Richmond Spiders at Virginia Tech Hokies: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 16, 7:00 PM ETCassell Coliseum · at Virginia Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Richmond and Virginia Tech
RICH	This season	VT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VT 81–71 · win probability VT 81%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VT has more of the edges

RICH 0, VT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RICH 25.0%, VT 31.9%. Defensive: RICH 69.0%, VT 67.4%

VTSmall

Home court

VT at home. This season: VT 0-0 at home, RICH 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

RICH has played the 125th-hardest schedule, VT the 74th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

RICH offense vs VT defense

Offense 113th of 366 against a defense 72nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

VT offense vs RICH defense

Offense 68th of 366 against a defense 105th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: RICH plays 68.8 a game (194th fastest), VT 69.8 (127th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RICH 29%, VT 47%. Transfers in: RICH 6, VT 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: RICH 36.9, VT 34.0. Allowed: RICH 35.1, VT 28.8

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: RICH 52.7 and allows 52.0; VT 52.2 and allows 50.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RICH 14.3%, VT 14.9%. Forced: RICH 17.8%, VT 17.3%

Even

Three-pointers

RICH hits 37.1% and allows 32.7%; VT hits 35.5% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 42.6% and 39.7% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VT -10.1	—
Total	—	151.2	—
Projected score	—	RICH 70.5 · VT 80.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VT -5.9	—
1H total	70.7	—
1H projected score	RICH 32.4 · VT 38.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICH WLWWL	16-15	52%	7-4	—
VT WWLWL	19-13	59%	8-9	—

Venue/role: RICH away; VT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICH OUUOO	14-17	45%	14-17
VT UOUOO	17-15	53%	19-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICH	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
VT	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Richmond

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs WKU	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs LIB	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs BCU	No recent meeting

Virginia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs NU	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs OKST	W70–65WO
Nov 27	vs ODU	W75–71LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RICH 0–1 VTVT leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · RICH 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2023-24	RICH 58 @ VT 74	VT -5.5	VT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Richmond

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W L W L W L L W W L W L L L W L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O U O U U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U U O O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 19	vsVMI	W 87-54	-14.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	vsGWEB	W 102-67	-19.5	W +15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsFUR	L 72-73	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsCLT	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	@BEL	W 84-76	+6.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 6	vsODU	W 86-77	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	vsSIU	W 93-84	-3.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 17	@ELON	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	vsCIT	W 80-56	-18.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 28	vsCHSO	L 72-77	-11.5	L −16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	vsGW	L 85-99	+2.5	L −11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 4	@FOR	W 83-75	-2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 7	@SBU	W 89-80	+6.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsJOES	L 65-67	-7.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsLAS	W 74-53	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 17	@SLU	L 63-88	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsURI	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	@GW	L 69-85	+10.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@VCU	L 69-77	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsDAV	L 54-79	-1.5	L −26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 7	@URI	L 77-82	+5.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	vsGMU	W 82-70	+3.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 14	vsVCU	L 67-78	+7.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 18	@DAV	L 63-65	+5.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	vsSBU	W 99-94	-1.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 28	@LUC	L 66-69	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 3	vsDAY	L 60-65	+5.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 7	@DUQ	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 11	vsLUC	L 67-75	-4.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

VMI

W 87-54

+18.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+15.5

FUR

L 72-73

−4.5

CLT

W 71-66

−1.5

BEL

W 84-76

+14.5

ODU

W 86-77

−3.5

SIU

W 93-84

+5.5

ELON

L 70-73

−6.5

CIT

W 80-56

+5.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−16.5

L 85-99

−11.5

FOR

W 83-75

+5.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−9.5

LAS

W 74-53

+12.5

SLU

L 63-88

−10.5

URI

L 68-69

−4.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

+4.5

DAV

L 54-79

−26.5

URI

L 77-82

+0.5

GMU

W 82-70

+15.5

VCU

L 67-78

−3.5

DAV

L 63-65

+3.5

SBU

W 99-94

+3.5

LUC

L 66-69

−5.5

DAY

L 60-65

+0.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+2.5

LUC

L 67-75

−12.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

VMI

W 87-54

−11.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+14.5

FUR

L 72-73

−2.5

CLT

W 71-66

−4.5

BEL

W 84-76

+3.5

ODU

W 86-77

+9.5

SIU

W 93-84

+23.5

ELON

L 70-73

−18.5

CIT

W 80-56

−10.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−10.5

L 85-99

+21.5

FOR

W 83-75

+15.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−18.5

LAS

W 74-53

−20.5

SLU

L 63-88

−11.5

URI

L 68-69

−7.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

−9.5

DAV

L 54-79

−7.5

URI

L 77-82

+16.5

GMU

W 82-70

+12.5

VCU

L 67-78

−9.5

DAV

L 63-65

−13.5

SBU

W 99-94

+45.5

LUC

L 66-69

−11.5

DAY

L 60-65

−19.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+8.5

LUC

L 67-75

+0.5

over 14under 17avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Virginia Tech

