Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Eastern Illinois Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 3:00 PM ETGroniger Arena · at E Illinois

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Purdue FW and E Illinois
PFW	This season	EIU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PFW 75–70 · win probability PFW 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PFW has more of the edges

PFW 3, EIU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PFWBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PFW 14.5%, EIU 18.6%. Forced: PFW 19.1%, EIU 19.3%

PFWBig

PFW offense vs EIU defense

Offense 218th of 366 against a defense 332nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PFW has played the 209th-hardest schedule, EIU the 314th. A record against a soft schedule means less

EIUSmall

Three-pointers

PFW hits 34.2% and allows 37.9%; EIU hits 31.7% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 45.4% and 29.9% of their shots

PFWSmall

EIU offense vs PFW defense

Offense 360th of 366 against a defense 291st, on the model’s ratings

EIUSmall

Home court

EIU at home. This season: EIU 0-0 at home, PFW 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: PFW plays 69.0 a game (179th fastest), EIU 67.0 (280th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PFW 30.6, EIU 33.5. Allowed: PFW 28.6, EIU 35.3

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PFW 22.9%, EIU 28.2%. Defensive: PFW 65.5%, EIU 64.8%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PFW 52.6 and allows 56.1; EIU 45.7 and allows 50.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PFW 29%, EIU 22%. Transfers in: PFW 2, EIU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PFW -5.3	—
Total	—	144.5	—
Projected score	—	PFW 74.9 · EIU 69.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PFW -3.3	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	PFW 35.5 · EIU 32.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PFW LWLWL	13-16	45%	8-9	—
EIU LWLWW	17-13	57%	6-6	—

Venue/role: PFW away; EIU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PFW OOUOU	16-13	55%	14-15
EIU OUUOO	14-16	47%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PFW	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
EIU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Purdue FW

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ BRAD	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ SEMO	W89–80LO
Nov 28	vs WOF	No recent meeting

E Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ VAN	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ ILL	L67–112LO
Nov 28	vs NIU	W72–59WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Purdue FW

29 games played

Straight up

14-15

48% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-13

55% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1548%

L L L L L W L W W W W L L W W W W W L W L L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L L L W L W L W W L W L L L W W W W L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1355%

O O U O U O O O U O U U U U U O O O U O O U U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GCU	L 71-90	+14.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	@OSU	L 68-94	+24.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 12	@WMU	L 71-83	-3.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 18	@UTAH	L 77-85	+13.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 21	@SLU	L 60-91	+19.5	L −11.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 25	vsCHST	W 90-77	-12.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 3	@OAK	L 92-101	+4.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 193
Dec 6	vsNKU	W 79-77	-1.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEMU	W 80-65	-3.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 14	vsDETM	W 81-77	-9.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 158
Dec 21	@ND	W 72-69	+11.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 141
Dec 29	@MILW	L 55-77	+3.5	L −18.5	156.5	U 132
Jan 1	vsGB	L 54-72	-8.5	L −26.5	145.5	U 126
Jan 4	vsCLE	W 74-71	-11.5	L −8.5	159.5	U 145
Jan 7	@YSU	W 71-69	+4.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 11	@RMU	W 79-74	+4.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 18	vsMILW	W 100-82	-3.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 21	@DETM	W 83-76	-2.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsOAK	L 65-74	+1.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 139
Jan 31	vsRMU	W 83-71	-2.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 154
Feb 4	vsYSU	L 61-90	-2.5	L −31.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 7	@WRST	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 12	@GB	L 59-76	-1.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 135
Feb 15	vsIUIN	W 83-78	-7.5	L −2.5	159.5	O 161
Feb 18	@NKU	L 71-87	+5.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 158
Feb 22	@CLE	W 92-86	-3.5	W +2.5	163.5	O 178
Feb 25	vsWRST	L 70-74	+1.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 28	@IUIN	W 87-81	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 168
Mar 3	@GB	L 56-64	+3.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

