1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. ORU @ SMU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles at SMU Mustangs

Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU
#305ORUOral Roberts
@
#55SMUSMU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ORUThis seasonSMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMU 89–64 · win probability SMU 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 153.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

ORU 1, SMU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMUBig
SMU offense vs ORU defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 326th, on the model’s ratings
SMUBig
ORU offense vs SMU defense
Offense 279th of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
SMUBig
Three-pointers
ORU hits 32.0% and allows 37.4%; SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 45.6% and 35.9% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
ORU has played the 246th-hardest schedule, SMU the 70th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SMUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ORU 49.6 and allows 53.6; SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6
SMUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ORU 18.4%, SMU 15.8%. Forced: ORU 14.7%, SMU 16.8%
SMUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ORU 28.4%, SMU 35.4%. Defensive: ORU 68.2%, SMU 68.4%
ORUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ORU 54%, SMU 20%. Transfers in: ORU 2, SMU 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SMUSmall
Home court
SMU at home. This season: SMU 0-0 at home, ORU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ORU 34.8, SMU 30.4. Allowed: ORU 39.1, SMU 32.1
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: ORU plays 69.7 a game (134th fastest), SMU 71.1 (68th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SMU -25.2—
Total—153.0—
Projected score—ORU 63.9 · SMU 89.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSMU -14.9—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreORU 28.3 · SMU 43.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SMU has the better starters

Position by position: Oral Roberts 0, SMU 4, even 1
Oral RobertsBetterSMU
G C. Dow12.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 50
SMUBig
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
G C. Furnish3.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 10
SMUBig
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
G C. Martin2.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 8
SMUBig
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
G M. Kilups3.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9
SMUBig
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
F L. Gray7.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 57
Even
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
Oral RobertsBetterSMU
ORU offense279th of 366 · -8.5
SMUBig
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
ORU defense326th of 366 · -8.4
SMUBig
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
Backcourt-7.9 · 4 players
SMUBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt0.0 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Bench-1.5 · 2 players
SMUSmall
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestORU betterSMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oral Roberts
Guards
C. Dow33 minC. Furnish21 minC. Martin20 minM. Kilups18 minC. Haffner13 min · TRA. Robinson9 min · TR
Forwards
L. Gray17 minT. ZorbasNewM. PavlovicNewM. GavazovNewA. BlancoNew
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ORUSMU
Scoring
71.8 #250Points per game84.1 #19
1.03 #291Points per possession1.19 #26
69.7 #134Pace (possessions)71.1 #68
Shooting
49.6 #256Effective FG%55.6 #27
32.0 #2823-point %37.1 #27
45.6 #563-point attempt rate35.9 #252
34.8 #187Free throw rate30.4 #301
Possessions
18.4 #293Turnover rate15.8 #119
28.4 #249Offensive rebound rate35.4 #37
11.5 #312Assists per game16.9 #27
Defense
79.7 #312Points allowed77.9 #265
1.15 #319Points allowed per possession1.09 #199
53.6 #289Opponent effective FG%51.6 #189
37.4 #348Opponent 3-point %34.1 #188
14.7 #310Turnovers forced16.8 #171
68.2 #247Defensive rebound rate68.4 #237
5.7 #268Steals per game7.0 #129
3.4 #154Blocks per game3.6 #132
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oral Roberts

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 5-13 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Dakota St65–76
  • Wvs Kansas City84–62
  • W@ Kansas City94–70
  • Wvs Denver102–80
  • Wvs South Dakota67–62

A week or more of rest.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.