32 games played

Straight up

19-13

59% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1359%

W W W W W W L L W W W W W W L L W L W W L W L L W L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1359%

W W W L L L L L W W W W L W W L L W W W W L L W W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

O O U O U U U O O U O U O O O U O U O U U U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHSO	W 98-67	-18.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsPROV	W 107-101	+2.5	W +8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 12	vsJOES	W 94-59	-12.5	W +22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 16	vsCLT	W 84-76	-18.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 19	vsBRY	W 78-61	-24.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 26	vsCSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 130
Nov 27	vsSMC	L 66-77	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVCU	L 68-86	+2.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 154
Dec 2	@SC	W 86-83	+2.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsGMU	W 73-62	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 11	vsWCU	W 96-74	-20.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 14	vsUMES	W 82-53	-27.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 20	vsELON	W 82-81	-12.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 31	vsUVA	W 95-85	+5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 180
Jan 3	@WAKE	L 78-81	+5.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 7	vsSTAN	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 10	vsCAL	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 153
Jan 14	@SMU	L 76-77	+8.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 153
Jan 17	vsND	W 89-76	-6.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 21	@SYR	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 24	@LOU	L 71-85	+14.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 156
Jan 27	vsGT	W 71-65	-9.5	L −3.5	155.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsDUKE	L 58-72	+13.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 130
Feb 7	@NCSU	L 73-82	+10.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 155
Feb 11	@CLEM	W 76-66	+8.5	W +18.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsFSU	L 69-92	-4.5	L −27.5	156.5	O 161
Feb 17	@MIA	L 66-67	+8.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 133
Feb 21	vsWAKE	W 82-63	-3.5	W +15.5	150.5	U 145
Feb 28	@UNC	L 82-89	+7.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 171
Mar 3	vsBC	W 72-63	-11.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 7	@UVA	L 72-76	+11.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 148
Mar 10	vsWAKE	L 89-95	+1.5	L −4.5	150.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+12.5

PROV

W 107-101

+8.5

JOES

W 94-59

+22.5

CLT

W 84-76

−10.5

BRY

W 78-61

−7.5

CSU

W 66-64

−2.5

SMC

L 66-77

−5.5

VCU

L 68-86

−15.5

W 86-83

+5.5

GMU

W 73-62

+6.5

WCU

W 96-74

+1.5

UMES

W 82-53

+1.5

ELON

W 82-81

−11.5

UVA

W 95-85

+15.5

WAKE

L 78-81

+2.5

STAN

L 68-69

−4.5

CAL

W 78-75

−2.5

SMU

L 76-77

+7.5

W 89-76

+6.5

SYR

W 76-74

+5.5

LOU

L 71-85

+0.5

W 71-65

−3.5

DUKE

L 58-72

−0.5

NCSU

L 73-82

+1.5

CLEM

W 76-66

+18.5

FSU

L 69-92

−27.5

MIA

L 66-67

+7.5

WAKE

W 82-63

+15.5

UNC

L 82-89

+0.5

W 72-63

−2.5

UVA

L 72-76

+7.5

WAKE

L 89-95

−4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+18.5

PROV

W 107-101

+50.5

JOES

W 94-59

−5.5

CLT

W 84-76

+14.5

BRY

W 78-61

−12.5

CSU

W 66-64

−23.5

SMC

L 66-77

−1.5

VCU

L 68-86

+0.5

W 86-83

+19.5

GMU

W 73-62

−9.5

WCU

W 96-74

+17.5

UMES

W 82-53

−4.5

ELON

W 82-81

+4.5

UVA

W 95-85

+26.5

WAKE

L 78-81

+5.5

STAN

L 68-69

−11.5

CAL

W 78-75

+4.5

SMU

L 76-77

−2.5

W 89-76

+21.5

SYR

W 76-74

−2.5

LOU

L 71-85

−4.5

W 71-65

−19.5

DUKE

L 58-72

−18.5

NCSU

L 73-82

+0.5

CLEM

W 76-66

+3.5

FSU

L 69-92

+4.5

MIA

L 66-67

−15.5

WAKE

W 82-63

−5.5

UNC

L 82-89

+21.5

W 72-63

−7.5

UVA

L 72-76

+2.5

WAKE

L 89-95

+33.5

over 17under 15avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Virginia Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Richmond 0, Virginia Tech 4, even 1

