Texas Southern Tigers at UC San Diego Tritons: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 16, 10:00 PM ETLionTree Arena · at UC San Diego

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Texas Southern and UC San Diego
TXSO	This season	UCSD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSD 82–64 · win probability UCSD 94%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

TXSO 0, UCSD 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCSDBig

TXSO offense vs UCSD defense

Offense 311th of 366 against a defense 110th, on the model’s ratings

UCSDBig

UCSD offense vs TXSO defense

Offense 145th of 366 against a defense 323rd, on the model’s ratings

UCSDBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TXSO 49.7 and allows 52.5; UCSD 52.6 and allows 48.4

Context

Schedule so far

TXSO has played the 329th-hardest schedule, UCSD the 205th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UCSDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TXSO 18.5%, UCSD 16.5%. Forced: TXSO 16.5%, UCSD 16.8%

UCSDSmall

Three-pointers

TXSO hits 33.1% and allows 34.1%; UCSD hits 32.8% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 32.5% and 42.3% of their shots

UCSDSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TXSO 38.2, UCSD 31.2. Allowed: TXSO 44.0, UCSD 29.3

UCSDSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TXSO 37%, UCSD 68%. Transfers in: TXSO 4, UCSD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UCSDSmall

Home court

UCSD at home. This season: UCSD 0-0 at home, TXSO 0-0 away

UCSDSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TXSO 28.8%, UCSD 26.1%. Defensive: TXSO 68.8%, UCSD 73.0%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: TXSO plays 71.8 a game (40th fastest), UCSD 69.7 (130th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCSD -18.0	—
Total	—	145.3	—
Projected score	—	TXSO 63.6 · UCSD 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCSD -10.6	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	TXSO 28.7 · UCSD 39.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXSO LLWLL	9-19	32%	3-12	—
UCSD WLWLL	16-16	50%	5-8	—

Venue/role: TXSO away; UCSD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXSO UOUUO	14-14	50%	10-18
UCSD UUUUU	12-20	38%	21-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSO	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
UCSD	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ SDSU	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs NOLA	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs TAR	L71–82LO

UC San Diego

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs SEA	L71–84LO
Nov 28	vs LMU	W67–57WU
Dec 3	vs CBU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas Southern

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

9-19

32% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W W L W W L W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-1932%

L L L L W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

U O O U O U U O O O O U U U O O O O U U O U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GONZ	L 43-98	+29.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 6	@TA&M	L 70-104	+29.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsSAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 15	@TXST	L 67-77	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 20	@VAN	L 74-109	+36.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 183
Dec 6	vsSHSU	L 70-82	+7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 152
Dec 14	@MINN	L 53-89	+21.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 17	@NCSU	L 72-108	+34.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 180
Dec 22	vsACU	L 68-75	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 3	@SOU	L 73-84	+6.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 5	@GRAM	L 67-84	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 10	vsUAPB	L 66-74	-1.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 12	vsMVSU	W 84-51	-12.5	W +20.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 17	@ALCN	W 72-71	-1.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 143
Jan 19	@JKST	L 89-94	+2.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	vsAAMU	W 89-74	+1.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	vsALST	W 96-64	-2.5	W +29.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 31	@PV	L 78-85	-1.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 163
Feb 7	@FAMU	W 62-57	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 119
Feb 9	@BCU	L 69-79	+7.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 148
Feb 14	vsGRAM	W 82-79	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 161
Feb 16	vsSOU	W 74-73	+4.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 147
Feb 19	@UAPB	W 83-64	+1.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 147
Feb 21	@MVSU	L 71-72	-11.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 26	vsALCN	W 92-87	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 179
Feb 28	vsJKST	W 82-57	-6.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 5	vsPV	L 59-70	-1.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 129
Mar 12	vsAAMU	L 74-85	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−25.5

