Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 9:00 PM ETMcKale Center at ALKEME Arena · at Arizona

#5ARIZArizona AP #5

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Arizona and Arizona
NAU	This season	ARIZ
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARIZ 95–53 · win probability ARIZ 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARIZ has more of the edges

NAU 0, ARIZ 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ARIZBig

NAU offense vs ARIZ defense

Offense 329th of 366 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

ARIZBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NAU 23.3%, ARIZ 38.4%. Defensive: NAU 66.6%, ARIZ 73.1%

ARIZBig

ARIZ offense vs NAU defense

Offense 4th of 366 against a defense 292nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NAU has played the 275th-hardest schedule, ARIZ the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ARIZBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NAU 51.7 and allows 56.9; ARIZ 54.7 and allows 45.3

ARIZBig

Three-pointers

NAU hits 35.6% and allows 38.7%; ARIZ hits 36.6% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 36.6% and 26.4% of their shots

ARIZBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NAU 31.8, ARIZ 43.9. Allowed: NAU 32.7, ARIZ 27.1

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NAU plays 65.5 a game (330th fastest), ARIZ 71.6 (49th). Faster games mean more points

ARIZSmall

Home court

ARIZ at home. This season: ARIZ 0-0 at home, NAU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NAU 40%, ARIZ 29%. Transfers in: NAU 3, ARIZ 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NAU 16.0%, ARIZ 15.1%. Forced: NAU 16.6%, ARIZ 16.2%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ARIZ -41.8	—
Total	—	147.5	—
Projected score	—	NAU 52.8 · ARIZ 94.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARIZ -24.8	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	NAU 22.1 · ARIZ 46.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAU WLLLL	14-15	48%	6-8	—
ARIZ WWWWL	23-16	59%	8-9	—

Venue/role: NAU away; ARIZ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAU OUUUU	11-18	38%	7-22
ARIZ OUOUO	20-19	51%	36-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
ARIZ	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Arizona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ UK	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ CP	W93–87WO
Nov 28	@ CSUB	W74–64WO

Arizona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ AUB	W97–68WO
Nov 18	vs CONN	W71–67WU
Nov 23	vs CSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NAU 0–2 ARIZARIZ leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · ARIZ has won the last 2 meetings · NAU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	NAU 49 @ ARIZ 84	ARIZ -35.5	NAU W
Nov 9, 2021-22	NAU 52 @ ARIZ 81	ARIZ -26.5	ARIZ W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Arizona

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L L W W L L L L W L L L L L L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

W W W W L W L L W L L W L W L W L W W L W L L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-1838%

O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U O O O U O U O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsSEMO	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 3	vsSDST	L 62-75	+2.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	@NDSU	L 68-69	+12.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 9	@ASU	L 48-73	+16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 121
Dec 13	@USD	L 69-78	+4.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 18	vsSUU	W 65-57	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 122
Dec 21	@UIW	L 66-90	+6.5	L −17.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 1	@MONT	L 64-78	+5.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 3	@MTST	L 68-77	+10.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 145
Jan 8	vsWEB	L 65-78	+2.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 143
Jan 10	vsIDST	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SAC	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 152
Jan 17	@PRST	L 52-63	+11.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 115
Jan 19	vsMONT	L 72-98	+3.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsUNCO	W 81-77	+6.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Jan 29	vsEWU	W 92-86	+2.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 178
Jan 31	vsIDHO	L 62-79	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 5	@IDST	W 79-73	+8.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WEB	L 53-72	+7.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 125
Feb 12	vsPRST	L 68-77	+6.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 14	vsSAC	W 79-74	-2.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	@UNCO	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 155
Feb 26	@IDHO	L 58-78	+10.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 28	@EWU	L 57-88	+9.5	L −21.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 2	vsMTST	L 65-76	+5.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsIDST	L 65-73	+4.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

