1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. BALL @ SMU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Ball State Cardinals at SMU Mustangs

Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU
#181BALLBall State
@
#55SMUSMU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BALLThis seasonSMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMU 84–65 · win probability SMU 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

BALL 0, SMU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BALL 47.0 and allows 52.7; SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6
SMUBig
Three-pointers
BALL hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 39.4% and 35.9% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
BALL has played the 236th-hardest schedule, SMU the 70th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SMUBig
BALL offense vs SMU defense
Offense 221st of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: BALL plays 65.9 a game (317th fastest), SMU 71.1 (68th). Faster games mean more points
SMUBig
SMU offense vs BALL defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 159th, on the model’s ratings
SMUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BALL 27.1%, SMU 35.4%. Defensive: BALL 69.0%, SMU 68.4%
SMUSmall
Home court
SMU at home. This season: SMU 0-0 at home, BALL 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BALL 16.2%, SMU 15.8%. Forced: BALL 18.7%, SMU 16.8%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BALL 31.6, SMU 30.4. Allowed: BALL 32.1, SMU 32.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BALL 25%, SMU 20%. Transfers in: BALL 9, SMU 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SMU -19.1—
Total—148.6—
Projected score—BALL 64.7 · SMU 83.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSMU -11.2—
1H total69.5—
1H projected scoreBALL 29.1 · SMU 40.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SMU has the better starters

Position by position: Ball State 1, SMU 4, even 0
Ball StateBetterSMU
G Z. Collins TR11.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 73
SMUSmall
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
G S. Blake TR10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 53
SMUBig
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
G J. Guy-King TR10 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.7 ast Score 50
SMUSmall
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
G K. Parker TR10.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
BALLSmall
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
F M. Jones4.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 9
SMUBig
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
Ball StateBetterSMU
BALL offense221st of 366 · -6.7
SMUBig
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
BALL defense159th of 366 · -3.5
SMUSmall
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players
SMUBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 1 player
SMUBig
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
SMUSmall
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBALL betterSMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Ball State
Guards
Z. Collins31 min · TRS. Blake29 min · TRJ. Guy-King23 min · TRK. Parker21 min · TRJ. Hart19 minT. Lewis18 min · TR
Forwards
M. Jones31 minB. Durodola19 min · TRK. WrightNewK. McGrewNew
Centers
J. Smith9 min · TR
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BALLSMU
Scoring
66.1 #345Points per game84.1 #19
1.00 #325Points per possession1.19 #26
65.9 #317Pace (possessions)71.1 #68
Shooting
47.0 #336Effective FG%55.6 #27
31.4 #3123-point %37.1 #27
39.4 #1863-point attempt rate35.9 #252
31.6 #263Free throw rate30.4 #301
Possessions
16.2 #151Turnover rate15.8 #119
27.1 #290Offensive rebound rate35.4 #37
12.4 #259Assists per game16.9 #27
Defense
71.4 #88Points allowed77.9 #265
1.09 #184Points allowed per possession1.09 #199
52.7 #253Opponent effective FG%51.6 #189
34.8 #239Opponent 3-point %34.1 #188
18.7 #60Turnovers forced16.8 #171
69.0 #204Defensive rebound rate68.4 #237
7.5 #88Steals per game7.0 #129
2.7 #286Blocks per game3.6 #132
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ball State

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs C Michigan85–69
  • W@ W Michigan74–71
  • W@ N Illinois79–43
  • Wvs UMass74–73
  • Lvs Akron65–78

A week or more of rest.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.