Lehigh Mountain Hawks at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETKnott Arena · at Mount St Marys

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lehigh and Mount St Marys
LEH	This season	MSM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSM 71–70 · win probability MSM 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LEH has more of the edges

LEH 5, MSM 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LEH 23.2%, MSM 32.3%. Defensive: LEH 68.5%, MSM 70.9%

LEHBig

MSM offense vs LEH defense

Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 179th, on the model’s ratings

LEHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LEH 100%, MSM 42%. Transfers in: LEH 0, MSM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

LEHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LEH 17.7%, MSM 22.4%. Forced: LEH 16.2%, MSM 15.3%

LEHSmall

Three-pointers

LEH hits 36.1% and allows 32.9%; MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 38.3% and 42.6% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

LEH has played the 218th-hardest schedule, MSM the 291st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MSMSmall

LEH offense vs MSM defense

Offense 257th of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings

LEHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LEH 31.8, MSM 33.3. Allowed: LEH 32.5, MSM 37.3

MSMSmall

Home court

MSM at home. This season: MSM 0-0 at home, LEH 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LEH plays 68.7 a game (197th fastest), MSM 68.0 (231st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LEH 52.9 and allows 50.6; MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSM -0.8	—
Total	—	140.6	—
Projected score	—	LEH 69.9 · MSM 70.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSM -0.3	—
1H total	65.8	—
1H projected score	LEH 32.7 · MSM 33.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LEH WLWWL	19-14	58%	6-9	—
MSM WWLWL	18-13	58%	7-5	—

Venue/role: LEH away; MSM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LEH OUUUU	18-15	55%	16-17
MSM OUUUU	10-21	32%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LEH	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
MSM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lehigh

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs BING	L71–80LO
Nov 27	vs UCSB	L70–72WU
Nov 28	vs PEPP	No recent meeting

Mount St Marys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs WMU	L60–83LU
Nov 24	@ MORG	W74–60WO
Nov 28	vs DREX	L67–75LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lehigh

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

L L L W L L L W L L L L L W W W L W W L W L L W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1458%

W L W W L L W W L L L L L W W W W W W L W L L W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1555%

U U O U O O U O O O U O U U O O O O U U O O O O O U U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOU	L 57-75	+36.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 9	@WVU	L 47-69	+17.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 14	@RUTG	L 72-84	+18.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsSFPA	W 79-62	-10.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsCOLU	L 67-82	+2.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 25	@MRST	L 55-78	+7.5	L −15.5	132.5	O 133
Nov 28	vsUCSB	L 70-72	+10.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsTXST	W 78-74	+6.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 2	@BING	L 71-80	-3.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 151
Dec 6	vsLIU	L 82-87	+1.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 21	@MONM	L 62-76	+9.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 31	vsARMY	L 78-85	-5.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 163
Jan 3	@BUCK	L 65-72	+4.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	vsHC	W 66-58	-2.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 124
Jan 10	@COLG	W 78-77	+11.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@BU	W 93-91	+4.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 184
Jan 17	vsNAVY	L 79-82	+3.5	W +0.5	137.5	O 161
Jan 19	vsL-MD	W 88-81	-3.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsLAF	W 64-59	-2.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 123
Jan 28	@ARMY	L 64-67	-1.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsCOLG	W 77-76	+3.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 4	@L-MD	L 84-89	+2.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 173
Feb 7	@HC	L 67-76	-1.5	L −10.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 11	vsAMER	W 90-82	+1.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	@LAF	W 78-69	+2.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@NAVY	L 49-72	+9.5	L −13.5	139.5	U 121
Feb 22	vsBU	W 70-67	+2.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 25	@AMER	W 78-73	+7.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBUCK	W 89-79	-5.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 5	vsHC	W 69-66	-5.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 8	vsCOLG	W 76-69	+2.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 11	vsBU	W 74-60	+2.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 134
Mar 18	vsPV	L 55-67	-3.5	L −15.5	140.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

