Oregon State Beavers vs Oregon Ducks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 19, 9:00 PM ETModa Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Oregon St and Oregon
ORST	This season	ORE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORE 77–71 · win probability ORE 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORE has more of the edges

ORST 1, ORE 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ORSTSmall

Three-pointers

ORST hits 35.0% and allows 32.9%; ORE hits 32.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 44.3% and 42.8% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

ORST has played the 120th-hardest schedule, ORE the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ORESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORST 26.8%, ORE 32.3%. Defensive: ORST 67.9%, ORE 67.7%

ORESmall

ORST offense vs ORE defense

Offense 95th of 366 against a defense 39th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORST 43.1, ORE 35.0. Allowed: ORST 35.1, ORE 32.0

Even

ORE offense vs ORST defense

Offense 66th of 366 against a defense 109th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORST 50.5 and allows 50.3; ORE 49.5 and allows 50.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORST 17.7%, ORE 17.6%. Forced: ORST 15.3%, ORE 15.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORST 17%, ORE 23%. Transfers in: ORST 9, ORE 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: ORST plays 67.2 a game (272nd fastest), ORE 66.8 (287th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ORE -6.1	—
Total	—	148.3	—
Projected score	—	ORST 71.1 · ORE 77.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORE -3.5	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	ORST 32.9 · ORE 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ORST WWLWW	16-17	48%	2-3	—
ORE WWLWL	12-20	38%	1-4	—

Venue/role: ORST neutral site; ORE neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OOOOU	19-14	58%	17-16
ORE OUUOU	14-18	44%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
ORE	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oregon St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs TLSA	W73–70WO
Nov 24	vs SF	W78–77WO
Nov 29	vs MILW	No recent meeting

Oregon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs SJU	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ UCLA	L57–73LU
Dec 5	vs USC	W71–70WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

ORST 0–9 OREORE leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · ORE has won the last 9 meetings · ORST 7-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 17, 2025-26	ORST 75 @ ORE 87	ORE -13.5	ORST W
Nov 21, 2024-25	ORE 78 @ ORST 75	ORST +6.5	ORST W
Feb 28, 2023-24	ORST 71 @ ORE 78	ORE -13.5	ORST W
Feb 17, 2023-24	ORE 60 @ ORST 58	ORST +7.5	ORST W
Feb 25, 2022-23	ORE 69 @ ORST 67	ORST +8.5	ORST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oregon St

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L L W L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O U O O O U O U O U O O O U U O U O O O U U O U U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNDSU	W 67-65	-9.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 7	vsUIC	W 76-73	-6.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 12	vsUNT	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 17	@ORE	L 75-87	+13.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsEVAN	L 69-73	-6.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsIONA	L 84-91	-3.5	L −10.5	157.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsMASS	L 65-73	-3.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 138
Nov 29	vsCBU	L 69-75	-1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 3	vsUVM	W 80-58	-3.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsSUU	W 81-70	-10.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 13	vsMTST	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	140.5	U 124
Dec 17	vsSHSU	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 21	@ASU	W 78-75	+12.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 28	vsSCU	L 64-102	+7.5	L −30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	vsSF	W 70-62	+4.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	@PAC	L 53-84	+4.5	L −26.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 4	@WSU	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 8	vsSEA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PORT	L 76-82	+2.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 14	vsLMU	W 76-70	+1.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPAC	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 21	@SMC	L 51-81	+19.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 28	@LMU	W 72-69	+5.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	@USD	W 78-76	+3.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 154
Feb 4	vsWSU	W 74-64	+1.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	vsGONZ	L 61-81	+19.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 12	@SF	W 90-63	+8.5	W +35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@SEA	L 50-60	+6.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 110
Feb 21	vsPEPP	W 83-73	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsUSD	W 92-82	-6.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 174
Feb 28	@SCU	L 72-93	+15.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsSF	W 78-77	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 155
Mar 9	vsGONZ	L 56-65	+20.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−7.5

