1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. CCU @ WIS
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Wisconsin Badgers

Kohl Center · at Wisconsin
#283CCUCoastal
@
#41WISWisconsin
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CCUThis seasonWIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIS 89–62 · win probability WIS 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIS has more of the edges

CCU 0, WIS 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
CCU has played the 301st-hardest schedule, WIS the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WISBig
CCU offense vs WIS defense
Offense 295th of 366 against a defense 40th, on the model’s ratings
WISBig
WIS offense vs CCU defense
Offense 44th of 366 against a defense 246th, on the model’s ratings
WISSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CCU 21%, WIS 54%. Transfers in: CCU 6, WIS 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
WISSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CCU 15.3%, WIS 12.8%. Forced: CCU 12.3%, WIS 14.3%
WISSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CCU 32.3, WIS 31.5. Allowed: CCU 34.9, WIS 29.9
WISSmall
Home court
WIS at home. This season: WIS 0-0 at home, CCU 0-0 away
WISSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CCU 47.9 and allows 46.8; WIS 54.5 and allows 51.4
WISSmall
Three-pointers
CCU hits 33.5% and allows 32.8%; WIS hits 36.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 43.1% and 52.1% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CCU 26.9%, WIS 29.1%. Defensive: CCU 72.4%, WIS 71.8%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: CCU plays 69.9 a game (121st fastest), WIS 70.0 (119th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WIS -27.1—
Total—150.3—
Projected score—CCU 61.6 · WIS 88.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWIS -16.0—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreCCU 27.2 · WIS 43.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Wisconsin has the better starters

Position by position: Coastal 0, Wisconsin 5, even 0
CoastalBetterWisconsin
G T. Thompson3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 15
WISBig
G E. Elmer TR12.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
G D. Washington TR4.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25
WISBig
G T. Autry TR10.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
G T. Perry TR4.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 38
WISBig
G B. Carrington8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
G D. Craig4.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 31
WISBig
F N. Winter13.1 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
F A. Hardaway TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 44
WISBig
F A. Rapp9.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
CoastalBetterWisconsin
CCU offense295th of 366 · -9.1
WISBig
WIS defense40th of 366 · +2.9
CCU defense246th of 366 · -6.5
WISBig
WIS offense44th of 366 · +4.5
Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players
WISBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
WISBig
Frontcourt+6.7 · 2 players
Bench-1.9 · 4 players
Even
Bench-2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCCU betterWIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Coastal
Guards
T. Thompson20 minD. Washington15 min · TRT. Perry13 min · TRD. Craig12 minJ. Cross6 min · TRJ. AlstonNew
Forwards
A. Hardaway20 min · TRD. Green11 minD. Fuquay8 min · TRF. BighamNewJ. BuzzardNew
Centers
C. Middleton10 min · TR
Wisconsin
Guards
E. Elmer31 min · TRT. Autry29 min · TRB. Carrington18 minJ. Janicki17 minH. Jones7 minZ. Kinziger6 min
Forwards
N. Winter31 minA. Rapp23 minV. Onuetu18 min · TRW. Garlock7 minI. RiddleNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CCUWIS
Scoring
71.8 #251Points per game83.0 #28
1.03 #290Points per possession1.18 #27
69.9 #121Pace (possessions)70.0 #119
Shooting
47.9 #314Effective FG%54.5 #52
33.5 #1963-point %36.2 #50
43.1 #1133-point attempt rate52.1 #6
32.3 #254Free throw rate31.5 #267
Possessions
15.3 #84Turnover rate12.8 #4
26.9 #296Offensive rebound rate29.1 #232
9.9 #359Assists per game16.0 #48
Defense
73.5 #143Points allowed76.1 #221
1.05 #88Points allowed per possession1.09 #193
46.8 #18Opponent effective FG%51.4 #178
32.8 #105Opponent 3-point %33.5 #152
12.3 #364Turnovers forced14.3 #327
72.4 #52Defensive rebound rate71.8 #74
4.3 #360Steals per game5.6 #287
3.2 #187Blocks per game3.1 #198
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Coastal

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern72–96
  • W@ James Madison69–68
  • W@ Georgia St76–71
  • Wvs Marshall79–75
  • Lvs James Madison65–67

A week or more of rest.

Wisconsin

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point82–83
  • Lvs Michigan65–68
  • Wvs Illinois91–88
  • Wvs Washington85–82
  • W@ Purdue97–93

A week or more of rest.