RichmondBetterVirginia Tech

G D. Saran TR11.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 52

VTSmall

G E. Copeland TR14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 67

G A. Argabright10.8 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 87

Even

G B. Hammond13.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 3.2 ast Score 89

G D. Stewart TR6.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 44

VTSmall

G I. Elohim TR12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71

F J. Kaiser TR9.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 60

VTSmall

G T. Johnson8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 77

C A. Dorries TR16.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 62

VTSmall

F A. Hansberry14.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92

RichmondBetterVirginia Tech

RICH offense113th of 366 · -2.0

Even

VT defense72nd of 366 · +0.8

RICH defense105th of 366 · -1.0

Even

VT offense68th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

VTBig

Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

VTSmall

Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

VTSmall

Bench+1.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestRICH betterVT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Richmond

Guards

D. Saran30 min · TRA. Argabright24 minD. Stewart23 min · TRC. Tanner18 minW. Harper11 minK. Mooney5 min

Forwards

J. Kaiser29 min · TRA. Ball21 min · TRJ. McCaffery10 min · TRC. CookNewD. CaldwellNew

Centers

A. Dorries33 min · TRD. HomenickNew

Virginia Tech

Guards

E. Copeland32 min · TRB. Hammond32 minI. Elohim29 min · TRT. Johnson26 minJ. Curry24 min · TRB. Johnson21 min · TR

Forwards

A. Hansberry31 minM. Heide19 min · TRK. Atak14 min · TRS. Jones7 min

Centers

M. Sagnia12 min · TRS. DavisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RICH76.5 #132

VT78.8 #85

Points per possession

RICH1.11 #119

VT1.13 #89

Pace (possessions)

RICH68.8 #194

VT69.8 #127

Shooting

Effective FG%

RICH52.7 #115

VT52.2 #134

3-point %

RICH37.1 #28

VT35.5 #88

3-point attempt rate

RICH42.6 #126

VT39.7 #179

Free throw rate

RICH36.9 #133

VT34.0 #209

Possessions

Turnover rate

RICH14.3 #32

VT14.9 #60

Offensive rebound rate

RICH25.0 #340

VT31.9 #129

Assists per game

RICH14.0 #145

VT14.4 #122

Defense

Points allowed

RICH74.5 #175

VT74.9 #184

Points allowed per possession

RICH1.09 #183

VT1.07 #141

Opponent effective FG%

RICH52.0 #216

VT50.9 #147

Opponent 3-point %

RICH32.7 #103

VT30.6 #26

Turnovers forced

RICH17.8 #111

VT17.3 #131

Defensive rebound rate

RICH69.0 #200

VT67.4 #284

Steals per game

RICH6.8 #139

VT6.4 #187

Blocks per game

RICH2.3 #323

VT3.2 #190

RICH		VT
Scoring
76.5 #132	Points per game	78.8 #85
1.11 #119	Points per possession	1.13 #89
68.8 #194	Pace (possessions)	69.8 #127
Shooting
52.7 #115	Effective FG%	52.2 #134
37.1 #28	3-point %	35.5 #88
42.6 #126	3-point attempt rate	39.7 #179
36.9 #133	Free throw rate	34.0 #209
Possessions
14.3 #32	Turnover rate	14.9 #60
25.0 #340	Offensive rebound rate	31.9 #129
14.0 #145	Assists per game	14.4 #122
Defense
74.5 #175	Points allowed	74.9 #184
1.09 #183	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #141
52.0 #216	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #147
32.7 #103	Opponent 3-point %	30.6 #26
17.8 #111	Turnovers forced	17.3 #131
69.0 #200	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #284
6.8 #139	Steals per game	6.4 #187
2.3 #323	Blocks per game	3.2 #190

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Richmond

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Loyola Chicago67–75
L@ Duquesne77–79
Lvs Dayton60–65
L@ Loyola Chicago66–69
Wvs St Bonaventure99–94

A week or more of rest.

Virginia Tech

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wake Forest89–95
L@ Virginia72–76
Wvs Boston College72–63
L@ North Carolina82–89
Wvs Wake Forest82–63

A week or more of rest.

Richmond Spiders at Virginia Tech Hokies

What could decide it: VT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Richmond

Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Richmond

Virginia Tech