UIC

W 76-73

−3.5

UNT

W 66-64

−1.5

ORE

L 75-87

+1.5

EVAN

L 69-73

−10.5

IONA

L 84-91

−10.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

−7.5

UVM

W 80-58

+18.5

SUU

W 81-70

+0.5

MTST

W 67-57

+8.5

SHSU

L 75-85

−13.5

ASU

W 78-75

+15.5

SCU

L 64-102

−30.5

W 70-62

+12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−26.5

WSU

L 67-81

−7.5

SEA

W 68-55

+17.5

PORT

L 76-82

−3.5

LMU

W 76-70

+7.5

PAC

L 64-81

−18.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

+8.5

USD

W 78-76

+5.5

WSU

W 74-64

+11.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−0.5

W 90-63

+35.5

SEA

L 50-60

−3.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+0.5

USD

W 92-82

+3.5

SCU

L 72-93

−5.5

W 78-77

+4.5

GONZ

L 56-65

+11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−12.5

UIC

W 76-73

+2.5

UNT

W 66-64

−4.5

ORE

L 75-87

+20.5

EVAN

L 69-73

+5.5

IONA

L 84-91

+17.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

+6.5

UVM

W 80-58

−5.5

SUU

W 81-70

+4.5

MTST

W 67-57

−16.5

SHSU

L 75-85

+6.5

ASU

W 78-75

+5.5

SCU

L 64-102

+15.5

W 70-62

−12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−0.5

WSU

L 67-81

+7.5

SEA

W 68-55

−16.5

PORT

L 76-82

+12.5

LMU

W 76-70

+5.5

PAC

L 64-81

+5.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

−0.5

USD

W 78-76

+3.5

WSU

W 74-64

−9.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−7.5

W 90-63

+12.5

SEA

L 50-60

−26.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+7.5

USD

W 92-82

+29.5

SCU

L 72-93

+11.5

W 78-77

+10.5

GONZ

L 56-65

−24.5

over 19under 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W L L L L L W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U U O O O O U O U O O O U U O U U U U U U O U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsSDSU	L 80-97	-2.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 27	vsCREI	L 66-76	+2.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsUSC	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	@UCLA	L 63-74	+8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsUCD	W 104-62	-13.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsPORT	W 94-69	-19.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsGONZ	L 82-91	+12.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	vsOMA	W 80-57	-21.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 2	@MD	W 64-54	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 118
Jan 5	@RUTG	L 85-88	-4.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 173
Jan 8	vsOSU	L 62-72	-1.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 134
Jan 13	@NEB	L 55-90	+10.5	L −24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	vsMICH	L 71-81	+18.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 20	vsMSU	L 52-68	+10.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 120
Jan 25	@WASH	L 57-72	+7.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 129
Jan 28	vsUCLA	L 57-73	+4.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Feb 1	vsIOWA	L 66-84	+9.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 7	@PUR	L 64-68	+19.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 132
Feb 9	@IU	L 74-92	+10.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 14	vsPSU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 17	vsMINN	L 44-61	-3.5	L −20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	@USC	W 71-70	+5.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 25	vsWIS	W 85-71	+5.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 156
Feb 28	@NU	L 62-63	+3.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 3	@ILL	L 54-80	+17.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsWASH	W 85-79	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 164
Mar 10	vsMD	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

SDSU

L 80-97

−19.5

CREI

L 66-76

−7.5

USC

L 77-82

−2.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−2.5

UCD

W 104-62

+28.5

PORT

W 94-69

+5.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+3.5

OMA

W 80-57

+1.5

W 64-54

+8.5

RUTG

L 85-88

−7.5

OSU

L 62-72

−11.5

NEB

L 55-90

−24.5

MICH

L 71-81

+8.5

MSU

L 52-68

−5.5

WASH

L 57-72

−7.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−11.5

IOWA

L 66-84

−8.5

PUR

L 64-68

+15.5

L 74-92

−7.5

PSU

W 83-72

+4.5

MINN

L 44-61

−20.5

USC

W 71-70

+6.5

WIS

W 85-71

+19.5

L 62-63

+2.5

ILL

L 54-80

−8.5

WASH

W 85-79

+7.5

L 60-70

−14.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

SDSU

L 80-97

+35.5

CREI

L 66-76

−8.5

USC

L 77-82

+4.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−9.5

UCD

W 104-62

+19.5

PORT

W 94-69

+8.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+17.5

OMA

W 80-57

−14.5

W 64-54

−28.5

RUTG

L 85-88

+33.5

OSU

L 62-72

−18.5

NEB

L 55-90

−1.5

MICH

L 71-81

−5.5

MSU

L 52-68

−19.5

WASH

L 57-72

−14.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−6.5

IOWA

L 66-84

+16.5

PUR

L 64-68

−12.5

L 74-92

+22.5

PSU

W 83-72

+9.5

MINN

L 44-61

−31.5

USC

W 71-70

−8.5

WIS

W 85-71

+3.5

L 62-63

−16.5

ILL

L 54-80

−13.5

WASH

W 85-79

+18.5

L 60-70

−9.5

over 14under 18avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oregon has the better starters

