Long Beach State Beach at UCLA Bruins: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 16, 10:00 PM ETPauley Pavilion · at UCLA

#26UCLAUCLA AP #22

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Long Beach St and UCLA
LBSU	This season	UCLA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCLA 87–59 · win probability UCLA 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

LBSU 1, UCLA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCLABig

LBSU offense vs UCLA defense

Offense 285th of 366 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

UCLABig

UCLA offense vs LBSU defense

Offense 47th of 366 against a defense 300th, on the model’s ratings

UCLABig

Three-pointers

LBSU hits 32.7% and allows 34.4%; UCLA hits 37.9% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 34.8% and 35.5% of their shots

UCLABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LBSU 18.0%, UCLA 13.4%. Forced: LBSU 17.5%, UCLA 18.5%

UCLABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LBSU 50.6 and allows 53.7; UCLA 53.4 and allows 50.4

Context

Schedule so far

LBSU has played the 152nd-hardest schedule, UCLA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: LBSU plays 71.7 a game (46th fastest), UCLA 66.5 (297th). Faster games mean more points

UCLASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LBSU 30.7, UCLA 33.1. Allowed: LBSU 42.3, UCLA 34.4

UCLASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LBSU 8%, UCLA 50%. Transfers in: LBSU 5, UCLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UCLASmall

Home court

UCLA at home. This season: UCLA 0-0 at home, LBSU 0-0 away

LBSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LBSU 26.2%, UCLA 31.1%. Defensive: LBSU 72.2%, UCLA 66.7%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCLA -28.4	—
Total	—	146.2	—
Projected score	—	LBSU 58.9 · UCLA 87.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCLA -16.7	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	LBSU 25.8 · UCLA 42.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LBSU WLLLW	16-14	53%	8-8	—
UCLA WWWLL	17-19	47%	10-8	—

Venue/role: LBSU away; UCLA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LBSU UOOUO	20-10	67%	8-22
UCLA UOUUU	17-19	47%	24-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LBSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UCLA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Long Beach St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	@ FIU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs ARST	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs SUU	No recent meeting

UCLA

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs CSUF	W80–47WU
Nov 22	vs DEL	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs SMC	W72–56WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LBSU 0–3 UCLAUCLA leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · UCLA has won the last 3 meetings · LBSU 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2022-23	LBSU 69 @ UCLA 93	UCLA -19.5	UCLA W
Jan 6, 2021-22	LBSU 78 @ UCLA 96	UCLA -26	LBSU W
Nov 15, 2021-22	LBSU 79 @ UCLA 100	UCLA -26.5	LBSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Long Beach St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-10

67% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L W W L L W W W W L W W W L W W L W L W W L L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1067%

U O U O O O O O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O O U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SDSU	L 45-77	+25.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 8	@FRES	L 62-82	+6.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	@PAC	L 66-69	+12.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 16	vsILST	L 80-82	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsMTST	L 72-78	+3.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 150
Nov 26	@PORT	L 73-93	+5.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 166
Nov 30	vsUSD	W 76-72	+2.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 148
Dec 4	@UCSB	L 77-84	+13.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsUCSD	L 74-80	+8.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 9	@SJSU	L 83-89	+7.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 18	vsPEPP	W 81-78	-4.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 21	@ISU	L 60-91	+37.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 151
Jan 3	vsCP	W 74-66	-2.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 8	@UCI	L 64-74	+10.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 10	vsCSUB	W 81-75	-6.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsUCR	W 88-73	-5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 17	@CSUN	W 87-80	+7.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 22	@CSUF	L 61-71	+3.5	L −6.5	160.5	U 132
Jan 24	vsUCSB	L 71-74	+4.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 29	@UCR	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsHAW	L 82-89	+8.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 171
Feb 5	@UCSD	L 74-77	+10.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 12	vsCSUF	L 82-86	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 14	@UCD	L 54-71	+4.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 19	vsUCI	L 58-69	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsCSUN	L 76-78	+2.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	@CP	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 28	@CSUB	W 88-87	-3.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 175
Mar 5	vsUCD	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Mar 7	@HAW	W 84-75	+14.5	W +23.5	150.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−6.5

FRES

L 62-82

−13.5

PAC

L 66-69

+9.5

ILST

L 80-82

+6.5

MTST

L 72-78

−2.5

PORT

L 73-93

−14.5

USD

W 76-72

+6.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+6.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+2.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+1.5

PEPP

W 81-78

−1.5

ISU

L 60-91

+6.5

W 74-66

+5.5

UCI

L 64-74

+0.5

CSUB

W 81-75

−0.5

UCR

W 88-73

+9.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+14.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−6.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+1.5

