1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. ETSU @ MRSH
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Marshall Thundering Herd

Cam Henderson Center · at Marshall
#173ETSUETSU
@
#230MRSHMarshall
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ETSUThis seasonMRSH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ETSU 75–74 · win probability ETSU 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

ETSU 5, MRSH 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ETSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ETSU 35.0, MRSH 29.2. Allowed: ETSU 36.4, MRSH 41.1
ETSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ETSU 15.2%, MRSH 16.6%. Forced: ETSU 18.4%, MRSH 16.2%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ETSU plays 67.0 a game (279th fastest), MRSH 70.7 (86th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
ETSU has played the 309th-hardest schedule, MRSH the 234th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ETSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ETSU 28.3%, MRSH 31.9%. Defensive: ETSU 72.1%, MRSH 66.2%
ETSUSmall
MRSH offense vs ETSU defense
Offense 198th of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings
ETSUSmall
ETSU offense vs MRSH defense
Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 277th, on the model’s ratings
MRSHSmall
Home court
MRSH at home. This season: MRSH 0-0 at home, ETSU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%; MRSH hits 36.8% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 37.8% and 44.3% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0; MRSH 54.8 and allows 50.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ETSU 29%, MRSH 27%. Transfers in: ETSU 5, MRSH 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ETSU -1.0—
Total—148.1—
Projected score—ETSU 74.6 · MRSH 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadETSU -0.7—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreETSU 35 · MRSH 34.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: ETSU 1, Marshall 1, even 3
ETSUBetterMarshall
G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29
MRSHSmall
G N. Otshudi14.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 45
G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34
Even
G F. Oshodi TR8.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24
Even
G L. Rasmussen TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 15
G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
Even
G D. Johnson TR2.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 17
F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49
ETSUBig
F E. Harding3.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 11
ETSUBetterMarshall
ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9
Even
MRSH defense277th of 366 · -7.0
ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9
ETSUSmall
MRSH offense198th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players
MRSHSmall
Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
ETSUSmall
Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Even
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestETSU betterMRSH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
ETSU
Guards
B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew
Forwards
J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew
Marshall
Guards
N. Otshudi32 minF. Oshodi20 min · TRL. Rasmussen15 min · TRD. Johnson15 min · TRB. Slay8 minE. Manyuon2 min · TR
Forwards
E. Harding14 minC. Langdon3 min · TRV. Kuridza2 min · TRB. DjigoNew
Centers
K. Maker6 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ETSUMRSH
Scoring
76.8 #121Points per game80.5 #56
1.15 #59Points per possession1.14 #71
67.0 #279Pace (possessions)70.7 #86
Shooting
55.3 #33Effective FG%54.8 #42
34.7 #1323-point %36.8 #34
37.8 #2163-point attempt rate44.3 #82
35.0 #180Free throw rate29.2 #328
Possessions
15.2 #79Turnover rate16.6 #172
28.3 #252Offensive rebound rate31.9 #127
13.9 #154Assists per game16.2 #43
Defense
70.1 #61Points allowed78.9 #292
1.04 #77Points allowed per possession1.11 #253
51.0 #161Opponent effective FG%50.3 #118
32.9 #110Opponent 3-point %33.6 #162
18.4 #79Turnovers forced16.2 #206
72.1 #64Defensive rebound rate66.2 #316
8.6 #16Steals per game6.1 #225
3.3 #180Blocks per game4.8 #23
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman61–76
  • Wvs W Carolina69–67
  • Wvs The Citadel83–76
  • L@ Mercer76–82
  • Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.

Marshall

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern78–82
  • Lvs GA Southern82–99
  • Wvs Old Dominion97–88
  • L@ Coastal75–79
  • W@ App State94–93

A week or more of rest.