+18.5

WVU

L 47-69

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+6.5

SFPA

W 79-62

+6.5

COLU

L 67-82

−12.5

MRST

L 55-78

−15.5

UCSB

L 70-72

+8.5

TXST

W 78-74

+10.5

BING

L 71-80

−12.5

LIU

L 82-87

−3.5

MONM

L 62-76

−4.5

ARMY

L 78-85

−12.5

BUCK

L 65-72

−2.5

W 66-58

+5.5

COLG

W 78-77

+12.5

W 93-91

+6.5

NAVY

L 79-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 88-81

+3.5

LAF

W 64-59

+2.5

ARMY

L 64-67

−4.5

COLG

W 77-76

+4.5

L-MD

L 84-89

−2.5

L 67-76

−10.5

AMER

W 90-82

+9.5

LAF

W 78-69

+11.5

NAVY

L 49-72

−13.5

W 70-67

+5.5

AMER

W 78-73

+12.5

BUCK

W 89-79

+4.5

W 69-66

−2.5

COLG

W 76-69

+9.5

W 74-60

+16.5

L 55-67

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

−4.5

WVU

L 47-69

−23.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+19.5

SFPA

W 79-62

−10.5

COLU

L 67-82

+5.5

MRST

L 55-78

+0.5

UCSB

L 70-72

−4.5

TXST

W 78-74

+16.5

BING

L 71-80

+11.5

LIU

L 82-87

+26.5

MONM

L 62-76

−5.5

ARMY

L 78-85

+16.5

BUCK

L 65-72

−0.5

W 66-58

−13.5

COLG

W 78-77

+12.5

W 93-91

+39.5

NAVY

L 79-82

+23.5

L-MD

W 88-81

+19.5

LAF

W 64-59

−20.5

ARMY

L 64-67

−16.5

COLG

W 77-76

+6.5

L-MD

L 84-89

+23.5

L 67-76

+5.5

AMER

W 90-82

+31.5

LAF

W 78-69

+6.5

NAVY

L 49-72

−18.5

W 70-67

−4.5

AMER

W 78-73

+10.5

BUCK

W 89-79

+29.5

W 69-66

−7.5

COLG

W 76-69

−1.5

W 74-60

−4.5

L 55-67

−18.5

over 18under 15avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mount St Marys

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-21

32% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W L W W W L L W L W W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-2132%

U U U U O U O O O U O O U U U U U O U U U U U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 25	@OSU	L 60-113	+30.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 29	vsHOW	W 79-75	-2.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 3	vsSHU	L 80-87	+1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 167
Dec 5	@MRST	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 120
Dec 13	@L-MD	W 81-73	-2.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 19	@DREX	L 67-75	+4.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 29	vsIONA	W 66-59	+2.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 125
Jan 2	@MRMK	L 65-75	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	@QUIN	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 9	vsSPU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 135
Jan 11	vsSIE	L 50-67	+2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 17	@CAN	W 78-68	-3.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 19	@NIA	W 68-58	-3.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 126
Jan 22	vsQUIN	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 24	vsRID	W 71-61	-9.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@SPU	L 58-66	+5.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 124
Feb 1	vsMAN	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	vsMRMK	L 70-87	+2.5	L −14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@IONA	W 83-76	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 159
Feb 13	@RID	W 65-55	-5.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 20	vsNIA	W 76-63	-7.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 139
Feb 22	vsCAN	W 68-47	-7.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	@SHU	L 69-77	+2.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Mar 1	@FAIR	W 69-47	+4.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 116
Mar 7	vsSIE	L 58-63	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

OSU

L 60-113

−22.5

HOW

W 79-75

+1.5

SHU

L 80-87

−5.5

MRST

L 56-64

+0.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+5.5

DREX

L 67-75

−3.5

IONA

W 66-59

+9.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−6.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−3.5

SPU

W 70-65

+6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−14.5

CAN

W 78-68

+6.5

NIA

W 68-58

+6.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−10.5

RID

W 71-61

+0.5

SPU

L 58-66

−2.5

MAN

W 72-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 70-87

−14.5

IONA

W 83-76

+10.5

RID

W 65-55

+4.5

NIA

W 76-63

+5.5

CAN

W 68-47

+13.5

SHU

L 69-77

−5.5

FAIR

W 69-47

+26.5

SIE

L 58-63

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

OSU

L 60-113

+21.5

HOW

W 79-75

+7.5

SHU

L 80-87

+14.5

MRST

L 56-64

−16.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+2.5

DREX

L 67-75

+4.5

IONA

W 66-59

−28.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−1.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−1.5

