UC San Diego Tritons at Utah State Aggies: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 12:00 AM ETDee Glen Smith Spectrum · at Utah State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UC San Diego and Utah State
UCSD	This season	USU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USU 81–67 · win probability USU 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USU has more of the edges

UCSD 2, USU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

UCSD has played the 205th-hardest schedule, USU the 83rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

USUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UCSD 16.5%, USU 15.1%. Forced: UCSD 16.8%, USU 20.2%

USUSmall

UCSD offense vs USU defense

Offense 145th of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings

UCSDSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UCSD 68%, USU 26%. Transfers in: UCSD 5, USU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

USUSmall

USU offense vs UCSD defense

Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 110th, on the model’s ratings

USUSmall

Home court

USU at home. This season: USU 0-0 at home, UCSD 0-0 away

UCSDSmall

Three-pointers

UCSD hits 32.8% and allows 31.6%; USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 42.3% and 40.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: UCSD plays 69.7 a game (130th fastest), USU 68.5 (207th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UCSD 52.6 and allows 48.4; USU 56.3 and allows 49.7

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UCSD 31.2, USU 38.8. Allowed: UCSD 29.3, USU 39.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UCSD 26.1%, USU 32.7%. Defensive: UCSD 73.0%, USU 67.2%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	USU -14.5	—
Total	—	147.7	—
Projected score	—	UCSD 66.6 · USU 81.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USU -8.5	—
1H total	69.1	—
1H projected score	UCSD 30.3 · USU 38.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCSD WLWLL	16-16	50%	7-6	—
USU WWWWL	16-19	46%	5-9	—

Venue/role: UCSD away; USU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCSD UUUUU	12-20	38%	21-11
USU UUUOU	19-16	54%	28-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCSD	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
USU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UC San Diego

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs TXSO	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs SEA	L71–84LO
Nov 28	vs LMU	W67–57WU

Utah State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs WEB	W83–73LU
Nov 25	vs SMU	L74–77LO
Nov 26	vs USC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UCSD 1–0 USUUCSD leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UCSD 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2024-25	UCSD 75 @ USU 73	USU -10.5	UCSD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC San Diego

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W W W W W L W W W L L W L W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W W W W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsHCU	W 78-60	-7.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 12	@FRES	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsIDHO	W 75-67	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 142
Nov 24	vsTEM	W 91-76	+1.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 167
Nov 25	vsBRAD	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsTOW	W 87-73	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 2	@NEV	L 70-76	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LBSU	W 80-74	-8.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 13	vsTULN	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 16	@LMU	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUSD	L 80-82	-12.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 1	@CP	L 65-67	-8.5	L −10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	vsHAW	W 83-73	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 8	vsCSUF	L 71-88	-13.5	L −30.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 10	@UCR	W 69-66	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	vsCSUN	L 79-84	-7.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	@CSUB	W 83-62	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@UCD	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsUCI	L 59-61	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsUCSB	L 48-62	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	@CSUN	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	vsLBSU	W 77-74	-10.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 7	@HAW	L 67-72	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsUCD	W 68-51	-5.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsUCR	W 72-66	-11.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 21	@UCI	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	vsCSUB	W 84-72	-14.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsCP	W 80-64	-7.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@CSUF	L 71-75	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@UCSB	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsCP	W 72-69	-4.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 141
Mar 12	vsCSUN	L 70-80	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

+10.5

FRES

W 78-73

+6.5

IDHO

W 75-67

+2.5

TEM

W 91-76

+16.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+11.5

TOW

W 87-73

+12.5

NEV

L 70-76

−0.5

LBSU

W 80-74

−2.5

TULN

W 93-67

+20.5

LMU

W 67-57

+8.5

USD

L 80-82

−14.5

L 65-67

−10.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−30.5

UCR

W 69-66

−7.5

CSUN

L 79-84

−12.5

CSUB

W 83-62

+12.5

UCD

W 80-74

+4.5

UCI

L 59-61

−4.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−18.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−18.5

LBSU

W 77-74

−7.5

HAW

L 67-72

+1.5

UCD

W 68-51

+11.5

UCR

W 72-66

−5.5

UCI

W 71-69

+5.5

CSUB

W 84-72

−2.5

W 80-64

+8.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−6.5

UCSB

W 64-63

+3.5

W 72-69

−1.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

−3.5

FRES

W 78-73

+2.5

IDHO

W 75-67

−6.5

TEM

W 91-76

+18.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+18.5

TOW

W 87-73

+21.5

NEV

L 70-76

−3.5

LBSU

W 80-74

+8.5

TULN

W 93-67

+10.5

LMU

W 67-57

−26.5

USD

L 80-82

+5.5

L 65-67

−42.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−7.5

UCR

W 69-66

−14.5

CSUN

L 79-84

+3.5

CSUB

W 83-62

−2.5

UCD

W 80-74

+1.5

UCI

L 59-61

−26.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−35.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−15.5