SEMO

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

L 62-75

−10.5

NDSU

L 68-69

+11.5

ASU

L 48-73

−8.5

USD

L 69-78

−4.5

SUU

W 65-57

+2.5

UIW

L 66-90

−17.5

MONT

L 64-78

−8.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−10.5

IDST

L 79-81

+2.5

SAC

L 69-83

−12.5

PRST

L 52-63

+0.5

MONT

L 72-98

−22.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+10.5

EWU

W 92-86

+8.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−11.5

IDST

W 79-73

+14.5

WEB

L 53-72

−11.5

PRST

L 68-77

−2.5

SAC

W 79-74

+2.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+12.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−21.5

MTST

L 65-76

−5.5

IDST

L 65-73

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

SEMO

W 79-72

−2.5

SDST

L 62-75

−11.5

NDSU

L 68-69

−10.5

ASU

L 48-73

−33.5

USD

L 69-78

−2.5

SUU

W 65-57

−28.5

UIW

L 66-90

+15.5

MONT

L 64-78

−7.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−6.5

IDST

L 79-81

+20.5

SAC

L 69-83

−1.5

PRST

L 52-63

−25.5

MONT

L 72-98

+23.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+7.5

EWU

W 92-86

+32.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−5.5

IDST

W 79-73

+10.5

WEB

L 53-72

−25.5

PRST

L 68-77

+8.5

SAC

W 79-74

−1.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+3.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−1.5

MTST

L 65-76

−1.5

IDST

L 65-73

−4.5

over 11under 18avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arizona

39 games played

Straight up

36-3

92% wins

Against the spread

23-16

59% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-19

51% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

36-392%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

23-1659%

W L L W W L W W W L W L L W W W L L W W W L W L L L W L W W L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1951%

O U U U U O O O U O U O O O O O O U U U O U U O U U U O U U O U O O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFLA	W 93-87	+3.5	W +9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUTU	W 93-67	-33.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 11	vsNAU	W 84-49	-35.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 14	vsUCLA	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 134
Nov 19	@CONN	W 71-67	+4.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsDEN	W 103-73	-32.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsNORF	W 98-61	-35.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsAUB	W 97-68	-11.5	W +17.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 13	vsALA	W 96-75	-2.5	W +18.5	178.5	U 171
Dec 16	vsACU	W 96-62	-34.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 20	vsSDSU	W 68-45	-13.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 113
Dec 22	vsBCU	W 107-71	-39.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 178
Dec 29	vsSDST	W 99-71	-31.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 170
Jan 3	@UTAH	W 97-78	-17.5	W +1.5	162.5	O 175
Jan 7	vsKSU	W 101-76	-17.5	W +7.5	171.5	O 177
Jan 10	@TCU	W 86-73	-7.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 159
Jan 14	vsASU	W 89-82	-21.5	L −14.5	167.5	O 171
Jan 17	@UCF	W 84-77	-9.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 161
Jan 21	vsCIN	W 77-51	-13.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 128
Jan 24	vsWVU	W 88-53	-17.5	W +17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 26	@BYU	W 86-83	-1.5	W +1.5	166.5	O 169
Jan 31	@ASU	W 87-74	-14.5	L −1.5	163.5	U 161
Feb 7	vsOKST	W 84-47	-20.5	W +16.5	168.5	U 131
Feb 9	@KU	L 78-82	-5.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 160
Feb 14	vsTTU	L 75-78	-8.5	L −11.5	156.5	U 153
Feb 18	vsBYU	W 75-68	-11.5	L −4.5	165.5	U 143
Feb 21	@HOU	W 73-66	+6.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 24	@BAY	W 87-80	-7.5	L −0.5	155.5	O 167
Feb 28	vsKU	W 84-61	-9.5	W +13.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 2	vsISU	W 73-57	-7.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 130
Mar 7	@COLO	W 89-79	-13.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 168
Mar 12	vsUCF	W 81-59	-15.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 140
Mar 13	vsISU	W 82-80	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 14	vsHOU	W 79-74	-1.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 153
Mar 20	vsLIU	W 92-58	-30.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 150
Mar 22	vsUSU	W 78-66	-11.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 144
Mar 26	vsARK	W 109-88	-8.5	W +12.5	166.5	O 197
Mar 28	vsPUR	W 79-64	-5.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 143
Apr 4	vsMICH	L 73-91	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FLA

