West Virginia Mountaineers vs Auburn Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 11:59 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: West Virginia and Auburn
WVU	This season	AUB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AUB 77–73 · win probability AUB 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WVU has more of the edges

WVU 1, AUB 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: WVU plays 65.3 a game (336th fastest), AUB 69.7 (136th). Faster games mean more points

WVUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WVU 51.6 and allows 48.5; AUB 53.0 and allows 53.7

Context

Schedule so far

WVU has played the 62nd-hardest schedule, AUB the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

WVU offense vs AUB defense

Offense 77th of 366 against a defense 41st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

WVU hits 33.0% and allows 34.3%; AUB hits 34.4% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 43.0% and 40.2% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WVU 23%, AUB 38%. Transfers in: WVU 6, AUB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WVU 30.5%, AUB 37.0%. Defensive: WVU 71.4%, AUB 69.1%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WVU 16.8%, AUB 14.6%. Forced: WVU 17.8%, AUB 16.3%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WVU 35.1, AUB 43.2. Allowed: WVU 29.3, AUB 34.3

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

AUB offense vs WVU defense

Offense 16th of 366 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AUB -4.4	—
Total	—	150.3	—
Projected score	—	WVU 72.9 · AUB 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AUB -2.5	—
1H total	70.3	—
1H projected score	WVU 33.9 · AUB 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WVU WLWWW	18-17	51%	5-3	—
AUB LLLWW	16-22	42%	6-4	—

Venue/role: WVU neutral site; AUB neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU UUOOO	13-22	37%	21-14
AUB UOUOO	22-16	58%	22-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
AUB	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

West Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs UNC	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs MERC	W70–38WU
Dec 5	vs VT	No recent meeting

Auburn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs LIP	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ CLEM	No recent meeting
Dec 6	vs EKU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WVU 1–0 AUBWVU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WVU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 28, 2022-23	AUB 77 @ WVU 80	WVU -4.5	AUB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

West Virginia

35 games played

Straight up

21-14

60% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-22

37% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1460%

W W W W W L L W W L W L W L W W L W W L W L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1751%

L L W W L W L W W L W W L L W W L W W L L L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2237%

U U U U O O O U O U O O U U U O U U U U U U U U O U U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsMSM	W 70-54	-19.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 6	vsCAM	W 73-65	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsLEH	W 69-47	-17.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 13	vsPITT	W 71-49	-5.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsLAF	W 81-59	-24.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	vsCLEM	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsXAV	L 68-78	-5.5	L −15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 30	vsMERC	W 70-38	-21.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 3	vsCOPP	W 91-49	-31.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	vsWAKE	L 66-75	-2.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 9	vsLR	W 90-58	-27.5	W +4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsOSU	L 88-89	+3.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 177
Dec 22	vsMVSU	W 86-51	-42.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 2	@ISU	L 59-80	+16.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 139
Jan 6	vsCIN	W 62-60	+1.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsKU	W 86-75	+2.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 13	@HOU	L 48-77	+13.5	L −15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 17	vsCOLO	W 72-61	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 133
Jan 21	@ASU	W 75-63	+1.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 138
Jan 24	@ARIZ	L 53-88	+17.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsKSU	W 59-54	-7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 113
Jan 31	vsBAY	L 53-63	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 116
Feb 5	@CIN	W 59-54	+5.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 113
Feb 8	vsTTU	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 133
Feb 14	@UCF	W 74-67	+3.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 18	vsUTAH	L 56-61	-10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 21	@TCU	L 54-60	+4.5	L −1.5	133.5	U 114
Feb 24	@OKST	L 84-91	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 175
Feb 28	vsBYU	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 150
Mar 3	@KSU	L 63-65	-3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 6	vsUCF	W 77-62	-4.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 139
Mar 11	vsBYU	L 48-68	+3.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsSTAN	W 82-77	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 159
Apr 4	vsCREI	W 87-70	-1.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 157
Apr 5	vsOU	W 89-82	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−3.5