LBSU

W 77-74

+6.5

HAW

L 67-72

−10.5

UCD

W 68-51

−31.5

UCR

W 72-66

−9.5

UCI

W 71-69

−3.5

CSUB

W 84-72

+7.5

W 80-64

−20.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−10.5

UCSB

W 64-63

−14.5

W 72-69

−21.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−3.5

over 12under 20avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Utah State

35 games played

Straight up

28-7

80% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-16

54% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-780%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

W L W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L L W L W L L W W L L L L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1654%

U U U O O O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U U O O O U O O U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsVCU	W 80-77	-2.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 12	vsWEB	W 83-73	-22.5	L −12.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 15	vsUTEP	W 75-51	-16.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 126
Nov 21	vsTULN	W 96-75	-8.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsDAV	W 94-60	-9.5	W +24.5	147.5	O 154
Nov 29	vsMTST	W 84-81	-17.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 165
Dec 4	@USF	L 61-74	+2.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 135
Dec 7	@CLT	W 79-53	-10.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 132
Dec 13	vsILST	W 83-78	-8.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 20	vsCSU	W 100-58	-10.5	W +31.5	147.5	O 158
Dec 30	@FRES	W 72-63	-14.5	L −5.5	154.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsSJSU	W 96-78	-22.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	@AF	W 99-62	-22.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 10	@BOIS	W 93-68	-1.5	W +23.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 14	vsNEV	W 71-62	-13.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 17	@GCU	L 74-84	-5.5	L −15.5	150.5	O 158
Jan 20	vsUNLV	L 76-86	-15.5	L −25.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 23	@CSU	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 126
Jan 28	vsWYO	W 94-62	-13.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsSDSU	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 4	@UNM	W 86-66	+1.5	W +21.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 7	@WYO	W 85-83	-9.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 168
Feb 10	vsFRES	W 91-78	-21.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsMEM	W 99-75	-13.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 174
Feb 18	vsBOIS	W 75-56	-9.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 131
Feb 21	@NEV	L 77-80	-5.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 25	@SDSU	L 72-89	-1.5	L −18.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 28	vsGCU	W 74-69	-9.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 3	@UNLV	L 65-92	-7.5	L −34.5	156.5	O 157
Mar 7	vsUNM	W 94-90	-7.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 184
Mar 12	vsUNLV	W 80-60	-8.5	W +11.5	156.5	U 140
Mar 13	vsNEV	W 79-66	-6.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 14	vsSDSU	W 73-62	-2.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 135
Mar 20	vsVILL	W 86-76	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 162
Mar 22	vsARIZ	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VCU

