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  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. MIZ vs MARQ
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

Missouri Tigers vs Marquette Golden Eagles

United Center · Neutral site
#54MIZMissouri
vs
#42MARQMarquette
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MIZThis seasonMARQ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MARQ 77–75 · win probability MARQ 56%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

MIZ 3, MARQ 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIZ 34.9%, MARQ 29.7%. Defensive: MIZ 68.3%, MARQ 65.3%
MARQBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIZ 17.7%, MARQ 16.1%. Forced: MIZ 16.6%, MARQ 19.3%
MIZSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5; MARQ 50.5 and allows 50.6
MIZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIZ 42.1, MARQ 32.8. Allowed: MIZ 35.5, MARQ 32.0
MARQSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIZ 33%, MARQ 64%. Transfers in: MIZ 6, MARQ 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MIZ plays 68.8 a game (191st fastest), MARQ 70.9 (79th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%; MARQ hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 36.4% and 42.2% of their shots
Even
MIZ offense vs MARQ defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 36th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MIZ has played the 45th-hardest schedule, MARQ the 37th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
MARQ offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 46th of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MARQ -1.7—
Total—152.5—
Projected score—MIZ 75.4 · MARQ 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMARQ -0.9—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreMIZ 35.2 · MARQ 36.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Marquette has the better starters

Position by position: Missouri 1, Marquette 3, even 1
MissouriBetterMarquette
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
Even
G C. Porter TR11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 45
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
MARQSmall
G N. Minessale TR19.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 4.2 ast Score 97
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
MARQBig
G N. James16.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.9 ast Score 99
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
MIZSmall
G A. Stevens7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 65
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
MARQSmall
F R. Parham12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 87
MissouriBetterMarquette
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Even
MARQ defense36th of 366 · +3.1
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
Even
MARQ offense46th of 366 · +4.2
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
MARQBig
Backcourt+8.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
MARQSmall
Frontcourt+2.5 · 1 player
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench+2.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIZ betterMARQ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
Marquette
Guards
C. Porter35 min · TRN. Minessale32 min · TRN. James29 minA. Stevens26 minE. JohnstonNewN. WalkerNew
Forwards
R. Parham29 minS. Fru22 min · TRD. Owens16 minC. Hamilton13 minM. Phillips8 minJ. Clark6 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MIZMARQ
Scoring
79.2 #78Points per game75.2 #160
1.15 #65Points per possession1.06 #223
68.8 #191Pace (possessions)70.9 #79
Shooting
55.0 #36Effective FG%50.5 #215
35.0 #1123-point %31.7 #297
36.4 #2403-point attempt rate42.2 #133
42.1 #28Free throw rate32.8 #243
Possessions
17.7 #255Turnover rate16.1 #145
34.9 #48Offensive rebound rate29.7 #216
14.2 #132Assists per game15.5 #63
Defense
75.5 #204Points allowed75.8 #213
1.10 #224Points allowed per possession1.07 #125
51.5 #183Opponent effective FG%50.6 #131
36.8 #341Opponent 3-point %32.7 #104
16.6 #182Turnovers forced19.3 #39
68.3 #238Defensive rebound rate65.3 #331
6.6 #162Steals per game9.3 #5
3.5 #140Blocks per game3.1 #207
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.

Marquette

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Xavier87–89
  • Wvs UConn68–62
  • W@ Providence78–56
  • Lvs DePaul51–62
  • W@ Georgetown76–60

A week or more of rest.