SPU

W 70-65

−6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−22.5

CAN

W 78-68

+10.5

NIA

W 68-58

−5.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−9.5

RID

W 71-61

−7.5

SPU

L 58-66

−14.5

MAN

W 72-65

−10.5

MRMK

L 70-87

+22.5

IONA

W 83-76

+17.5

RID

W 65-55

−17.5

NIA

W 76-63

+8.5

CAN

W 68-47

−22.5

SHU

L 69-77

−4.5

FAIR

W 69-47

−29.5

SIE

L 58-63

−14.5

over 10under 21avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Lehigh 1, Mount St Marys 1, even 3

LehighBetterMount St Marys

G J. Ingram10.7 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 54

Even

G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55

G C. Thomas5.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2

MSMBig

G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49

G J. Vazquez4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 11

Even

G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2

F E. Benoit10.2 pts · 6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 24

Even

G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13

C H. Alvey15.4 pts · 7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 86

LEHBig

F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43

LehighBetterMount St Marys

LEH offense257th of 366 · -7.9

MSMSmall

MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8

LEH defense179th of 366 · -4.1

LEHBig

MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt-6.9 · 3 players

MSMSmall

Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt+2.3 · 2 players

LEHSmall

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

Bench-7.6 · 4 players

MSMBig

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestLEH betterMSM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lehigh

Guards

J. Ingram36 minC. Thomas23 minJ. Vazquez22 minP. Kramer19 minA. Urosevic19 minC. BurrowsNew

Forwards

E. Benoit29 minJ. Pike12 minA. Addesa8 minR. RudusansNewN. DjanoglyNew

Centers

H. Alvey31 minC. CohenNew

Mount St Marys

Guards

A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR

Forwards

W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LEH71.8 #249

MSM67.9 #315

Points per possession

LEH1.05 #257

MSM1.00 #327

Pace (possessions)

LEH68.7 #197

MSM68.0 #231

Shooting

Effective FG%

LEH52.9 #107

MSM50.6 #208

3-point %

LEH36.1 #56

MSM32.7 #244

3-point attempt rate

LEH38.3 #206

MSM42.6 #125

Free throw rate

LEH31.8 #258

MSM33.3 #230

Possessions

Turnover rate

LEH17.7 #250

MSM22.4 #364

Offensive rebound rate

LEH23.2 #349

MSM32.3 #115

Assists per game

LEH13.9 #153

MSM13.2 #196

Defense

Points allowed

LEH74.4 #171

MSM71.0 #74

Points allowed per possession

LEH1.08 #175

MSM1.05 #84

Opponent effective FG%

LEH50.6 #133

MSM47.2 #23

Opponent 3-point %

LEH32.9 #109

MSM32.3 #81

Turnovers forced

LEH16.2 #212

MSM15.3 #262

Defensive rebound rate

LEH68.5 #226

MSM70.9 #114

Steals per game

LEH6.6 #163

MSM5.8 #261

Blocks per game

LEH3.1 #209

MSM2.9 #248

LEH		MSM
Scoring
71.8 #249	Points per game	67.9 #315
1.05 #257	Points per possession	1.00 #327
68.7 #197	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #231
Shooting
52.9 #107	Effective FG%	50.6 #208
36.1 #56	3-point %	32.7 #244
38.3 #206	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #125
31.8 #258	Free throw rate	33.3 #230
Possessions
17.7 #250	Turnover rate	22.4 #364
23.2 #349	Offensive rebound rate	32.3 #115
13.9 #153	Assists per game	13.2 #196
Defense
74.4 #171	Points allowed	71.0 #74
1.08 #175	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #84
50.6 #133	Opponent effective FG%	47.2 #23
32.9 #109	Opponent 3-point %	32.3 #81
16.2 #212	Turnovers forced	15.3 #262
68.5 #226	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #114
6.6 #163	Steals per game	5.8 #261
3.1 #209	Blocks per game	2.9 #248

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lehigh

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View55–67
Wvs Boston U74–60
Wvs Colgate76–69
Wvs Holy Cross69–66
Wvs Bucknell89–79

A week or more of rest.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena58–63
W@ Fairfield69–47
L@ Sacred Heart69–77
Wvs Canisius68–47
Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Lehigh Mountain Hawks at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

What could decide it: LEH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lehigh

Mount St Marys

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lehigh

Mount St Marys