CAM

W 73-65

−7.5

LEH

W 69-47

+4.5

PITT

W 71-49

+16.5

LAF

W 81-59

−2.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+1.5

XAV

L 68-78

−15.5

MERC

W 70-38

+10.5

COPP

W 91-49

+10.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−11.5

W 90-58

+4.5

OSU

L 88-89

+2.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−7.5

ISU

L 59-80

−4.5

CIN

W 62-60

+3.5

W 86-75

+13.5

HOU

L 48-77

−15.5

COLO

W 72-61

+4.5

ASU

W 75-63

+13.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−17.5

KSU

W 59-54

−2.5

BAY

L 53-63

−12.5

CIN

W 59-54

+10.5

TTU

L 63-70

−2.5

UCF

W 74-67

+10.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−15.5

TCU

L 54-60

−1.5

OKST

L 84-91

−5.5

BYU

W 79-71

+10.5

KSU

L 63-65

−5.5

UCF

W 77-62

+10.5

BYU

L 48-68

−16.5

STAN

W 82-77

+2.5

CREI

W 87-70

+15.5

W 89-82

+10.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−12.5

CAM

W 73-65

−0.5

LEH

W 69-47

−23.5

PITT

W 71-49

−14.5

LAF

W 81-59

+4.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+4.5

XAV

L 68-78

+5.5

MERC

W 70-38

−19.5

COPP

W 91-49

+5.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−2.5

W 90-58

+15.5

OSU

L 88-89

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−0.5

ISU

L 59-80

−3.5

CIN

W 62-60

−10.5

W 86-75

+21.5

HOU

L 48-77

−2.5

COLO

W 72-61

−8.5

ASU

W 75-63

−7.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−2.5

KSU

W 59-54

−33.5

BAY

L 53-63

−23.5

CIN

W 59-54

−14.5

TTU

L 63-70

−6.5

UCF

W 74-67

+0.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−16.5

TCU

L 54-60

−19.5

OKST

L 84-91

+30.5

BYU

W 79-71

+8.5

KSU

L 63-65

−15.5

UCF

W 77-62

−3.5

BYU

L 48-68

−25.5

STAN

W 82-77

+23.5

CREI

W 87-70

+19.5

W 89-82

+29.5

over 13under 22avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Auburn

38 games played

Straight up

22-16

58% wins

Against the spread

16-22

42% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-16

58% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1658%

W W W L W W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W L L L L L W L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-2242%

L W W W W W L W W L L L W W L W L L W W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-1658%

O O O O O O O U U O O U U O O U O U U U O U O U U O U O O O O U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBCU	W 95-90	-24.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	vsMRMK	W 95-57	-23.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	vsWOF	W 93-62	-27.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 16	vsHOU	L 72-73	+7.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 19	vsJKST	W 112-66	-30.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsORE	W 84-73	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsMICH	L 72-102	+4.5	L −25.5	163.5	O 174
Nov 26	vsSJU	W 85-74	+4.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 159
Dec 3	vsNCSU	W 83-73	-5.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	@ARIZ	L 68-97	+11.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 13	vsUTC	W 92-78	-19.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsPUR	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 29	vsQUC	W 106-65	-25.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 3	@UGA	L 100-104	+6.5	W +2.5	173.5	O 204
Jan 6	vsTA&M	L 88-90	-6.5	L −8.5	168.5	O 178
Jan 10	vsARK	W 95-73	-2.5	W +19.5	169.5	U 168
Jan 14	@MIZ	L 74-84	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 158
Jan 17	vsSC	W 71-67	-13.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 20	@MISS	W 78-66	-3.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 24	@FLA	W 76-67	+11.5	W +20.5	159.5	U 143
Jan 28	vsTEX	W 88-82	-6.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 170
Jan 31	@TENN	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Feb 7	vsALA	L 92-96	-2.5	L −6.5	175.5	O 188
Feb 10	vsVAN	L 76-84	-3.5	L −11.5	161.5	U 160
Feb 14	@ARK	L 75-88	+7.5	L −5.5	165.5	U 163
Feb 18	@MSST	L 85-91	-5.5	L −11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	vsUK	W 75-74	-3.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 24	@OU	L 79-91	-3.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsMISS	L 79-85	-10.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 164
Mar 3	vsLSU	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 162
Mar 7	@ALA	L 84-96	+5.5	L −6.5	175.5	O 180
Mar 11	vsMSST	W 79-61	-8.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 140
Mar 12	vsTENN	L 62-72	+5.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 134
Mar 17	vsUSA	W 78-67	-18.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 22	vsSEA	W 91-85	-14.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 176
Mar 25	vsNEV	W 75-69	-8.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 144
Apr 2	vsILST	W 88-66	-7.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 154
Apr 5	vsTLSA	W 92-86	-5.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