W 80-77

+0.5

WEB

W 83-73

−12.5

UTEP

W 75-51

+7.5

TULN

W 96-75

+12.5

DAV

W 94-60

+24.5

MTST

W 84-81

−14.5

USF

L 61-74

−10.5

CLT

W 79-53

+15.5

ILST

W 83-78

−3.5

CSU

W 100-58

+31.5

FRES

W 72-63

−5.5

SJSU

W 96-78

−4.5

W 99-62

+14.5

BOIS

W 93-68

+23.5

NEV

W 71-62

−4.5

GCU

L 74-84

−15.5

UNLV

L 76-86

−25.5

CSU

W 65-61

−1.5

WYO

W 94-62

+18.5

SDSU

W 71-66

−1.5

UNM

W 86-66

+21.5

WYO

W 85-83

−7.5

FRES

W 91-78

−8.5

MEM

W 99-75

+10.5

BOIS

W 75-56

+9.5

NEV

L 77-80

−8.5

SDSU

L 72-89

−18.5

GCU

W 74-69

−4.5

UNLV

L 65-92

−34.5

UNM

W 94-90

−3.5

UNLV

W 80-60

+11.5

NEV

W 79-66

+6.5

SDSU

W 73-62

+8.5

VILL

W 86-76

+8.5

ARIZ

L 66-78

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VCU

W 80-77

−6.5

WEB

W 83-73

−0.5

UTEP

W 75-51

−23.5

TULN

W 96-75

+19.5

DAV

W 94-60

+6.5

MTST

W 84-81

+16.5

USF

L 61-74

−27.5

CLT

W 79-53

−7.5

ILST

W 83-78

+12.5

CSU

W 100-58

+10.5

FRES

W 72-63

−19.5

SJSU

W 96-78

+22.5

W 99-62

+21.5

BOIS

W 93-68

+11.5

NEV

W 71-62

−14.5

GCU

L 74-84

+7.5

UNLV

L 76-86

+5.5

CSU

W 65-61

−23.5

WYO

W 94-62

+7.5

SDSU

W 71-66

−10.5

UNM

W 86-66

−4.5

WYO

W 85-83

+18.5

FRES

W 91-78

+16.5

MEM

W 99-75

+18.5

BOIS

W 75-56

−20.5

NEV

L 77-80

+10.5

SDSU

L 72-89

+14.5

GCU

W 74-69

−4.5

UNLV

L 65-92

+0.5

UNM

W 94-90

+28.5

UNLV

W 80-60

−16.5

NEV

W 79-66

−0.5

SDSU

W 73-62

−10.5

VILL

W 86-76

+15.5

ARIZ

L 66-78

−9.5

over 19under 16avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah State has the better starters

Position by position: UC San Diego 1, Utah State 2, even 2

UC San DiegoBetterUtah State

G R. Barno TR11.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 5 ast Score 52

Even

G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62

G T. Beattie10.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 71

USUSmall

G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98

G C. Wagner TR12 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 50

Even

G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49

G T. Eaglestaff TR9.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

UCSDBig

G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33

F L. Beath11.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 51

USUBig

F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88

UC San DiegoBetterUtah State

UCSD offense145th of 366 · -4.4

USUSmall

USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4

UCSD defense110th of 366 · -1.3

USUSmall

USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3

Backcourt+0.3 · 4 players

USUSmall

Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

USUSmall

Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

USUBig

Bench+3.8 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUCSD betterUSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UC San Diego

Guards

R. Barno32 min · TRT. Beattie32 minC. Wagner30 min · TRT. Eaglestaff29 min · TRK. Dotson27 min · TRA. Chaikin25 min

Forwards

L. Beath30 minO. Suutela18 min · TRJ. Vance13 minC. Pendleton8 minJ. HolmesNew

Centers

D. Vukicevic7 min

Utah State

Guards

A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew

Forwards

W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew

Centers

S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UCSD74.5 #179

USU81.3 #43

Points per possession

UCSD1.07 #211

USU1.19 #24

Pace (possessions)

UCSD69.7 #130

USU68.5 #207

Shooting

Effective FG%

UCSD52.6 #124

USU56.3 #18

3-point %

UCSD32.8 #241

USU34.3 #155

3-point attempt rate

UCSD42.3 #131

USU40.8 #152

Free throw rate

UCSD31.2 #277

USU38.8 #83

Possessions

Turnover rate

UCSD16.5 #165

USU15.1 #72

Offensive rebound rate

UCSD26.1 #320

USU32.7 #97

Assists per game

UCSD14.9 #94

USU17.1 #21

Defense

Points allowed

UCSD70.5 #63

USU71.2 #78

Points allowed per possession

UCSD1.01 #35

USU1.04 #72

Opponent effective FG%

UCSD48.4 #45

USU49.7 #87

Opponent 3-point %

UCSD31.6 #45

USU34.5 #222

Turnovers forced

UCSD16.8 #165

USU20.2 #18

Defensive rebound rate

UCSD73.0 #38

USU67.2 #290

Steals per game

UCSD7.4 #94

USU8.5 #17

Blocks per game

UCSD2.6 #299

USU2.9 #252

UCSD		USU
Scoring
74.5 #179	Points per game	81.3 #43
1.07 #211	Points per possession	1.19 #24
69.7 #130	Pace (possessions)	68.5 #207
Shooting
52.6 #124	Effective FG%	56.3 #18
32.8 #241	3-point %	34.3 #155
42.3 #131	3-point attempt rate	40.8 #152
31.2 #277	Free throw rate	38.8 #83
Possessions
16.5 #165	Turnover rate	15.1 #72
26.1 #320	Offensive rebound rate	32.7 #97
14.9 #94	Assists per game	17.1 #21
Defense
70.5 #63	Points allowed	71.2 #78
1.01 #35	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #72
48.4 #45	Opponent effective FG%	49.7 #87
31.6 #45	Opponent 3-point %	34.5 #222
16.8 #165	Turnovers forced	20.2 #18
73.0 #38	Defensive rebound rate	67.2 #290
7.4 #94	Steals per game	8.5 #17
2.6 #299	Blocks per game	2.9 #252

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC San Diego

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs CSU Northridge70–80
Wvs Cal Poly72–69
W@ Santa Barbara64–63
L@ Fullerton71–75
Wvs Cal Poly80–64

A week or more of rest.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arizona66–78
Wvs Villanova86–76
Wvs San Diego St73–62
Wvs Nevada79–66
Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.

UC San Diego Tritons at Utah State Aggies

What could decide it: USU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UC San Diego

Utah State

Utah State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UC San Diego

Utah State