1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. MSM @ VT
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Virginia Tech Hokies

Cassell Coliseum · at Virginia Tech
#278MSMMount St Marys
@
#68VTVirginia Tech
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MSMThis seasonVT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VT 84–62 · win probability VT 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VT has more of the edges

MSM 1, VT 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VTBig
MSM offense vs VT defense
Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 72nd, on the model’s ratings
VTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MSM 22.4%, VT 14.9%. Forced: MSM 15.3%, VT 17.3%
Context
Schedule so far
MSM has played the 291st-hardest schedule, VT the 74th. A record against a soft schedule means less
VTBig
VT offense vs MSM defense
Offense 68th of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings
VTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MSM 33.3, VT 34.0. Allowed: MSM 37.3, VT 28.8
VTSmall
Three-pointers
MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%; VT hits 35.5% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 42.6% and 39.7% of their shots
MSMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MSM 32.3%, VT 31.9%. Defensive: MSM 70.9%, VT 67.4%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MSM plays 68.0 a game (231st fastest), VT 69.8 (127th). Faster games mean more points
VTSmall
Home court
VT at home. This season: VT 0-0 at home, MSM 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2; VT 52.2 and allows 50.9
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MSM 42%, VT 47%. Transfers in: MSM 3, VT 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VT -22.6—
Total—146.1—
Projected score—MSM 61.7 · VT 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVT -13.3—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scoreMSM 27.5 · VT 40.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Virginia Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Mount St Marys 0, Virginia Tech 4, even 1
Mount St MarysBetterVirginia Tech
G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55
Even
G E. Copeland TR14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 67
G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49
VTBig
G B. Hammond13.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 3.2 ast Score 89
G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2
VTBig
G I. Elohim TR12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71
G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13
VTBig
G T. Johnson8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 77
F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43
VTBig
F A. Hansberry14.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92
Mount St MarysBetterVirginia Tech
MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5
VTBig
VT defense72nd of 366 · +0.8
MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8
VTBig
VT offense68th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
VTBig
Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
VTBig
Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
VTBig
Bench+1.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMSM betterVT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mount St Marys
Guards
A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR
Forwards
W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew
Virginia Tech
Guards
E. Copeland32 min · TRB. Hammond32 minI. Elohim29 min · TRT. Johnson26 minJ. Curry24 min · TRB. Johnson21 min · TR
Forwards
A. Hansberry31 minM. Heide19 min · TRK. Atak14 min · TRS. Jones7 min
Centers
M. Sagnia12 min · TRS. DavisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MSMVT
Scoring
67.9 #315Points per game78.8 #85
1.00 #327Points per possession1.13 #89
68.0 #231Pace (possessions)69.8 #127
Shooting
50.6 #208Effective FG%52.2 #134
32.7 #2443-point %35.5 #88
42.6 #1253-point attempt rate39.7 #179
33.3 #230Free throw rate34.0 #209
Possessions
22.4 #364Turnover rate14.9 #60
32.3 #115Offensive rebound rate31.9 #129
13.2 #196Assists per game14.4 #122
Defense
71.0 #74Points allowed74.9 #184
1.05 #84Points allowed per possession1.07 #141
47.2 #23Opponent effective FG%50.9 #147
32.3 #81Opponent 3-point %30.6 #26
15.3 #262Turnovers forced17.3 #131
70.9 #114Defensive rebound rate67.4 #284
5.8 #261Steals per game6.4 #187
2.9 #248Blocks per game3.2 #190
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena58–63
  • W@ Fairfield69–47
  • L@ Sacred Heart69–77
  • Wvs Canisius68–47
  • Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Virginia Tech

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wake Forest89–95
  • L@ Virginia72–76
  • Wvs Boston College72–63
  • L@ North Carolina82–89
  • Wvs Wake Forest82–63

A week or more of rest.