UCR

L 61-71

−11.5

HAW

L 82-89

+1.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+7.5

CSUF

L 82-86

−6.5

UCD

L 54-71

−12.5

UCI

L 58-69

−5.5

CSUN

L 76-78

+0.5

L 92-102

−4.5

CSUB

W 88-87

−2.5

UCD

L 70-76

−4.5

HAW

W 84-75

+23.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−13.5

FRES

L 62-82

+1.5

PAC

L 66-69

−6.5

ILST

L 80-82

+20.5

MTST

L 72-78

+9.5

PORT

L 73-93

+17.5

USD

W 76-72

+0.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+19.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+8.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+30.5

PEPP

W 81-78

+17.5

ISU

L 60-91

+1.5

W 74-66

−22.5

UCI

L 64-74

−4.5

CSUB

W 81-75

+13.5

UCR

W 88-73

+19.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+8.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−28.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+0.5

UCR

L 61-71

−12.5

HAW

L 82-89

+26.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+6.5

CSUF

L 82-86

+11.5

UCD

L 54-71

−24.5

UCI

L 58-69

−17.5

CSUN

L 76-78

−3.5

L 92-102

+31.5

CSUB

W 88-87

+22.5

UCD

L 70-76

−3.5

HAW

W 84-75

+8.5

over 20under 10avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCLA

36 games played

Straight up

24-12

67% wins

Against the spread

17-19

47% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-19

47% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1267%

W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1947%

L L L L W W L L W W W L W L L L W L W L W L W L L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1947%

O U U U U O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O O O U O O U O U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsEWU	W 80-74	-29.5	L −23.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsPEPP	W 74-63	-29.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsWGA	W 83-62	-30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsARIZ	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 134
Nov 18	vsSAC	W 79-48	-27.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsPRES	W 86-46	-25.5	W +14.5	131.5	O 132
Nov 25	vsCAL	L 72-80	-7.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 152
Dec 3	@WASH	W 82-80	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 6	vsORE	W 74-63	-8.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsGONZ	L 72-82	+10.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 154
Dec 17	vsASU	W 90-77	-9.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 167
Dec 19	vsCP	W 108-87	-24.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 195
Dec 23	vsUCR	W 97-65	-24.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 3	@IOWA	L 61-74	+6.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 135
Jan 6	@WIS	L 72-80	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 152
Jan 10	vsMD	W 67-55	-13.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 122
Jan 14	@PSU	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 17	@OSU	L 74-86	+4.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 20	vsPUR	W 69-67	+5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsNU	W 71-64	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 135
Jan 28	@ORE	W 73-57	-4.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 130
Jan 31	vsIU	L 97-98	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	vsRUTG	W 98-66	-13.5	W +18.5	142.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsWASH	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 14	@MICH	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Feb 17	@MSU	L 59-82	+8.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsILL	W 95-94	+6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 24	vsUSC	W 81-62	-6.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 143
Feb 28	@MINN	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 3	vsNEB	W 72-52	-1.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 7	@USC	W 89-68	-4.5	W +16.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsRUTG	W 72-59	-10.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 13	vsMSU	W 88-84	+5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 172
Mar 14	vsPUR	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 20	vsUCF	W 75-71	-5.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 22	vsCONN	L 57-73	+5.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

−23.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−18.5

WGA

W 83-62

−9.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−2.5

SAC

W 79-48

+3.5

PRES

W 86-46

+14.5

CAL

L 72-80

−15.5

WASH

W 82-80

−0.5

ORE

W 74-63

+2.5

GONZ

L 72-82

+0.5

ASU

W 90-77

+3.5

W 108-87

−3.5

UCR

W 97-65

+7.5

IOWA

L 61-74

−6.5

WIS

L 72-80

−4.5

W 67-55

−1.5

PSU

W 71-60

+6.5

OSU

L 74-86

−7.5

PUR

W 69-67

+7.5

W 71-64

−0.5

ORE

W 73-57

+11.5

L 97-98

−4.5

RUTG

W 98-66

+18.5

WASH

W 77-73

−0.5

MICH

L 56-86

−14.5

MSU

L 59-82

−14.5

ILL

W 95-94

+7.5

USC

W 81-62

+12.5

MINN

L 73-78

−6.5

NEB

W 72-52

+18.5

USC

W 89-68

+16.5

RUTG

W 72-59

+2.5

MSU

W 88-84

+9.5

PUR

L 66-73

+0.5

UCF

W 75-71

−1.5

CONN

L 57-73

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 19avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

+4.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−15.5

WGA

W 83-62

−1.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−19.5

SAC

W 79-48

−19.5

PRES

W 86-46

+0.5

CAL

L 72-80

+8.5

WASH

W 82-80

+20.5

ORE

W 74-63

−9.5

GONZ

L 72-82

+6.5

ASU

W 90-77

+24.5

W 108-87

+33.5

UCR

W 97-65

+13.5

IOWA

L 61-74

−5.5

WIS

L 72-80

−0.5

W 67-55

−25.5

PSU

W 71-60

−17.5

OSU

L 74-86

+13.5

PUR

W 69-67

−11.5

W 71-64

−8.5

ORE

W 73-57

−6.5

L 97-98

+50.5

RUTG

W 98-66

+21.5

WASH

W 77-73

+5.5

MICH

L 56-86

−14.5

MSU

L 59-82

+1.5

ILL

W 95-94

+42.5

USC

W 81-62

−7.5

MINN

L 73-78

+14.5

NEB

W 72-52

−20.5

USC

W 89-68

+5.5

RUTG

W 72-59

−10.5

MSU

W 88-84

+30.5

PUR

L 66-73

−4.5

UCF

W 75-71

−5.5

CONN

L 57-73

−5.5

over 17under 19avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UCLA has the better starters