Position by position: Oregon St 1, Oregon 2, even 2

Oregon StBetterOregon

G J. Lake13.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.2 ast Score 87

Even

G F. Payne TR15.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 88

G D. Freitag TR20 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 93

ORSTSmall

G T. Riley TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 78

G L. Smiley TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52

ORESmall

F A. Meadow TR12 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 77

F J. Rasmussen TR13 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 43

ORESmall

F S. Stewart6.5 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

F D. Gory TR13.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 80

Even

F T. Bol Bowen TR6.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 67

Oregon StBetterOregon

ORST offense95th of 366 · -0.7

ORESmall

ORE defense39th of 366 · +3.0

ORST defense109th of 366 · -1.1

Even

ORE offense66th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt+5.7 · 3 players

ORSTSmall

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.1 · 2 players

ORESmall

Frontcourt+2.6 · 3 players

Bench+1.3 · 5 players

Even

Bench+1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORST betterORE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Oregon St

Guards

J. Lake34 minD. Freitag34 min · TRL. Smiley21 min · TRC. Johnson16 min · TRS. Blakely Drummond1 min · TRJ. LakeNew

Forwards

J. Rasmussen32 min · TRD. Gory30 min · TRP. Pinnis4 min · TRK. TreacherNew

Centers

D. Evans9 min · TRX. Staton5 min · TRY. AklogNew

Oregon

Guards

F. Payne35 min · TRT. Riley32 min · TRJ. Easter18 min · TRW. Lin18 minJ. Johnson12 min · TRR. GonzalesNew

Forwards

A. Meadow30 min · TRS. Stewart23 minT. Bol Bowen19 min · TRP. Compton14 min · TRD. Aristode13 min · TRL. Johnson6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORST71.1 #264

ORE70.8 #267

Points per possession

ORST1.06 #232

ORE1.06 #235

Pace (possessions)

ORST67.2 #272

ORE66.8 #287

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORST50.5 #216

ORE49.5 #271

3-point %

ORST35.0 #115

ORE32.0 #277

3-point attempt rate

ORST44.3 #84

ORE42.8 #121

Free throw rate

ORST43.1 #20

ORE35.0 #181

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORST17.7 #254

ORE17.6 #244

Offensive rebound rate

ORST26.8 #303

ORE32.3 #114

Assists per game

ORST13.8 #159

ORE14.3 #126

Defense

Points allowed

ORST74.2 #159

ORE73.9 #155

Points allowed per possession

ORST1.10 #223

ORE1.11 #249

Opponent effective FG%

ORST50.3 #119

ORE50.9 #148

Opponent 3-point %

ORST32.9 #116

ORE33.4 #144

Turnovers forced

ORST15.3 #264

ORE15.8 #231

Defensive rebound rate

ORST67.9 #265

ORE67.7 #271

Steals per game

ORST5.5 #293

ORE6.1 #231

Blocks per game

ORST3.7 #115

ORE3.9 #79

ORST		ORE
Scoring
71.1 #264	Points per game	70.8 #267
1.06 #232	Points per possession	1.06 #235
67.2 #272	Pace (possessions)	66.8 #287
Shooting
50.5 #216	Effective FG%	49.5 #271
35.0 #115	3-point %	32.0 #277
44.3 #84	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #121
43.1 #20	Free throw rate	35.0 #181
Possessions
17.7 #254	Turnover rate	17.6 #244
26.8 #303	Offensive rebound rate	32.3 #114
13.8 #159	Assists per game	14.3 #126
Defense
74.2 #159	Points allowed	73.9 #155
1.10 #223	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #249
50.3 #119	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #148
32.9 #116	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #144
15.3 #264	Turnovers forced	15.8 #231
67.9 #265	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #271
5.5 #293	Steals per game	6.1 #231
3.7 #115	Blocks per game	3.9 #79

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oregon St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gonzaga56–65
Wvs San Francisco78–77
L@ Santa Clara72–93
Wvs San Diego92–82
Wvs Pepperdine83–73

A week or more of rest.

Oregon

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Maryland60–70
Wvs Washington85–79
L@ Illinois54–80
L@ Northwestern62–63
Wvs Wisconsin85–71

A week or more of rest.

Oregon State Beavers vs Oregon Ducks

What could decide it: ORE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Oregon St

Oregon

Oregon has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Oregon St

Oregon