−4.5

OSU

L 68-94

−1.5

WMU

L 71-83

−15.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+5.5

SLU

L 60-91

−11.5

CHST

W 90-77

+0.5

OAK

L 92-101

−4.5

NKU

W 79-77

+0.5

EMU

W 80-65

+11.5

DETM

W 81-77

−5.5

W 72-69

+14.5

MILW

L 55-77

−18.5

L 54-72

−26.5

CLE

W 74-71

−8.5

YSU

W 71-69

+6.5

RMU

W 79-74

+9.5

MILW

W 100-82

+14.5

DETM

W 83-76

+4.5

OAK

L 65-74

−7.5

RMU

W 83-71

+9.5

YSU

L 61-90

−31.5

WRST

L 68-73

+1.5

L 59-76

−18.5

IUIN

W 83-78

−2.5

NKU

L 71-87

−10.5

CLE

W 92-86

+2.5

WRST

L 70-74

−2.5

IUIN

W 87-81

+4.5

L 56-64

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

+5.5

OSU

L 68-94

+2.5

WMU

L 71-83

−7.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+0.5

SLU

L 60-91

−15.5

CHST

W 90-77

+17.5

OAK

L 92-101

+30.5

NKU

W 79-77

+2.5

EMU

W 80-65

−2.5

DETM

W 81-77

+4.5

W 72-69

−8.5

MILW

L 55-77

−24.5

L 54-72

−19.5

CLE

W 74-71

−14.5

YSU

W 71-69

−5.5

RMU

W 79-74

+6.5

MILW

W 100-82

+33.5

DETM

W 83-76

+3.5

OAK

L 65-74

−23.5

RMU

W 83-71

+8.5

YSU

L 61-90

+3.5

WRST

L 68-73

−9.5

L 59-76

−9.5

IUIN

W 83-78

+1.5

NKU

L 71-87

+4.5

CLE

W 92-86

+14.5

WRST

L 70-74

−6.5

IUIN

W 87-81

+4.5

L 56-64

−25.5

over 16under 13avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

E Illinois

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L L L L L L L W L L W W W L W L L L L W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W W W L L L W L W W W W W W L L W L L L W W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U O O O O U U O U U U U U O U O O U U U O O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 14	@UK	L 53-99	+35.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 25	@CARK	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 28	@PUR	L 62-109	+40.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 6	vsLIN	L 74-82	+8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEKU	L 59-68	+6.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 14	@ISU	L 53-78	+43.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 18	vsSIUE	W 76-72	+6.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 148
Jan 1	@SEMO	L 59-68	+12.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	@UTM	L 61-65	+10.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 126
Jan 8	vsTNTC	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsTNST	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 13	vsWIU	W 57-55	-6.5	L −4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 15	@LR	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 22	@USI	W 59-51	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 24	@MORE	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 141
Jan 29	vsUTM	L 68-76	+3.5	L −4.5	129.5	O 144
Jan 31	vsSEMO	L 59-77	+4.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	@TNST	L 68-77	+9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	@TNTC	W 60-54	+4.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 10	@WIU	L 70-79	-4.5	L −13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsLR	W 78-72	+2.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsMORE	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 21	vsUSI	L 68-70	-4.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 26	@LIN	W 71-67	+7.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@SIUE	L 50-77	+5.5	L −21.5	129.5	U 127
Mar 4	vsSIUE	W 77-71	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUTM	L 63-66	+7.5	W +4.5	126.5	O 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

L 53-99

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−15.5

PUR

L 62-109

−6.5

LIN

L 74-82

+0.5

EKU

L 59-68

−2.5

ISU

L 53-78

+18.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+10.5

SEMO

L 59-68

+3.5

UTM

L 61-65

+6.5

TNTC

W 71-61

+11.5

TNST

W 74-70

+7.5

WIU

W 57-55

−4.5

L 63-74

−4.5

USI

W 59-51

+10.5

L 68-73

−0.5

UTM

L 68-76

−4.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−13.5

TNST

L 68-77

+0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

+10.5

WIU

L 70-79

−13.5

W 78-72

+8.5

L 70-73

−1.5

USI

L 68-70

−6.5

LIN

W 71-67

+11.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−21.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+9.5

UTM

L 63-66

+4.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

L 53-99

+4.5

CARK

L 60-81

+1.5

PUR

L 62-109

+29.5

LIN

L 74-82

+10.5

EKU

L 59-68

−22.5

ISU

L 53-78

−13.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+13.5

SEMO

L 59-68

−19.5

UTM

L 61-65

−7.5

TNTC

W 71-61

−8.5

TNST

W 74-70

−0.5

WIU

W 57-55

−20.5

L 63-74

+3.5

USI

W 59-51

−25.5

L 68-73

+6.5

UTM

L 68-76

+14.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−2.5

TNST

L 68-77

−0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

−26.5

WIU

L 70-79

+15.5

W 78-72

+15.5

L 70-73

+5.5

USI

L 68-70

+2.5

LIN

W 71-67

−6.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−2.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+19.5

