Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at UNC Asheville Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 6:30 PM ETKimmel Arena · at UNC Asheville

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tennessee Tech and UNC Asheville
TNTC	This season	UNCA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCA 74–71 · win probability UNCA 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCA has more of the edges

TNTC 0, UNCA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCABig

Three-pointers

TNTC hits 31.1% and allows 35.8%; UNCA hits 35.1% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 36.5% and 33.6% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

TNTC has played the 353rd-hardest schedule, UNCA the 214th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNCASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TNTC 19.1%, UNCA 17.4%. Forced: TNTC 15.0%, UNCA 15.5%

UNCASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TNTC 48.9 and allows 51.5; UNCA 51.0 and allows 51.3

UNCASmall

Home court

UNCA at home. This season: UNCA 0-0 at home, TNTC 0-0 away

UNCASmall

TNTC offense vs UNCA defense

Offense 276th of 366 against a defense 230th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TNTC 35.5, UNCA 40.0. Allowed: TNTC 31.3, UNCA 38.7

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TNTC 31.3%, UNCA 29.8%. Defensive: TNTC 69.3%, UNCA 68.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TNTC 18%, UNCA 30%. Transfers in: TNTC 6, UNCA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: TNTC plays 68.3 a game (214th fastest), UNCA 68.0 (230th). Faster games mean more points

Even

UNCA offense vs TNTC defense

Offense 294th of 366 against a defense 288th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNCA -2.6	—
Total	—	144.5	—
Projected score	—	TNTC 70.9 · UNCA 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCA -1.4	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	TNTC 33.1 · UNCA 34.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TNTC WWWLL	14-14	50%	9-8	—
UNCA LLLWW	15-14	52%	5-7	—

Venue/role: TNTC away; UNCA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TNTC OUUUO	14-14	50%	10-18
UNCA UOOOU	15-14	52%	12-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TNTC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UNCA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs PRES	W90–75WO
Nov 24	vs WGA	W87–59WU
Nov 28	@ EKU	No recent meeting

UNC Asheville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ SAM	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ FSU	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs GASO	L90–93WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TNTC 0–1 UNCAUNCA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TNTC 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2021-22	TNTC 55 vs UNCA 61	UNCA +2	UNCA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee Tech

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L W L L L W W L L L L W L L L L W W W L L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1450%

W W L W L L W W W L L L L W L L L W W W W L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

U U U O O O O U O O O U U U U O O U O O O U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WKU	L 70-82	+14.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 7	@CLT	L 65-70	+12.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 17	vsWGA	L 59-61	-4.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 120
Nov 19	@UPST	W 88-84	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 26	@UK	L 54-104	+37.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 158
Nov 29	@UGA	L 81-123	+34.5	L −7.5	160.5	O 204
Dec 3	@LIP	L 80-83	+10.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WGA	W 87-59	+1.5	W +29.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsSEMO	W 85-74	+2.5	W +13.5	155.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsUTM	L 62-86	+2.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 30	vsTNST	L 76-88	+1.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 164
Jan 1	@LR	L 58-77	+1.5	L −17.5	144.5	U 135
Jan 8	@EIU	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	@WIU	W 59-54	-3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 15	vsUSI	L 54-71	-5.5	L −22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	vsMORE	L 70-76	-1.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 146
Jan 22	@LIN	L 68-89	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	@SIUE	L 58-62	+7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 120
Jan 31	vsLR	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	141.5	O 164
Feb 2	@TNST	W 90-85	+7.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 175
Feb 5	vsWIU	W 97-72	-9.5	W +15.5	143.5	O 169
Feb 7	vsEIU	L 54-60	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 12	@MORE	L 66-73	+4.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 139
Feb 14	@USI	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	vsSIUE	W 62-52	+1.5	W +11.5	134.5	U 114
Feb 21	vsLIN	W 72-57	+1.5	W +16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	@UTM	L 49-64	+7.5	L −7.5	134.5	U 113
Feb 28	@SEMO	L 73-89	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

