1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. JKST @ BAY
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Jackson State Tigers at Baylor Bears

Foster Pavilion · at Baylor
#280JKSTJackson St
@
#29BAYBaylor
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
JKSTThis seasonBAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BAY 93–64 · win probability BAY 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 157.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BAY has more of the edges

JKST 1, BAY 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BAYBig
BAY offense vs JKST defense
Offense 29th of 366 against a defense 325th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
JKST has played the 239th-hardest schedule, BAY the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BAYBig
JKST offense vs BAY defense
Offense 229th of 366 against a defense 45th, on the model’s ratings
BAYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: JKST 29.7%, BAY 36.9%. Defensive: JKST 62.8%, BAY 68.7%
BAYBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: JKST 45.7 and allows 53.0; BAY 53.4 and allows 52.4
JKSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: JKST 76%, BAY 26%. Transfers in: JKST 2, BAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
BAYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: JKST 37.4, BAY 34.1. Allowed: JKST 41.9, BAY 30.1
BAYSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: JKST 19.4%, BAY 16.2%. Forced: JKST 16.5%, BAY 15.9%
BAYSmall
Three-pointers
JKST hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; BAY hits 33.9% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 43.3% and 39.6% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: JKST plays 71.6 a game (50th fastest), BAY 69.3 (161st). Faster games mean more points
BAYSmall
Home court
BAY at home. This season: BAY 0-0 at home, JKST 0-0 away
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BAY -29.0—
Total—157.1—
Projected score—JKST 64.1 · BAY 93

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBAY -17.1—
1H total73.4—
1H projected scoreJKST 28.2 · BAY 45.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Baylor has the better starters

Position by position: Jackson St 1, Baylor 3, even 1
Jackson StBetterBaylor
G D. Ruffin23.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 98
JKSTSmall
G B. Decker TR16.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1 ast Score 76
G D. McMillian11.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 37
BAYBig
G K. Mingo TR13.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.3 ast Score 92
G M. Williams5.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G I. Williams10.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 89
G T. Hoover5.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 23
BAYBig
F I. Celiscar TR13.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 88
G D. Williams2.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5
BAYBig
F E. Chatman TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71
Jackson StBetterBaylor
JKST offense229th of 366 · -7.0
BAYBig
BAY defense45th of 366 · +2.4
JKST defense325th of 366 · -8.4
BAYBig
BAY offense29th of 366 · +6.5
Backcourt-2.6 · 5 players
BAYBig
Backcourt+6.4 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Bench-5.7 · 5 players
BAYBig
Bench+1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestJKST betterBAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Jackson St
Guards
D. Ruffin34 minD. McMillian30 minM. Williams20 minT. Hoover20 minD. Williams17 minC. Brunt11 min · TR
Forwards
K. Butler10 minD. Kolev8 minN. WilliamsNewT. LawsonNew
Centers
E. Wilson11 minJ. Williams8 min · TR
Baylor
Guards
B. Decker34 min · TRK. Mingo32 min · TRI. Williams25 minD. Perry2 minJ. Goodis1 minA. IguodalaNew
Forwards
I. Celiscar32 min · TRE. Chatman29 min · TRM. PerezNewE. WilliamsNew
Centers
C. Powell24 minJ. Bodo BodoNewM. SoyoyeNewT. MakabuNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
JKSTBAY
Scoring
70.2 #281Points per game80.4 #59
0.98 #341Points per possession1.16 #51
71.6 #50Pace (possessions)69.3 #161
Shooting
45.7 #354Effective FG%53.4 #84
31.4 #3113-point %33.9 #179
43.3 #1053-point attempt rate39.6 #181
37.4 #117Free throw rate34.1 #202
Possessions
19.4 #337Turnover rate16.2 #153
29.7 #215Offensive rebound rate36.9 #18
10.4 #352Assists per game14.8 #96
Defense
83.8 #354Points allowed76.9 #238
1.17 #344Points allowed per possession1.11 #248
53.0 #267Opponent effective FG%52.4 #237
34.8 #236Opponent 3-point %34.8 #240
16.5 #189Turnovers forced15.9 #226
62.8 #359Defensive rebound rate68.7 #219
6.3 #205Steals per game6.3 #198
3.0 #226Blocks per game3.9 #85
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jackson St

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Florida A&M60–70
  • Wvs Grambling68–65
  • Wvs Miss Valley St85–77
  • Wvs AR-Pine Bluff81–78
  • L@ Texas Southern57–82

A week or more of rest.

Baylor

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma69–82
  • Wvs Minnesota67–48
  • Lvs Arizona St79–83
  • Wvs Utah101–75
  • L@ Houston64–77

A week or more of rest.