Position by position: Long Beach St 0, UCLA 4, even 1

Long Beach StBetterUCLA

G J. Payne TR6.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 40

UCLASmall

G J. Petty TR9.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 70

G Y. Sissoko TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 32

UCLABig

G T. Perry12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93

G C. Jones3.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F E. Dailey11.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 88

F G. Brcic TR4.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 39

UCLASmall

F S. Macura TR5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71

C N. Amenhauser TR5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 57

UCLASmall

C X. Booker7.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

Long Beach StBetterUCLA

LBSU offense285th of 366 · -8.8

UCLABig

UCLA defense14th of 366 · +6.4

LBSU defense300th of 366 · -7.7

UCLABig

UCLA offense47th of 366 · +3.8

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

UCLABig

Backcourt+3.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players

UCLABig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-1.9 · 2 players

UCLASmall

Bench+0.2 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestLBSU betterUCLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Long Beach St

Guards

J. Payne22 min · TRY. Sissoko11 min · TRC. Jones10 minJ. TenganNewJ. GrayNewM. AdamsNew

Forwards

G. Brcic17 min · TRK. Smith8 min · TRJ. Chaikovsky6 minB. WrightNewH. LauNewM. VanlaninghamNew

Centers

N. Amenhauser12 min · TR

UCLA

Guards

J. Petty30 min · TRT. Perry30 minA. Robinson18 min · TRE. Freeny11 minM. AlstonNewJ. HouegbanNew

Forwards

E. Dailey28 minS. Macura19 min · TRB. Williams12 minJ. PhilonNewN. KusturicaNewG. GrinvaldsNew

Centers

X. Booker20 minF. Jovic18 min · TRJ. FloydNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LBSU73.2 #219

UCLA77.0 #115

Points per possession

LBSU1.02 #303

UCLA1.16 #48

Pace (possessions)

LBSU71.7 #46

UCLA66.5 #297

Shooting

Effective FG%

LBSU50.6 #207

UCLA53.4 #85

3-point %

LBSU32.7 #245

UCLA37.9 #19

3-point attempt rate

LBSU34.8 #280

UCLA35.5 #259

Free throw rate

LBSU30.7 #287

UCLA33.1 #237

Possessions

Turnover rate

LBSU18.0 #271

UCLA13.4 #14

Offensive rebound rate

LBSU26.2 #315

UCLA31.1 #162

Assists per game

LBSU12.3 #264

UCLA16.1 #45

Defense

Points allowed

LBSU79.0 #297

UCLA71.1 #75

Points allowed per possession

LBSU1.10 #220

UCLA1.07 #129

Opponent effective FG%

LBSU53.7 #290

UCLA50.4 #120

Opponent 3-point %

LBSU34.4 #212

UCLA32.0 #64

Turnovers forced

LBSU17.5 #119

UCLA18.5 #76

Defensive rebound rate

LBSU72.2 #60

UCLA66.7 #304

Steals per game

LBSU6.5 #173

UCLA6.7 #156

Blocks per game

LBSU2.9 #250

UCLA3.0 #218

LBSU		UCLA
Scoring
73.2 #219	Points per game	77.0 #115
1.02 #303	Points per possession	1.16 #48
71.7 #46	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #297
Shooting
50.6 #207	Effective FG%	53.4 #85
32.7 #245	3-point %	37.9 #19
34.8 #280	3-point attempt rate	35.5 #259
30.7 #287	Free throw rate	33.1 #237
Possessions
18.0 #271	Turnover rate	13.4 #14
26.2 #315	Offensive rebound rate	31.1 #162
12.3 #264	Assists per game	16.1 #45
Defense
79.0 #297	Points allowed	71.1 #75
1.10 #220	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #129
53.7 #290	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #120
34.4 #212	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #64
17.5 #119	Turnovers forced	18.5 #76
72.2 #60	Defensive rebound rate	66.7 #304
6.5 #173	Steals per game	6.7 #156
2.9 #250	Blocks per game	3.0 #218

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Long Beach St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ Hawai'i84–75
Lvs UC Davis70–76
W@ Bakersfield88–87
L@ Cal Poly92–102
Lvs CSU Northridge76–78

A week or more of rest.

UCLA

24-12 in 2025-26 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn57–73
Wvs UCF75–71
Lvs Purdue66–73
Wvs Michigan St88–84
Wvs Rutgers72–59

A week or more of rest.

Long Beach State Beach at UCLA Bruins

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Long Beach St

UCLA

UCLA has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Long Beach St

UCLA