1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. FAIR @ WIS
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Fairfield Stags at Wisconsin Badgers

Kohl Center · at Wisconsin
#239FAIRFairfield
@
#41WISWisconsin
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FAIRThis seasonWIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIS 87–62 · win probability WIS 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIS has more of the edges

FAIR 1, WIS 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
FAIR has played the 359th-hardest schedule, WIS the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WISBig
FAIR offense vs WIS defense
Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 40th, on the model’s ratings
WISBig
WIS offense vs FAIR defense
Offense 44th of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings
WISBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0; WIS 54.5 and allows 51.4
WISSmall
Three-pointers
FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%; WIS hits 36.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 35.4% and 52.1% of their shots
FAIRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FAIR 35.8%, WIS 29.1%. Defensive: FAIR 70.9%, WIS 71.8%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: FAIR plays 67.3 a game (263rd fastest), WIS 70.0 (119th). Faster games mean more points
WISSmall
Home court
WIS at home. This season: WIS 0-0 at home, FAIR 0-0 away
WISSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: FAIR 27.7, WIS 31.5. Allowed: FAIR 30.4, WIS 29.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FAIR 15.4%, WIS 12.8%. Forced: FAIR 16.8%, WIS 14.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FAIR 53%, WIS 54%. Transfers in: FAIR 2, WIS 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WIS -25.1—
Total—149.6—
Projected score—FAIR 62.2 · WIS 87.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWIS -14.8—
1H total70.0—
1H projected scoreFAIR 27.6 · WIS 42.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Wisconsin has the better starters

Position by position: Fairfield 0, Wisconsin 3, even 2
FairfieldBetterWisconsin
G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71
Even
G E. Elmer TR12.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19
WISBig
G T. Autry TR10.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11
WISBig
G B. Carrington8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4
WISBig
F N. Winter13.1 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
Even
F A. Rapp9.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
FairfieldBetterWisconsin
FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7
WISBig
WIS defense40th of 366 · +2.9
FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8
WISBig
WIS offense44th of 366 · +4.5
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
WISBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
WISBig
Frontcourt+6.7 · 2 players
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Even
Bench-2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestFAIR betterWIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Fairfield
Guards
D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min
Forwards
Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew
Wisconsin
Guards
E. Elmer31 min · TRT. Autry29 min · TRB. Carrington18 minJ. Janicki17 minH. Jones7 minZ. Kinziger6 min
Forwards
N. Winter31 minA. Rapp23 minV. Onuetu18 min · TRW. Garlock7 minI. RiddleNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FAIRWIS
Scoring
72.9 #226Points per game83.0 #28
1.09 #166Points per possession1.18 #27
67.3 #263Pace (possessions)70.0 #119
Shooting
48.8 #294Effective FG%54.5 #52
33.2 #2163-point %36.2 #50
35.4 #2623-point attempt rate52.1 #6
27.7 #346Free throw rate31.5 #267
Possessions
15.4 #96Turnover rate12.8 #4
35.8 #29Offensive rebound rate29.1 #232
12.1 #277Assists per game16.0 #48
Defense
71.9 #104Points allowed76.1 #221
1.06 #118Points allowed per possession1.09 #193
51.0 #159Opponent effective FG%51.4 #178
34.3 #200Opponent 3-point %33.5 #152
16.8 #169Turnovers forced14.3 #327
70.9 #116Defensive rebound rate71.8 #74
6.5 #183Steals per game5.6 #287
3.5 #145Blocks per game3.1 #198
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena61–76
  • Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
  • Wvs Manhattan71–60
  • Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
  • Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.

Wisconsin

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point82–83
  • Lvs Michigan65–68
  • Wvs Illinois91–88
  • Wvs Washington85–82
  • W@ Purdue97–93

A week or more of rest.