1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. BAY vs TEX
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

Baylor Bears vs Texas Longhorns

Frost Bank Center · Neutral site
#29BAYBaylor
vs
#11TEXTexas AP #7
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BAYThis seasonTEX
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TEX 84–75 · win probability TEX 78%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges

BAY 0, TEX 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TEXSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BAY 36.9%, TEX 35.4%. Defensive: BAY 68.7%, TEX 73.1%
TEXSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BAY 53.4 and allows 52.4; TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8
Even
Three-pointers
BAY hits 33.9% and allows 34.8%; TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 39.6% and 35.8% of their shots
Even
TEX offense vs BAY defense
Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 45th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BAY 16.2%, TEX 15.0%. Forced: BAY 15.9%, TEX 13.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BAY 26%, TEX 14%. Transfers in: BAY 4, TEX 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BAY 34.1, TEX 44.2. Allowed: BAY 30.1, TEX 39.6
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BAY plays 69.3 a game (161st fastest), TEX 68.7 (199th). Faster games mean more points
Even
BAY offense vs TEX defense
Offense 29th of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BAY has played the 19th-hardest schedule, TEX the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TEX -8.7—
Total—159.3—
Projected score—BAY 75.3 · TEX 84

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTEX -5.0—
1H total74.4—
1H projected scoreBAY 34.7 · TEX 39.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Baylor 0, Texas 2, even 3
BaylorBetterTexas
G B. Decker TR16.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1 ast Score 76
TEXSmall
G I. Johnson TR16.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 3 ast Score 98
G K. Mingo TR13.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.3 ast Score 92
Even
G E. Freeman TR9.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
G I. Williams10.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 89
Even
G M. Lewis TR14 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 86
F I. Celiscar TR13.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 88
Even
F D. Punch TR14.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 96
F E. Chatman TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71
TEXSmall
C M. Vokietaitis15.5 pts · 7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 95
BaylorBetterTexas
BAY offense29th of 366 · +6.5
Even
TEX defense17th of 366 · +6.2
BAY defense45th of 366 · +2.4
Even
TEX offense7th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt+6.4 · 3 players
TEXSmall
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
TEXBig
Frontcourt+9.8 · 2 players
Bench+1.5 · 3 players
Even
Bench+0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestBAY betterTEX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Baylor
Guards
B. Decker34 min · TRK. Mingo32 min · TRI. Williams25 minD. Perry2 minJ. Goodis1 minA. IguodalaNew
Forwards
I. Celiscar32 min · TRE. Chatman29 min · TRM. PerezNewE. WilliamsNew
Centers
C. Powell24 minJ. Bodo BodoNewM. SoyoyeNewT. MakabuNew
Texas
Guards
I. Johnson31 min · TRE. Freeman27 min · TRM. Lewis27 min · TRA. Evans14 min · TRA. McDermott3 minB. OgdenNew
Forwards
D. Punch30 min · TRJ. ClarkNewM. SpearsNewC. ElkinsNew
Centers
M. Vokietaitis26 minL. ObiorahNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BAYTEX
Scoring
80.4 #59Points per game81.7 #34
1.16 #51Points per possession1.19 #22
69.3 #161Pace (possessions)68.7 #199
Shooting
53.4 #84Effective FG%54.1 #65
33.9 #1793-point %35.1 #107
39.6 #1813-point attempt rate35.8 #254
34.1 #202Free throw rate44.2 #7
Possessions
16.2 #153Turnover rate15.0 #68
36.9 #18Offensive rebound rate35.4 #35
14.8 #96Assists per game12.1 #278
Defense
76.9 #238Points allowed76.1 #220
1.11 #248Points allowed per possession1.11 #235
52.4 #237Opponent effective FG%50.8 #144
34.8 #240Opponent 3-point %34.7 #230
15.9 #226Turnovers forced13.0 #356
68.7 #219Defensive rebound rate73.1 #35
6.3 #198Steals per game5.5 #298
3.9 #85Blocks per game2.9 #239
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Baylor

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma69–82
  • Wvs Minnesota67–48
  • Lvs Arizona St79–83
  • Wvs Utah101–75
  • L@ Houston64–77

A week or more of rest.

Texas

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue77–79
  • Wvs Gonzaga74–68
  • Wvs BYU79–71
  • Wvs NC State68–66
  • Lvs Ole Miss66–76

A week or more of rest.