TA&M

L 70-104

−4.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

TXST

L 67-77

−5.5

VAN

L 74-109

+1.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−4.5

MINN

L 53-89

−14.5

NCSU

L 72-108

−1.5

ACU

L 68-75

−2.5

SOU

L 73-84

−4.5

GRAM

L 67-84

−11.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−9.5

MVSU

W 84-51

+20.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−0.5

JKST

L 89-94

−2.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+16.5

ALST

W 96-64

+29.5

L 78-85

−8.5

FAMU

W 62-57

+6.5

BCU

L 69-79

−2.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+1.5

SOU

W 74-73

+5.5

UAPB

W 83-64

+20.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−12.5

ALCN

W 92-87

−0.5

JKST

W 82-57

+18.5

L 59-70

−12.5

AAMU

L 74-85

−9.5

covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−16.5

TA&M

L 70-104

+12.5

SAM

L 90-93

+29.5

TXST

L 67-77

−0.5

VAN

L 74-109

+18.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−6.5

MINN

L 53-89

−2.5

NCSU

L 72-108

+27.5

ACU

L 68-75

+4.5

SOU

L 73-84

+3.5

GRAM

L 67-84

+4.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−22.5

MVSU

W 84-51

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−3.5

JKST

L 89-94

+29.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+17.5

ALST

W 96-64

+4.5

L 78-85

+5.5

FAMU

W 62-57

−27.5

BCU

L 69-79

−4.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+21.5

SOU

W 74-73

−4.5

UAPB

W 83-64

−5.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−0.5

ALCN

W 92-87

+33.5

JKST

W 82-57

−13.5

L 59-70

−25.5

AAMU

L 74-85

+16.5

over 14under 14avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC San Diego

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W W W W W L W W W L L W L W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W W W W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsHCU	W 78-60	-7.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 12	@FRES	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsIDHO	W 75-67	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 142
Nov 24	vsTEM	W 91-76	+1.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 167
Nov 25	vsBRAD	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsTOW	W 87-73	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 2	@NEV	L 70-76	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LBSU	W 80-74	-8.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 13	vsTULN	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 16	@LMU	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUSD	L 80-82	-12.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 1	@CP	L 65-67	-8.5	L −10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	vsHAW	W 83-73	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 8	vsCSUF	L 71-88	-13.5	L −30.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 10	@UCR	W 69-66	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	vsCSUN	L 79-84	-7.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	@CSUB	W 83-62	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@UCD	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsUCI	L 59-61	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsUCSB	L 48-62	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	@CSUN	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	vsLBSU	W 77-74	-10.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 7	@HAW	L 67-72	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsUCD	W 68-51	-5.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsUCR	W 72-66	-11.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 21	@UCI	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	vsCSUB	W 84-72	-14.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsCP	W 80-64	-7.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@CSUF	L 71-75	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@UCSB	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsCP	W 72-69	-4.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 141
Mar 12	vsCSUN	L 70-80	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

+10.5

FRES

W 78-73

+6.5

IDHO

W 75-67

+2.5

TEM

W 91-76

+16.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+11.5

TOW

W 87-73

+12.5

NEV

L 70-76

−0.5

LBSU

W 80-74

−2.5

TULN

W 93-67

+20.5

LMU

W 67-57

+8.5

USD

L 80-82

−14.5

L 65-67

−10.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−30.5

UCR

W 69-66

−7.5

CSUN

L 79-84

−12.5

CSUB

W 83-62

+12.5

UCD

W 80-74

+4.5

UCI

L 59-61

−4.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−18.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−18.5

LBSU

W 77-74

−7.5

HAW

L 67-72

+1.5

UCD

W 68-51

+11.5

UCR

W 72-66

−5.5

UCI

W 71-69

+5.5

CSUB

W 84-72

−2.5

W 80-64

+8.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−6.5

UCSB

W 64-63

+3.5

W 72-69

−1.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

−3.5

FRES

W 78-73

+2.5

IDHO

W 75-67

−6.5

TEM

W 91-76

+18.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+18.5

TOW

W 87-73

+21.5

NEV

L 70-76

−3.5

LBSU

W 80-74

+8.5

TULN

W 93-67

+10.5

LMU

W 67-57

−26.5

USD

L 80-82

+5.5

L 65-67

−42.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−7.5

UCR

W 69-66

−14.5

CSUN

L 79-84

+3.5

CSUB

W 83-62

−2.5

UCD

W 80-74

+1.5

UCI

L 59-61

−26.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−35.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−15.5

LBSU

W 77-74

+6.5

HAW

L 67-72

−10.5

UCD

W 68-51

−31.5

UCR

W 72-66

−9.5

UCI

W 71-69

−3.5

CSUB

W 84-72

+7.5

W 80-64

−20.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−10.5

UCSB

W 64-63

−14.5

W 72-69

−21.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−3.5

over 12under 20avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC San Diego has the better starters

Position by position: Texas Southern 0, UC San Diego 3, even 2

Texas SouthernBetterUC San Diego

G K. Bilal TR5.6 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 23

UCSDSmall

G R. Barno TR11.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 5 ast Score 52

