1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. NKU @ SLU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Northern Kentucky Norse at Saint Louis Billikens

Chaifetz Arena · at Saint Louis
#229NKUN Kentucky
@
#69SLUSaint Louis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NKUThis seasonSLU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SLU 87–68 · win probability SLU 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SLU has more of the edges

NKU 1, SLU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SLUBig
Three-pointers
NKU hits 33.6% and allows 36.6%; SLU hits 39.9% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 44.9% and 45.1% of their shots
SLUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NKU 53.2 and allows 54.2; SLU 59.7 and allows 45.2
Context
Schedule so far
NKU has played the 289th-hardest schedule, SLU the 99th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SLUBig
SLU offense vs NKU defense
Offense 61st of 366 against a defense 249th, on the model’s ratings
SLUBig
NKU offense vs SLU defense
Offense 209th of 366 against a defense 87th, on the model’s ratings
NKUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NKU 16.3%, SLU 17.2%. Forced: NKU 18.6%, SLU 15.9%
SLUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NKU 32.2%, SLU 30.7%. Defensive: NKU 68.4%, SLU 72.8%
SLUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NKU 26%, SLU 63%. Transfers in: NKU 4, SLU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SLUSmall
Home court
SLU at home. This season: SLU 0-0 at home, NKU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NKU 35.9, SLU 33.7. Allowed: NKU 37.2, SLU 37.1
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: NKU plays 71.5 a game (55th fastest), SLU 72.1 (32nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SLU -18.9—
Total—154.9—
Projected score—NKU 68 · SLU 86.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSLU -11.1—
1H total72.4—
1H projected scoreNKU 30.6 · SLU 41.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Saint Louis has the better starters

Position by position: N Kentucky 0, Saint Louis 5, even 0
N KentuckyBetterSaint Louis
G E. Elliott4.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.4 ast Score 3
SLUBig
G Q. Jones9 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 51
G E. Acker TR5.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 38
SLUBig
G T. Green11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 86
F N. Pagotto TR10.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1 ast Score 68
SLUSmall
G A. McCottry10.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 84
F W. Shortt TR6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
SLUSmall
F I. Sharma9.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 67
F D. Rakotonanahary3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25
SLUSmall
F A. Michaeli TR7.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 1 ast Score 58
N KentuckyBetterSaint Louis
NKU offense209th of 366 · -6.3
SLUSmall
SLU defense87th of 366 · -0.1
NKU defense249th of 366 · -6.5
SLUBig
SLU offense61st of 366 · +2.6
Backcourt-5.4 · 2 players
SLUBig
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
SLUBig
Bench+3.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNKU betterSLU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Kentucky
Guards
E. Elliott29 minE. Acker19 min · TRB. Davis-Ray7 min · TRB. Darbyshire6 minJ. ApathjangNewW. FosterNew
Forwards
N. Pagotto27 min · TRW. Shortt20 min · TRD. Rakotonanahary12 minR. Tolliver6 minJ. RuizNewP. Otto MaeNew
Saint Louis
Guards
Q. Jones27 minT. Green24 minA. McCottry23 minK. Thames17 minC. Hutson4 minI. Holmes2 min
Forwards
I. Sharma22 minA. Michaeli18 min · TRE. Strong17 min · TRJ. Kerr6 minS. PearsonNewB. DiakiteNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NKUSLU
Scoring
80.9 #47Points per game86.4 #7
1.13 #81Points per possession1.20 #14
71.5 #55Pace (possessions)72.1 #32
Shooting
53.2 #93Effective FG%59.7 #2
33.6 #1933-point %39.9 #2
44.9 #713-point attempt rate45.1 #64
35.9 #158Free throw rate33.7 #221
Possessions
16.3 #158Turnover rate17.2 #218
32.2 #117Offensive rebound rate30.7 #173
15.5 #65Assists per game18.3 #8
Defense
78.7 #284Points allowed71.6 #94
1.10 #225Points allowed per possession0.99 #21
54.2 #305Opponent effective FG%45.2 #3
36.6 #333Opponent 3-point %30.3 #14
18.6 #66Turnovers forced15.9 #224
68.4 #236Defensive rebound rate72.8 #43
8.3 #25Steals per game7.1 #117
3.5 #134Blocks per game3.4 #168
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Kentucky

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-11 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St90–103
  • Wvs Green Bay96–76
  • W@ Oakland85–84
  • Lvs Wright St91–92
  • W@ Cleveland St81–70

A week or more of rest.

Saint Louis

28-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-4 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan72–95
  • Wvs Georgia102–77
  • Lvs Dayton69–70
  • Wvs G Washington88–81
  • L@ George Mason57–86

A week or more of rest.