Neville Arena · at Auburn
#5ARIZArizona AP #5
@
#21AUBAuburn
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Arizona and Auburn
ARIZThis seasonAUB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARIZ 83–76 · win probability ARIZ 73%
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 158.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARIZ has more of the edges

ARIZ 4, AUB 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARIZBig
Three-pointers
ARIZ hits 36.6% and allows 31.4%; AUB hits 34.4% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 26.4% and 40.2% of their shots
ARIZBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARIZ 54.7 and allows 45.3; AUB 53.0 and allows 53.7
ARIZSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARIZ 38.4%, AUB 37.0%. Defensive: ARIZ 73.1%, AUB 69.1%
ARIZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARIZ 43.9, AUB 43.2. Allowed: ARIZ 27.1, AUB 34.3
AUBSmall
Home court
AUB at home. This season: AUB 0-0 at home, ARIZ 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ARIZ plays 71.6 a game (49th fastest), AUB 69.7 (136th). Faster games mean more points
Even
ARIZ offense vs AUB defense
Offense 4th of 366 against a defense 41st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARIZ 15.1%, AUB 14.6%. Forced: ARIZ 16.2%, AUB 16.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARIZ 29%, AUB 38%. Transfers in: ARIZ 5, AUB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
AUB offense vs ARIZ defense
Offense 16th of 366 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ARIZ has played the 11th-hardest schedule, AUB the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARIZ -7.0—
Total—158.5—
Projected score—ARIZ 82.7 · AUB 75.8

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadARIZ -4.3—
1H total74.0—
1H projected scoreARIZ 39.1 · AUB 34.9—

Auburn has the better starters

Position by position: Arizona 1, Auburn 2, even 2
ArizonaBetterAuburn
G D. Dixon TR6.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 55
AUBSmall
G T. Pettiford15.4 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 88
G J. Mandaquit TR5.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 62
AUBSmall
G K. Overton14.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 90
F I. Kharchenkov10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83
Even
G K. King TR7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
F R. Godfrey TR12 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 96
Even
F T. Dowd TR14.5 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 83
C M. Krivas10.4 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95
ARIZSmall
F A. Olsen TR17 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 66
ArizonaBetterAuburn
ARIZ offense4th of 366 · +11.0
Even
AUB defense41st of 366 · +2.8
ARIZ defense7th of 366 · +8.8
Even
AUB offense16th of 366 · +8.7
Backcourt-0.3 · 2 players
AUBBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt+10.8 · 3 players
ARIZBig
Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.1 · 4 players
AUBBig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestARIZ betterAUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arizona
Guards
D. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Mandaquit20 min · TRA. Arnold2 minJ. Cook1 minB. JamesNewC. HolmesNew
Forwards
I. Kharchenkov28 minR. Godfrey25 min · TRE. Otten15 min · TRU. Jarusevicius11 min · TRM. MawutNewE. AiyamenkhueNew
Centers
M. Krivas25 min
Auburn
Guards
T. Pettiford32 minK. Overton32 minK. King19 min · TRB. Muschalek6 minS. Walker5 minD. Cardwell1 min
Forwards
T. Dowd37 min · TRA. Olsen37 min · TRO. Freeman12 min · TRJ. BowmanNew
Centers
B. Oboye18 min · TRN. NgoyNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARIZAUB
Scoring
86.2 #11Points per game83.0 #27
1.21 #11Points per possession1.19 #19
71.6 #49Pace (possessions)69.7 #136
Shooting
54.7 #45Effective FG%53.0 #104
36.6 #373-point %34.4 #147
26.4 #3633-point attempt rate40.2 #166
43.9 #11Free throw rate43.2 #19
Possessions
15.1 #76Turnover rate14.6 #45
38.4 #5Offensive rebound rate37.0 #15
16.4 #38Assists per game13.2 #198
Defense
69.4 #53Points allowed78.8 #287
0.97 #6Points allowed per possession1.13 #281
45.3 #4Opponent effective FG%53.7 #291
31.4 #42Opponent 3-point %36.7 #336
16.2 #209Turnovers forced16.3 #201
73.1 #34Defensive rebound rate69.1 #196
7.4 #95Steals per game7.5 #83
4.2 #55Blocks per game4.1 #63

Arizona

36-3 in 2025-26 overall · 19-2 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan73–91
  • Wvs Purdue79–64
  • Wvs Arkansas109–88
  • Wvs Utah State78–66
  • Wvs Long Island92–58

A week or more of rest.

Auburn

22-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Tulsa92–86
  • Wvs Illinois St88–66
  • Wvs Nevada75–69
  • Wvs Seattle U91–85
  • Wvs South Alabama78–67

A week or more of rest.