−19.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+14.5

WOF

W 93-62

+3.5

HOU

L 72-73

+6.5

JKST

W 112-66

+15.5

ORE

W 84-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-102

−25.5

SJU

W 85-74

+15.5

NCSU

W 83-73

+4.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

−17.5

UTC

W 92-78

−5.5

PUR

L 60-88

−20.5

QUC

W 106-65

+15.5

UGA

L 100-104

+2.5

TA&M

L 88-90

−8.5

ARK

W 95-73

+19.5

MIZ

L 74-84

−11.5

W 71-67

−9.5

MISS

W 78-66

+8.5

FLA

W 76-67

+20.5

TEX

W 88-82

−0.5

TENN

L 69-77

−2.5

ALA

L 92-96

−6.5

VAN

L 76-84

−11.5

ARK

L 75-88

−5.5

MSST

L 85-91

−11.5

W 75-74

−2.5

L 79-91

−15.5

MISS

L 79-85

−16.5

LSU

W 88-74

+3.5

ALA

L 84-96

−6.5

MSST

W 79-61

+9.5

TENN

L 62-72

−4.5

USA

W 78-67

−7.5

SEA

W 91-85

−8.5

NEV

W 75-69

−2.5

ILST

W 88-66

+14.5

TLSA

W 92-86

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 22avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

+31.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+3.5

WOF

W 93-62

+2.5

HOU

L 72-73

+4.5

JKST

W 112-66

+21.5

ORE

W 84-73

+1.5

MICH

L 72-102

+10.5

SJU

W 85-74

−7.5

NCSU

W 83-73

−6.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

+2.5

UTC

W 92-78

+19.5

PUR

L 60-88

−4.5

QUC

W 106-65

−0.5

UGA

L 100-104

+30.5

TA&M

L 88-90

+9.5

ARK

W 95-73

−1.5

MIZ

L 74-84

+4.5

W 71-67

−14.5

MISS

W 78-66

−7.5

FLA

W 76-67

−16.5

TEX

W 88-82

+15.5

TENN

L 69-77

−1.5

ALA

L 92-96

+12.5

VAN

L 76-84

−1.5

ARK

L 75-88

−2.5

MSST

L 85-91

+20.5

W 75-74

−4.5

L 79-91

+12.5

MISS

L 79-85

+10.5

LSU

W 88-74

+6.5

ALA

L 84-96

+4.5

MSST

W 79-61

−20.5

TENN

L 62-72

−10.5

USA

W 78-67

−6.5

SEA

W 91-85

+30.5

NEV

W 75-69

−7.5

ILST

W 88-66

+4.5

TLSA

W 92-86

+19.5

over 22under 16avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Auburn has the better starters