G C. Patterson6.4 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Beattie10.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 71

G B. Vungo TR3.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Wagner TR12 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 50

F A. Andrews2.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 7

UCSDBig

G T. Eaglestaff TR9.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

C J. Gorecki2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5

UCSDBig

F L. Beath11.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 51

Texas SouthernBetterUC San Diego

TXSO offense311th of 366 · -9.7

UCSDBig

UCSD defense110th of 366 · -1.3

TXSO defense323rd of 366 · -8.4

UCSDBig

UCSD offense145th of 366 · -4.4

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

UCSDSmall

Backcourt+0.3 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.1 · 2 players

UCSDBig

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

Bench-4.2 · 5 players

Even

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTXSO betterUCSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Texas Southern

Guards

K. Bilal21 min · TRC. Patterson16 minB. Vungo12 min · TRA. Nedal12 minJ. Hamilton7 minJ. Kimbrough4 min · TR

Forwards

A. Andrews13 minJ. Akpovwa9 minX. Wedlow3 min · TRJ. FarmerNew

Centers

J. Gorecki17 min

UC San Diego

Guards

R. Barno32 min · TRT. Beattie32 minC. Wagner30 min · TRT. Eaglestaff29 min · TRK. Dotson27 min · TRA. Chaikin25 min

Forwards

L. Beath30 minO. Suutela18 min · TRJ. Vance13 minC. Pendleton8 minJ. HolmesNew

Centers

D. Vukicevic7 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TXSO73.9 #204

UCSD74.5 #179

Points per possession

TXSO1.03 #293

UCSD1.07 #211

Pace (possessions)

TXSO71.8 #40

UCSD69.7 #130

Shooting

Effective FG%

TXSO49.7 #251

UCSD52.6 #124

3-point %

TXSO33.1 #224

UCSD32.8 #241

3-point attempt rate

TXSO32.5 #324

UCSD42.3 #131

Free throw rate

TXSO38.2 #96

UCSD31.2 #277

Possessions

Turnover rate

TXSO18.5 #297

UCSD16.5 #165

Offensive rebound rate

TXSO28.8 #237

UCSD26.1 #320

Assists per game

TXSO11.1 #332

UCSD14.9 #94

Defense

Points allowed

TXSO80.0 #318

UCSD70.5 #63

Points allowed per possession

TXSO1.12 #260

UCSD1.01 #35

Opponent effective FG%

TXSO52.5 #240

UCSD48.4 #45

Opponent 3-point %

TXSO34.1 #190

UCSD31.6 #45

Turnovers forced

TXSO16.5 #188

UCSD16.8 #165

Defensive rebound rate

TXSO68.8 #211

UCSD73.0 #38

Steals per game

TXSO6.6 #167

UCSD7.4 #94

Blocks per game

TXSO3.3 #173

UCSD2.6 #299

TXSO		UCSD
Scoring
73.9 #204	Points per game	74.5 #179
1.03 #293	Points per possession	1.07 #211
71.8 #40	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #130
Shooting
49.7 #251	Effective FG%	52.6 #124
33.1 #224	3-point %	32.8 #241
32.5 #324	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #131
38.2 #96	Free throw rate	31.2 #277
Possessions
18.5 #297	Turnover rate	16.5 #165
28.8 #237	Offensive rebound rate	26.1 #320
11.1 #332	Assists per game	14.9 #94
Defense
80.0 #318	Points allowed	70.5 #63
1.12 #260	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #35
52.5 #240	Opponent effective FG%	48.4 #45
34.1 #190	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #45
16.5 #188	Turnovers forced	16.8 #165
68.8 #211	Defensive rebound rate	73.0 #38
6.6 #167	Steals per game	7.4 #94
3.3 #173	Blocks per game	2.6 #299

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas Southern

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama A&M74–85
Lvs Prairie View59–70
Wvs Jackson St82–57
Wvs Alcorn St92–87
L@ Miss Valley St71–72

A week or more of rest.

UC San Diego

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs CSU Northridge70–80
Wvs Cal Poly72–69
W@ Santa Barbara64–63
L@ Fullerton71–75
Wvs Cal Poly80–64

A week or more of rest.

Texas Southern Tigers at UC San Diego Tritons

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas Southern

UC San Diego

UC San Diego has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Texas Southern

UC San Diego