W 93-87

+9.5

UTU

W 93-67

−7.5

NAU

W 84-49

−0.5

UCLA

W 69-65

+2.5

CONN

W 71-67

+8.5

DEN

W 103-73

−2.5

NORF

W 98-61

+1.5

AUB

W 97-68

+17.5

ALA

W 96-75

+18.5

ACU

W 96-62

−0.5

SDSU

W 68-45

+9.5

BCU

W 107-71

−3.5

SDST

W 99-71

−3.5

UTAH

W 97-78

+1.5

KSU

W 101-76

+7.5

TCU

W 86-73

+5.5

ASU

W 89-82

−14.5

UCF

W 84-77

−2.5

CIN

W 77-51

+12.5

WVU

W 88-53

+17.5

BYU

W 86-83

+1.5

ASU

W 87-74

−1.5

OKST

W 84-47

+16.5

L 78-82

−9.5

TTU

L 75-78

−11.5

BYU

W 75-68

−4.5

HOU

W 73-66

+13.5

BAY

W 87-80

−0.5

W 84-61

+13.5

ISU

W 73-57

+8.5

COLO

W 89-79

−3.5

UCF

W 81-59

+6.5

ISU

W 82-80

−1.5

HOU

W 79-74

+3.5

LIU

W 92-58

+3.5

USU

W 78-66

+0.5

ARK

W 109-88

+12.5

PUR

W 79-64

+9.5

MICH

L 73-91

−19.5

covered 23didn’t cover 16avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FLA

W 93-87

+15.5

UTU

W 93-67

−2.5

NAU

W 84-49

−30.5

UCLA

W 69-65

−19.5

CONN

W 71-67

−18.5

DEN

W 103-73

+21.5

NORF

W 98-61

+12.5

AUB

W 97-68

+2.5

ALA

W 96-75

−7.5

ACU

W 96-62

+12.5

SDSU

W 68-45

−40.5

BCU

W 107-71

+23.5

SDST

W 99-71

+10.5

UTAH

W 97-78

+12.5

KSU

W 101-76

+5.5

TCU

W 86-73

+1.5

ASU

W 89-82

+3.5

UCF

W 84-77

−4.5

CIN

W 77-51

−24.5

WVU

W 88-53

−2.5

BYU

W 86-83

+2.5

ASU

W 87-74

−2.5

OKST

W 84-47

−37.5

L 78-82

+7.5

TTU

L 75-78

−3.5

BYU

W 75-68

−22.5

HOU

W 73-66

−3.5

BAY

W 87-80

+11.5

W 84-61

−6.5

ISU

W 73-57

−19.5

COLO

W 89-79

+11.5

UCF

W 81-59

−19.5

ISU

W 82-80

+17.5

HOU

W 79-74

+14.5

LIU

W 92-58

+2.5

USU

W 78-66

−9.5

ARK

W 109-88

+30.5

PUR

W 79-64

−9.5

MICH

L 73-91

+6.5

over 20under 19avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Arizona has the better starters

Position by position: N Arizona 0, Arizona 2, even 3

N ArizonaBetterArizona

G R. Abelman10.9 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 42

Even

G D. Dixon TR6.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 55

G C. Komin8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 50

Even

G J. Mandaquit TR5.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 62

G B. Peterson4.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 7

ARIZBig

F I. Kharchenkov10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83

G M. Majerle TR0.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F R. Godfrey TR12 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 96

