1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. YALE @ NE
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Yale Bulldogs at Northeastern Huskies

Cabot Center · at Northeastern
#126YALEYale
@
#228NENortheastern
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
YALEThis seasonNE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects YALE 79–74 · win probability YALE 66%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: YALE has more of the edges

YALE 7, NE 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
YALEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: YALE 35.1, NE 29.4. Allowed: YALE 26.8, NE 41.9
YALEBig
YALE offense vs NE defense
Offense 125th of 366 against a defense 263rd, on the model’s ratings
YALEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: YALE 55.6 and allows 51.6; NE 52.4 and allows 56.4
YALEBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: YALE 34.2%, NE 27.3%. Defensive: YALE 70.3%, NE 69.8%
YALEBig
Three-pointers
YALE hits 39.4% and allows 35.0%; NE hits 33.7% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 36.1% and 37.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: YALE plays 66.4 a game (301st fastest), NE 69.9 (120th). Faster games mean more points
YALESmall
NE offense vs YALE defense
Offense 194th of 366 against a defense 136th, on the model’s ratings
NESmall
Home court
NE at home. This season: NE 0-0 at home, YALE 0-0 away
YALESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: YALE 14.0%, NE 16.3%. Forced: YALE 16.2%, NE 16.8%
Context
Schedule so far
YALE has played the 141st-hardest schedule, NE the 185th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: YALE 42%, NE 43%. Transfers in: YALE 0, NE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—YALE -4.8—
Total—152.7—
Projected score—YALE 78.8 · NE 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadYALE -3.0—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreYALE 37.2 · NE 34.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Yale has the better starters

Position by position: Yale 1, Northeastern 0, even 4
YaleBetterNortheastern
G T. Mullin11.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63
YALESmall
G M. Loughnane10.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 45
G J. Brathwaite6.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 35
Even
G R. King TR5.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46
G C. Wallace1.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Newton5.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
F R. Fox9.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 76
Even
G R. Williams7.4 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
F J. Sullivan1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
C P. Pinter3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5
YaleBetterNortheastern
YALE offense125th of 366 · -3.3
YALEBig
NE defense263rd of 366 · -6.8
YALE defense136th of 366 · -2.8
YALESmall
NE offense194th of 366 · -6.0
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-0.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
YALESmall
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
YALESmall
Bench-1.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestYALE betterNE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Yale
Guards
T. Mullin28 minJ. Brathwaite19 minC. Wallace4 minJ. Basima3 minA. Loving3 minJ. Tsai2 min
Forwards
R. Fox18 minJ. Sullivan5 minD. Ogunyemi3 minC. MayNewT. WinklerNewC. BolteNew
Centers
J. OwareNew
Northeastern
Guards
M. Loughnane31 minR. King19 min · TRM. Newton17 minR. Williams15 minL. Bond14 min · TRD. GrosberNew
Forwards
B. Young5 min · TRJ. IcitovicNewD. JungNewS. BaptisteNew
Centers
P. Pinter14 minL. Koelsch9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
YALENE
Scoring
80.1 #64Points per game74.9 #168
1.21 #10Points per possession1.07 #210
66.4 #301Pace (possessions)69.9 #120
Shooting
55.6 #26Effective FG%52.4 #130
39.4 #33-point %33.7 #187
36.1 #2473-point attempt rate37.8 #218
35.1 #172Free throw rate29.4 #324
Possessions
14.0 #22Turnover rate16.3 #159
34.2 #62Offensive rebound rate27.3 #286
15.8 #53Assists per game15.3 #75
Defense
71.8 #102Points allowed80.9 #331
1.08 #166Points allowed per possession1.16 #335
51.6 #192Opponent effective FG%56.4 #351
35.0 #250Opponent 3-point %35.8 #297
16.2 #207Turnovers forced16.8 #163
70.3 #147Defensive rebound rate69.8 #169
5.3 #314Steals per game7.0 #131
3.2 #193Blocks per game3.0 #229
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Yale

22-7 in 2025-26 overall · 12-4 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington67–68
  • Lvs Penn84–88
  • Wvs Cornell88–76
  • Wvs Princeton78–53
  • W@ Columbia60–54

A week or more of rest.

Northeastern

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drexel77–84
  • Wvs NC A&T88–72
  • Lvs Monmouth83–89
  • L@ Hampton65–76
  • L@ William & Mary77–84

A week or more of rest.