Position by position: West Virginia 1, Auburn 2, even 2

West VirginiaBetterAuburn

G F. Bizjack TR17.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 88

Even

G T. Pettiford15.4 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 88

G S. Traore TR9 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 46

AUBBig

G K. Overton14.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 90

G M. Somerville TR8 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54

AUBSmall

G K. King TR7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83

F B. Lorient11.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 91

Even

F T. Dowd TR14.5 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 83

F J. Buchanan TR12.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

WVUSmall

F A. Olsen TR17 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 66

West VirginiaBetterAuburn

WVU offense77th of 366 · +0.9

Even

AUB defense41st of 366 · +2.8

WVU defense19th of 366 · +5.5

Even

AUB offense16th of 366 · +8.7

Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players

AUBBig

Backcourt+6.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+6.2 · 2 players

WVUSmall

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+1.6 · 3 players

AUBSmall

Bench+3.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWVU betterAUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

West Virginia

Guards

F. Bizjack34 min · TRS. Traore29 min · TRM. Somerville26 min · TRJ. Sanon21 min · TRA. Jenkins16 minM. FeenaneNew

Forwards

B. Lorient29 minJ. Buchanan28 min · TRM. OlejaszNew

Centers

M. Sylla21 min · TRA. DioumNewA. SeiniNew

Auburn

Guards

T. Pettiford32 minK. Overton32 minK. King19 min · TRB. Muschalek6 minS. Walker5 minD. Cardwell1 min

Forwards

T. Dowd37 min · TRA. Olsen37 min · TRO. Freeman12 min · TRJ. BowmanNew

Centers

B. Oboye18 min · TRN. NgoyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WVU70.6 #271

AUB83.0 #27

Points per possession

WVU1.08 #183

AUB1.19 #19

Pace (possessions)

WVU65.3 #336

AUB69.7 #136

Shooting

Effective FG%

WVU51.6 #166

AUB53.0 #104

3-point %

WVU33.0 #227

AUB34.4 #147

3-point attempt rate

WVU43.0 #118

AUB40.2 #166

Free throw rate

WVU35.1 #173

AUB43.2 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

WVU16.8 #188

AUB14.6 #45

Offensive rebound rate

WVU30.5 #178

AUB37.0 #15

Assists per game

WVU12.8 #228

AUB13.2 #198

Defense

Points allowed

WVU65.7 #11

AUB78.8 #287

Points allowed per possession

WVU1.01 #34

AUB1.13 #281

Opponent effective FG%

WVU48.5 #50

AUB53.7 #291

Opponent 3-point %

WVU34.3 #201

AUB36.7 #336

Turnovers forced

WVU17.8 #108

AUB16.3 #201

Defensive rebound rate

WVU71.4 #86

AUB69.1 #196

Steals per game

WVU6.3 #195

AUB7.5 #83

Blocks per game

WVU3.1 #204

AUB4.1 #63

WVU		AUB
Scoring
70.6 #271	Points per game	83.0 #27
1.08 #183	Points per possession	1.19 #19
65.3 #336	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #136
Shooting
51.6 #166	Effective FG%	53.0 #104
33.0 #227	3-point %	34.4 #147
43.0 #118	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #166
35.1 #173	Free throw rate	43.2 #19
Possessions
16.8 #188	Turnover rate	14.6 #45
30.5 #178	Offensive rebound rate	37.0 #15
12.8 #228	Assists per game	13.2 #198
Defense
65.7 #11	Points allowed	78.8 #287
1.01 #34	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #281
48.5 #50	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #291
34.3 #201	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #336
17.8 #108	Turnovers forced	16.3 #201
71.4 #86	Defensive rebound rate	69.1 #196
6.3 #195	Steals per game	7.5 #83
3.1 #204	Blocks per game	4.1 #63

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

West Virginia

21-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Oklahoma89–82
Wvs Creighton87–70
Wvs Stanford82–77
Lvs BYU48–68
Wvs UCF77–62

A week or more of rest.

Auburn

22-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Tulsa92–86
Wvs Illinois St88–66
Wvs Nevada75–69
Wvs Seattle U91–85
Wvs South Alabama78–67

A week or more of rest.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Auburn Tigers

What could decide it: WVU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

West Virginia

Auburn

Auburn has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

West Virginia

Auburn