST50.9 #154

Opponent 3-point %

XAV34.8 #237

MSST33.9 #179

Turnovers forced

XAV15.5 #253

MSST12.8 #358

Defensive rebound rate

XAV70.5 #136

MSST69.3 #190

Steals per game

XAV6.5 #181

MSST5.8 #260

Blocks per game

XAV4.0 #77

MSST4.4 #44

XAV		MSST
Scoring
78.4 #91	Points per game	77.6 #103
1.09 #149	Points per possession	1.07 #205
71.8 #44	Pace (possessions)	72.3 #29
Shooting
51.8 #155	Effective FG%	51.5 #172
36.5 #39	3-point %	32.4 #262
40.6 #156	3-point attempt rate	40.1 #169
28.1 #341	Free throw rate	30.6 #288
Possessions
14.0 #21	Turnover rate	16.0 #143
26.5 #311	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #210
17.4 #15	Assists per game	12.8 #231
Defense
80.6 #329	Points allowed	81.8 #338
1.12 #276	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #299
54.1 #302	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #154
34.8 #237	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #179
15.5 #253	Turnovers forced	12.8 #358
70.5 #136	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #190
6.5 #181	Steals per game	5.8 #260
4.0 #77	Blocks per game	4.4 #44

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn68–93
Wvs Marquette89–87
L@ Villanova78–91
Lvs Seton Hall68–77
Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn61–79
Lvs Georgia96–102
L@ Florida74–108
Lvs Missouri64–88
L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.

Xavier Musketeers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

What could decide it: XAV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Xavier

Mississippi St

The starting fives are even

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Xavier

Mississippi St