+2.5

CLT

L 65-70

+7.5

WGA

L 59-61

−6.5

UPST

W 88-84

+6.5

L 54-104

−12.5

UGA

L 81-123

−7.5

LIP

L 80-83

+7.5

WGA

W 87-59

+29.5

SEMO

W 85-74

+13.5

UTM

L 62-86

−21.5

TNST

L 76-88

−10.5

L 58-77

−17.5

EIU

L 61-71

−11.5

WIU

W 59-54

+1.5

USI

L 54-71

−22.5

L 70-76

−7.5

LIN

L 68-89

−12.5

SIUE

L 58-62

+3.5

W 87-77

+11.5

TNST

W 90-85

+12.5

WIU

W 97-72

+15.5

EIU

L 54-60

−10.5

L 66-73

−2.5

USI

W 82-74

+6.5

SIUE

W 62-52

+11.5

LIN

W 72-57

+16.5

UTM

L 49-64

−7.5

SEMO

L 73-89

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

−1.5

CLT

L 65-70

−11.5

WGA

L 59-61

−32.5

UPST

W 88-84

+21.5

L 54-104

+0.5

UGA

L 81-123

+43.5

LIP

L 80-83

+10.5

WGA

W 87-59

−4.5

SEMO

W 85-74

+3.5

UTM

L 62-86

+2.5

TNST

L 76-88

+8.5

L 58-77

−9.5

EIU

L 61-71

−8.5

WIU

W 59-54

−30.5

USI

L 54-71

−17.5

L 70-76

+4.5

LIN

L 68-89

+5.5

SIUE

L 58-62

−15.5

W 87-77

+22.5

TNST

W 90-85

+21.5

WIU

W 97-72

+25.5

EIU

L 54-60

−26.5

L 66-73

−4.5

USI

W 82-74

+15.5

SIUE

W 62-52

−20.5

LIN

W 72-57

−22.5

UTM

L 49-64

−21.5

SEMO

L 73-89

+20.5

over 14under 14avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Asheville

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

15-14

52% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L L W L L W W L L L L L L W W L L W W L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1452%

L W L L L W W W W L L L W W W L W W W L W W L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

U O U O U U O U O U U O O U O O U O U O O O U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WICH	L 58-75	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	@GASO	L 90-93	+5.5	W +2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsLIP	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 19	@WCU	L 73-80	-1.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsTNST	L 73-75	-5.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 148
Nov 30	vsAPP	W 67-55	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsUNCG	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	143.5	O 159
Dec 6	@NCSU	L 63-75	+28.5	W +16.5	155.5	U 138
Dec 10	vsM-OH	L 87-90	+6.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 177
Dec 13	vsSTMN	L 59-80	+3.5	L −17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 21	@UAB	L 47-72	+13.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 119
Dec 31	vsHPU	L 69-87	+10.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 3	@CHSO	L 83-86	+4.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 169
Jan 7	vsLONG	W 72-61	-2.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 10	@RAD	W 91-72	+4.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 14	@PRES	L 70-71	-2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 141
Jan 17	vsWIN	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 21	@UPST	W 83-69	+1.5	W +15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsGWEB	W 69-50	-17.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 119
Jan 31	@WIN	L 71-84	+9.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 4	vsUPST	W 76-67	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 12	@LONG	W 79-74	+2.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsPRES	L 57-58	-5.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 19	@HPU	L 48-74	+14.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 21	vsRAD	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Feb 26	@GWEB	W 77-71	-12.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 28	vsCHSO	L 75-92	-4.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 167
Mar 6	vsLONG	W 85-82	+1.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsHPU	L 71-75	+14.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−10.5

GASO

L 90-93

+2.5

LIP

W 69-64

−1.5

WCU

L 73-80

−8.5

TNST

L 73-75

−7.5

APP

W 67-55

+10.5

UNCG

W 82-77

+0.5

NCSU

L 63-75

+16.5

M-OH

L 87-90

+3.5

STMN

L 59-80

−17.5

UAB

L 47-72

−11.5

HPU

L 69-87

−7.5

CHSO

L 83-86

+1.5

LONG

W 72-61

+8.5

RAD

W 91-72

+23.5

PRES

L 70-71

−3.5

WIN

L 67-69

+3.5

UPST

W 83-69

+15.5

GWEB

W 69-50

+1.5

WIN

L 71-84

−3.5

UPST

W 76-67

+2.5

LONG

W 79-74

+7.5

PRES

L 57-58

−6.5

HPU

L 48-74

−11.5

RAD

W 74-73

−1.5

GWEB

W 77-71

−6.5

CHSO

L 75-92

−21.5

LONG

W 85-82

+4.5

HPU

L 71-75

+10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 14avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−24.5

GASO

L 90-93

+20.5

LIP

W 69-64

−25.5

WCU

L 73-80

+0.5

TNST

L 73-75

−16.5

APP

W 67-55

−15.5

UNCG

W 82-77

+15.5

NCSU

L 63-75

−17.5

M-OH

L 87-90

+24.5

STMN

L 59-80

−9.5

UAB

L 47-72

−32.5

HPU

L 69-87

+4.5

CHSO

L 83-86

+17.5

LONG

W 72-61

−15.5

RAD

W 91-72

+11.5

PRES

L 70-71

+2.5

WIN

L 67-69

−16.5

UPST

W 83-69

+6.5

GWEB

W 69-50

−30.5

WIN

L 71-84

+7.5

UPST

W 76-67

+3.5

LONG

W 79-74

+11.5

PRES

L 57-58

−22.5

HPU

L 48-74

−30.5

RAD

W 74-73

−2.5

GWEB

W 77-71

+2.5

CHSO

L 75-92

+18.5

LONG

W 85-82

+26.5

HPU

L 71-75

−1.5

over 15under 14avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tennessee Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee Tech 2, UNC Asheville 0, even 3