F D. Anderson TR1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6

ARIZBig

C M. Krivas10.4 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95

N ArizonaBetterArizona

NAU offense329th of 366 · -10.7

ARIZBig

ARIZ defense7th of 366 · +8.8

NAU defense292nd of 366 · -7.4

ARIZBig

ARIZ offense4th of 366 · +11.0

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

ARIZBig

Backcourt-0.3 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

ARIZBig

Frontcourt+10.8 · 3 players

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.1 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestNAU betterARIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Arizona

Guards

R. Abelman33 minC. Komin27 minB. Peterson20 minM. Majerle5 min · TRC. Bennett3 min · TRJ. Amundsen1 min

Forwards

D. Anderson7 min · TRL. WieskampNewT. GreenNewL. ToukamNewZ. TannerNew

Centers

N. KeutchaNew

Arizona

Guards

D. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Mandaquit20 min · TRA. Arnold2 minJ. Cook1 minB. JamesNewC. HolmesNew

Forwards

I. Kharchenkov28 minR. Godfrey25 min · TRE. Otten15 min · TRU. Jarusevicius11 min · TRM. MawutNewE. AiyamenkhueNew

Centers

M. Krivas25 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NAU68.1 #311

ARIZ86.2 #11

Points per possession

NAU1.04 #271

ARIZ1.21 #11

Pace (possessions)

NAU65.5 #330

ARIZ71.6 #49

Shooting

Effective FG%

NAU51.7 #161

ARIZ54.7 #45

3-point %

NAU35.6 #79

ARIZ36.6 #37

3-point attempt rate

NAU36.6 #236

ARIZ26.4 #363

Free throw rate

NAU31.8 #260

ARIZ43.9 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

NAU16.0 #140

ARIZ15.1 #76

Offensive rebound rate

NAU23.3 #348

ARIZ38.4 #5

Assists per game

NAU12.5 #251

ARIZ16.4 #38

Defense

Points allowed

NAU77.6 #257

ARIZ69.4 #53

Points allowed per possession

NAU1.18 #351

ARIZ0.97 #6

Opponent effective FG%

NAU56.9 #355

ARIZ45.3 #4

Opponent 3-point %

NAU38.7 #362

ARIZ31.4 #42

Turnovers forced

NAU16.6 #181

ARIZ16.2 #209

Defensive rebound rate

NAU66.6 #305

ARIZ73.1 #34

Steals per game

NAU6.3 #194

ARIZ7.4 #95

Blocks per game

NAU2.7 #287

ARIZ4.2 #55

NAU		ARIZ
Scoring
68.1 #311	Points per game	86.2 #11
1.04 #271	Points per possession	1.21 #11
65.5 #330	Pace (possessions)	71.6 #49
Shooting
51.7 #161	Effective FG%	54.7 #45
35.6 #79	3-point %	36.6 #37
36.6 #236	3-point attempt rate	26.4 #363
31.8 #260	Free throw rate	43.9 #11
Possessions
16.0 #140	Turnover rate	15.1 #76
23.3 #348	Offensive rebound rate	38.4 #5
12.5 #251	Assists per game	16.4 #38
Defense
77.6 #257	Points allowed	69.4 #53
1.18 #351	Points allowed per possession	0.97 #6
56.9 #355	Opponent effective FG%	45.3 #4
38.7 #362	Opponent 3-point %	31.4 #42
16.6 #181	Turnovers forced	16.2 #209
66.6 #305	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #34
6.3 #194	Steals per game	7.4 #95
2.7 #287	Blocks per game	4.2 #55

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Arizona

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Idaho St65–73
Lvs Montana St65–76
L@ E Washington57–88
L@ Idaho58–78
L@ N Colorado77–78

A week or more of rest.

Arizona

36-3 in 2025-26 overall · 19-2 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan73–91
Wvs Purdue79–64
Wvs Arkansas109–88
Wvs Utah State78–66
Wvs Long Island92–58

A week or more of rest.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona Wildcats

What could decide it: ARIZ has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Arizona

Arizona

Arizona has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Arizona

Arizona