UTM

L 63-66

+2.5

over 14under 16avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Purdue FW 0, E Illinois 0, even 5

Purdue FWBetterE Illinois

G D. Craig13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 68

No call

G J. Elder8 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G A. Williamson TR7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 16

Even

G M. Blackwell4.4 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7

G C. Morgan2.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2

Even

F A. Austin2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 1

G E. Mosley2.8 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 9

No call

F D. Burton NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F A. Isaac TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 63

No call

C T. Vogel NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

Purdue FWBetterE Illinois

PFW offense218th of 366 · -6.7

PFWSmall

EIU defense332nd of 366 · -8.7

PFW defense291st of 366 · -7.3

PFWSmall

EIU offense360th of 366 · -14.1

Backcourt-5.6 · 4 players

EIUBig

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.4 · 1 player

PFWSmall

Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players

Bench-0.2 · 1 player

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestPFW betterEIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Purdue FW

Guards

D. Craig30 minA. Williamson23 min · TRC. Morgan14 minE. Mosley12 minM. Shrout3 minD. LewisNew

Forwards

A. Isaac24 min · TRE. OrtizNewQ. MorganNewA. WalkerNew

E Illinois

Guards

J. Elder17 minM. Blackwell16 minD. DavenportNewJ. MillerNewJ. CallowayNewS. SimsNew

Forwards

A. Austin10 minD. BurtonNewG. WelchNewD. NtambweNewE. HillsmanNew

Centers

T. VogelNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PFW74.2 #189

EIU64.6 #351

Points per possession

PFW1.07 #204

EIU0.96 #350

Pace (possessions)

PFW69.0 #179

EIU67.0 #280

Shooting

Effective FG%

PFW52.6 #125

EIU45.7 #353

3-point %

PFW34.2 #163

EIU31.7 #292

3-point attempt rate

PFW45.4 #60

EIU29.9 #352

Free throw rate

PFW30.6 #292

EIU33.5 #224

Possessions

Turnover rate

PFW14.5 #43

EIU18.6 #301

Offensive rebound rate

PFW22.9 #351

EIU28.2 #256

Assists per game

PFW13.1 #207

EIU11.1 #336

Defense

Points allowed

PFW78.8 #286

EIU72.2 #111

Points allowed per possession

PFW1.14 #311

EIU1.08 #152

Opponent effective FG%

PFW56.1 #345

EIU50.8 #146

Opponent 3-point %

PFW37.9 #355

EIU31.7 #50

Turnovers forced

PFW19.1 #44

EIU19.3 #37

Defensive rebound rate

PFW65.5 #327

EIU64.8 #343

Steals per game

PFW7.9 #42

EIU7.5 #78

Blocks per game

PFW3.0 #224

EIU2.9 #251

PFW		EIU
Scoring
74.2 #189	Points per game	64.6 #351
1.07 #204	Points per possession	0.96 #350
69.0 #179	Pace (possessions)	67.0 #280
Shooting
52.6 #125	Effective FG%	45.7 #353
34.2 #163	3-point %	31.7 #292
45.4 #60	3-point attempt rate	29.9 #352
30.6 #292	Free throw rate	33.5 #224
Possessions
14.5 #43	Turnover rate	18.6 #301
22.9 #351	Offensive rebound rate	28.2 #256
13.1 #207	Assists per game	11.1 #336
Defense
78.8 #286	Points allowed	72.2 #111
1.14 #311	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #152
56.1 #345	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #146
37.9 #355	Opponent 3-point %	31.7 #50
19.1 #44	Turnovers forced	19.3 #37
65.5 #327	Defensive rebound rate	64.8 #343
7.9 #42	Steals per game	7.5 #78
3.0 #224	Blocks per game	2.9 #251

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Purdue FW

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Green Bay56–64
W@ IU Indy87–81
Lvs Wright St70–74
W@ Cleveland St92–86
L@ N Kentucky71–87

A week or more of rest.

E Illinois

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Martin63–66
Wvs SIUE77–71
L@ SIUE50–77
W@ Lindenwood Lions71–67
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles68–70

A week or more of rest.

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Eastern Illinois Panthers

What could decide it: PFW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Purdue FW

E Illinois

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Purdue FW

E Illinois