Tennessee TechBetterUNC Asheville

G T. Mosquera TR13.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55

TNTCBig

G K. Phipps TR4.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15

G T. Owens7.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17

Even

G K. Dunn TR7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9

G D. Hackett TR13.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 78

No call

G J. Anderson TR1.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G C. Newton TR10.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 55

TNTCBig

F M. Mayfield4 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 5

G C. Hollenbeck TR5 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 6

Even

F D. Thomas2.6 pts · 5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5

Tennessee TechBetterUNC Asheville

TNTC offense276th of 366 · -8.4

Even

UNCA defense230th of 366 · -6.1

TNTC defense288th of 366 · -7.2

Even

UNCA offense294th of 366 · -9.1

Backcourt-4.8 · 5 players

Even

Backcourt-4.7 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-5.8 · 2 players

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

TNTCSmall

Bench-2.6 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestTNTC betterUNCA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tennessee Tech

Guards

T. Mosquera32 min · TRT. Owens28 minD. Hackett28 min · TRC. Newton26 min · TRC. Hollenbeck17 min · TRC. GonzalesNew

Forwards

D. Christensen13 min · TRM. Turner8 minC. Sanders8 min · TRD. GreenNewS. ArnoldNewK. FoxNew

UNC Asheville

Guards

K. Phipps18 min · TRK. Dunn17 min · TRJ. Anderson17 min · TRC. Jones7 minT. ChatmanNewC. DubskyNew

Forwards

M. Mayfield23 minD. Thomas21 minA. Magassa10 min · TRS. Tolentino8 minB. RiversNewQ. MansfieldNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TNTC70.3 #280

UNCA71.9 #248

Points per possession

TNTC1.03 #287

UNCA1.06 #236

Pace (possessions)

TNTC68.3 #214

UNCA68.0 #230

Shooting

Effective FG%

TNTC48.9 #293

UNCA51.0 #194

3-point %

TNTC31.1 #316

UNCA35.1 #110

3-point attempt rate

TNTC36.5 #238

UNCA33.6 #307

Free throw rate

TNTC35.5 #164

UNCA40.0 #60

Possessions

Turnover rate

TNTC19.1 #325

UNCA17.4 #230

Offensive rebound rate

TNTC31.3 #151

UNCA29.8 #211

Assists per game

TNTC11.0 #337

UNCA10.1 #358

Defense

Points allowed

TNTC75.6 #207

UNCA74.2 #161

Points allowed per possession

TNTC1.11 #231

UNCA1.09 #203

Opponent effective FG%

TNTC51.5 #186

UNCA51.3 #175

Opponent 3-point %

TNTC35.8 #295

UNCA32.6 #93

Turnovers forced

TNTC15.0 #285

UNCA15.5 #251

Defensive rebound rate

TNTC69.3 #192

UNCA68.7 #218

Steals per game

TNTC5.4 #312

UNCA5.1 #324

Blocks per game

TNTC2.7 #275

UNCA3.5 #133

TNTC		UNCA
Scoring
70.3 #280	Points per game	71.9 #248
1.03 #287	Points per possession	1.06 #236
68.3 #214	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #230
Shooting
48.9 #293	Effective FG%	51.0 #194
31.1 #316	3-point %	35.1 #110
36.5 #238	3-point attempt rate	33.6 #307
35.5 #164	Free throw rate	40.0 #60
Possessions
19.1 #325	Turnover rate	17.4 #230
31.3 #151	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #211
11.0 #337	Assists per game	10.1 #358
Defense
75.6 #207	Points allowed	74.2 #161
1.11 #231	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #203
51.5 #186	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #175
35.8 #295	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #93
15.0 #285	Turnovers forced	15.5 #251
69.3 #192	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #218
5.4 #312	Steals per game	5.1 #324
2.7 #275	Blocks per game	3.5 #133

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tennessee Tech

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ SE Missouri73–89
L@ UT Martin49–64
Wvs Lindenwood Lions72–57
Wvs SIUE62–52
W@ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles82–74

A week or more of rest.

UNC Asheville

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point71–75
Wvs Longwood85–82
Lvs Charleston So75–92
W@ Gardner-Webb77–71
Wvs Radford74–73

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at UNC Asheville Bulldogs

What could decide it: UNCA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee Tech

UNC Asheville

Tennessee Tech has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Tennessee Tech

UNC Asheville