1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. YALE @ BAY
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Yale Bulldogs at Baylor Bears

Foster Pavilion · at Baylor
#126YALEYale
@
#29BAYBaylor
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
YALEThis seasonBAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BAY 86–69 · win probability BAY 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

YALE 3, BAY 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
YALE has played the 141st-hardest schedule, BAY the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BAYSmall
BAY offense vs YALE defense
Offense 29th of 366 against a defense 136th, on the model’s ratings
YALESmall
Three-pointers
YALE hits 39.4% and allows 35.0%; BAY hits 33.9% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 36.1% and 39.6% of their shots
BAYSmall
YALE offense vs BAY defense
Offense 125th of 366 against a defense 45th, on the model’s ratings
YALESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: YALE 14.0%, BAY 16.2%. Forced: YALE 16.2%, BAY 15.9%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: YALE plays 66.4 a game (301st fastest), BAY 69.3 (161st). Faster games mean more points
YALESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: YALE 55.6 and allows 51.6; BAY 53.4 and allows 52.4
BAYSmall
Home court
BAY at home. This season: BAY 0-0 at home, YALE 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: YALE 35.1, BAY 34.1. Allowed: YALE 26.8, BAY 30.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: YALE 42%, BAY 26%. Transfers in: YALE 0, BAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: YALE 34.2%, BAY 36.9%. Defensive: YALE 70.3%, BAY 68.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BAY -17.1—
Total—154.5—
Projected score—YALE 68.7 · BAY 85.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBAY -10.1—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreYALE 31.1 · BAY 41.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Baylor has the better starters

Position by position: Yale 0, Baylor 1, even 4
YaleBetterBaylor
G T. Mullin11.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63
Even
G B. Decker TR16.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1 ast Score 76
G J. Brathwaite6.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 35
BAYBig
G K. Mingo TR13.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.3 ast Score 92
G C. Wallace1.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
G I. Williams10.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 89
F R. Fox9.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 76
Even
F I. Celiscar TR13.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 88
F J. Sullivan1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Chatman TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71
YaleBetterBaylor
YALE offense125th of 366 · -3.3
BAYSmall
BAY defense45th of 366 · +2.4
YALE defense136th of 366 · -2.8
BAYSmall
BAY offense29th of 366 · +6.5
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
BAYBig
Backcourt+6.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
BAYBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
BAYSmall
Bench+1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestYALE betterBAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Yale
Guards
T. Mullin28 minJ. Brathwaite19 minC. Wallace4 minJ. Basima3 minA. Loving3 minJ. Tsai2 min
Forwards
R. Fox18 minJ. Sullivan5 minD. Ogunyemi3 minC. MayNewT. WinklerNewC. BolteNew
Centers
J. OwareNew
Baylor
Guards
B. Decker34 min · TRK. Mingo32 min · TRI. Williams25 minD. Perry2 minJ. Goodis1 minA. IguodalaNew
Forwards
I. Celiscar32 min · TRE. Chatman29 min · TRM. PerezNewE. WilliamsNew
Centers
C. Powell24 minJ. Bodo BodoNewM. SoyoyeNewT. MakabuNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
YALEBAY
Scoring
80.1 #64Points per game80.4 #59
1.21 #10Points per possession1.16 #51
66.4 #301Pace (possessions)69.3 #161
Shooting
55.6 #26Effective FG%53.4 #84
39.4 #33-point %33.9 #179
36.1 #2473-point attempt rate39.6 #181
35.1 #172Free throw rate34.1 #202
Possessions
14.0 #22Turnover rate16.2 #153
34.2 #62Offensive rebound rate36.9 #18
15.8 #53Assists per game14.8 #96
Defense
71.8 #102Points allowed76.9 #238
1.08 #166Points allowed per possession1.11 #248
51.6 #192Opponent effective FG%52.4 #237
35.0 #250Opponent 3-point %34.8 #240
16.2 #207Turnovers forced15.9 #226
70.3 #147Defensive rebound rate68.7 #219
5.3 #314Steals per game6.3 #198
3.2 #193Blocks per game3.9 #85
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Yale

22-7 in 2025-26 overall · 12-4 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington67–68
  • Lvs Penn84–88
  • Wvs Cornell88–76
  • Wvs Princeton78–53
  • W@ Columbia60–54

A week or more of rest.

Baylor

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma69–82
  • Wvs Minnesota67–48
  • Lvs Arizona St79–83
  • Wvs Utah101–75
  • L@ Houston64–77

A week or more of rest.