1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 16
  3. ETAM @ ORST
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 16

East Texas A&M Lions at Oregon State Beavers

Gill Coliseum · at Oregon St
#342ETAMEast Texas A&M
@
#99ORSTOregon St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ETAMThis seasonORST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORST 83–63 · win probability ORST 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

ETAM 0, ORST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ORSTBig
ETAM offense vs ORST defense
Offense 344th of 366 against a defense 109th, on the model’s ratings
ORSTBig
ORST offense vs ETAM defense
Offense 95th of 366 against a defense 317th, on the model’s ratings
ORSTBig
Three-pointers
ETAM hits 31.3% and allows 37.3%; ORST hits 35.0% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 46.2% and 44.3% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
ETAM has played the 265th-hardest schedule, ORST the 120th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ORSTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ETAM 32.0, ORST 43.1. Allowed: ETAM 34.5, ORST 35.1
ORSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ETAM 49.2 and allows 52.9; ORST 50.5 and allows 50.3
ORSTSmall
Home court
ORST at home. This season: ORST 0-0 at home, ETAM 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: ETAM plays 68.5 a game (203rd fastest), ORST 67.2 (272nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ETAM 25.7%, ORST 26.8%. Defensive: ETAM 67.2%, ORST 67.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ETAM 7%, ORST 17%. Transfers in: ETAM 2, ORST 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ETAM 19.2%, ORST 17.7%. Forced: ETAM 17.0%, ORST 15.3%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ORST -20.2—
Total—146.5—
Projected score—ETAM 63.1 · ORST 83.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadORST -11.9—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreETAM 28.3 · ORST 40.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oregon St has the better starters

Position by position: East Texas A&M 0, Oregon St 1, even 4
East Texas A&MBetterOregon St
G A. Dodd TR14.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 82
Even
G J. Lake13.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.2 ast Score 87
G E. Phelps1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 1 ast Score 0
ORSTBig
G D. Freitag TR20 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 93
G K. Tolbert NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G L. Smiley TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52
F J. Ford TR3.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Rasmussen TR13 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 43
F B. Aldridge NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F D. Gory TR13.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 80
East Texas A&MBetterOregon St
ETAM offense344th of 366 · -11.8
ORSTBig
ORST defense109th of 366 · -1.1
ETAM defense317th of 366 · -8.2
ORSTBig
ORST offense95th of 366 · -0.7
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
ORSTBig
Backcourt+5.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
ORSTSmall
Frontcourt+1.1 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestETAM betterORST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
East Texas A&M
Guards
A. Dodd32 min · TRE. Phelps15 minK. TolbertNewC. AdlamNewK. RobinsonNewG. SkorjancNew
Forwards
J. Ford10 min · TRB. AldridgeNewY. VidalNewM. DiakiteNewC. DinuNewM. CarrioNew
Oregon St
Guards
J. Lake34 minD. Freitag34 min · TRL. Smiley21 min · TRC. Johnson16 min · TRS. Blakely Drummond1 min · TRJ. LakeNew
Forwards
J. Rasmussen32 min · TRD. Gory30 min · TRP. Pinnis4 min · TRK. TreacherNew
Centers
D. Evans9 min · TRX. Staton5 min · TRY. AklogNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ETAMORST
Scoring
67.1 #331Points per game71.1 #264
0.98 #342Points per possession1.06 #232
68.5 #203Pace (possessions)67.2 #272
Shooting
49.2 #282Effective FG%50.5 #216
31.3 #3133-point %35.0 #115
46.2 #433-point attempt rate44.3 #84
32.0 #257Free throw rate43.1 #20
Possessions
19.2 #330Turnover rate17.7 #254
25.7 #328Offensive rebound rate26.8 #303
14.6 #109Assists per game13.8 #159
Defense
76.0 #218Points allowed74.2 #159
1.11 #240Points allowed per possession1.10 #223
52.9 #261Opponent effective FG%50.3 #119
37.3 #347Opponent 3-point %32.9 #116
17.0 #156Turnovers forced15.3 #264
67.2 #288Defensive rebound rate67.9 #265
6.7 #150Steals per game5.5 #293
3.1 #196Blocks per game3.7 #115
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

East Texas A&M

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Texas A&M-CC71–84
  • L@ UT Rio Grande55–63
  • Lvs Hou Christian68–69
  • Lvs Incarnate Word73–82
  • Wvs SE Louisiana70–53

A week or more of rest.

Oregon St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Gonzaga56–65
  • Wvs San Francisco78–77
  • L@ Santa Clara72–93
  • Wvs San Diego92–82
  • Wvs Pepperdine83–73

A week or more of rest.