Seattle U Redhawks at California Baptist Lancers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 10:00 PM ETDale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center · at CA Baptist

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Seattle U and CA Baptist
SEA	This season	CBU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SEA 71–68 · win probability SEA 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SEA has more of the edges

SEA 3, CBU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CBUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SEA 23.7%, CBU 37.5%. Defensive: SEA 68.2%, CBU 72.8%

SEABig

CBU offense vs SEA defense

Offense 246th of 366 against a defense 76th, on the model’s ratings

SEABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SEA 16.7%, CBU 18.0%. Forced: SEA 21.2%, CBU 16.9%

Context

Schedule so far

SEA has played the 114th-hardest schedule, CBU the 202nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

SEASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SEA 50%, CBU 18%. Transfers in: SEA 3, CBU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CBUSmall

Home court

CBU at home. This season: CBU 0-0 at home, SEA 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SEA 34.2, CBU 35.9. Allowed: SEA 33.0, CBU 36.6

Even

Three-pointers

SEA hits 33.7% and allows 32.1%; CBU hits 33.4% and allows 29.5%. Threes are 39.4% and 32.0% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SEA plays 69.1 a game (175th fastest), CBU 68.3 (217th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SEA 49.8 and allows 48.4; CBU 48.3 and allows 46.3

Even

SEA offense vs CBU defense

Offense 183rd of 366 against a defense 178th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SEA -3.2	—
Total	—	138.4	—
Projected score	—	SEA 70.8 · CBU 67.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SEA -2.0	—
1H total	64.8	—
1H projected score	SEA 33.4 · CBU 31.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA WLLWW	15-18	45%	5-8	—
CBU WWWWW	20-14	59%	7-8	—

Venue/role: SEA away; CBU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA OUUUO	13-20	39%	19-14
CBU UOOUU	12-22	35%	25-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
CBU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Seattle U

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs UCSD	W84–71WO
Nov 28	vs UCI	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs NORF	No recent meeting

CA Baptist

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs LMU	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs PORT	No recent meeting
Dec 3	@ UCSD	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

SEA 7–2 CBUSEA leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · SEA 6-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 27, 2024-25	CBU 48 @ SEA 72	SEA -6.5	SEA W
Jan 4, 2024-25	SEA 59 @ CBU 61	CBU -3.5	SEA W
Mar 14, 2023-24	CBU 57 vs SEA 81	SEA -7.5	SEA W
Feb 3, 2023-24	SEA 61 @ CBU 60	CBU -2.5	SEA W
Jan 6, 2023-24	CBU 46 @ SEA 48	SEA -6.5	CBU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Seattle U

33 games played

Straight up

19-14

58% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1458%

W L W W W W L W W W W L W L L L W L W L L W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

L L W L W W L L L W L L W W L L W L W L L L L W W W W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

O U O O U U O O O U U U U U O U U U U U U O U O U O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEN	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsCP	L 71-73	-10.5	L −12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	vsEWU	W 94-67	-8.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 15	vsIDST	W 83-74	-11.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 157
Nov 21	@STAN	W 77-69	+10.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 28	vsTXST	W 66-52	-7.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 118
Nov 29	vsUCSB	L 71-74	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 145
Dec 7	vsUTEP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 17	@UCD	W 79-78	-2.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 157
Dec 19	vsWASH	W 70-66	+7.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 136
Dec 22	@UTSA	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 28	vsSF	L 59-67	-2.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsWSU	W 69-55	-6.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 2	@GONZ	L 72-80	+24.5	W +16.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 4	@SMC	L 76-93	+11.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 8	@ORST	L 55-68	-4.5	L −17.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 15	vsUSD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 17	vsGONZ	L 50-71	+9.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 121
Jan 21	vsLMU	W 69-59	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 24	@PAC	L 54-56	+1.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 110
Jan 28	@WSU	L 58-70	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 128
Feb 4	vsPEPP	W 83-81	-12.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 7	@PORT	L 53-54	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 107
Feb 11	@SCU	L 72-84	+12.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 15	vsORST	W 60-50	-6.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 110
Feb 18	vsSMC	L 70-72	+9.5	W +7.5	133.5	O 142
Feb 21	vsPORT	W 71-59	-7.5	W +4.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 25	@PEPP	W 87-80	-7.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 167
Feb 28	@LMU	W 71-66	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 6	vsUSD	W 58-56	-8.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 114
Mar 7	vsPAC	L 58-61	+1.5	L −1.5	129.5	U 119
Mar 17	vsSTMN	W 67-52	-2.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 119
Mar 22	@AUB	L 85-91	+14.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

−2.5

L 71-73

−12.5

EWU

W 94-67

+18.5

IDST

W 83-74

−2.5

STAN

W 77-69

+18.5

TXST

W 66-52

+6.5

UCSB

L 71-74

−5.5

UTEP

W 75-68

−5.5

UCD

W 79-78

−1.5

WASH

W 70-66

+11.5

UTSA

W 71-68

−7.5

L 59-67

−10.5

WSU

W 69-55

+7.5

GONZ

L 72-80

+16.5

SMC

L 76-93

−5.5

ORST

L 55-68

−17.5

USD

W 75-64

+1.5

GONZ

L 50-71

−11.5

LMU

W 69-59

+5.5

PAC

L 54-56

−0.5

WSU

L 58-70

−10.5

PEPP

W 83-81

−10.5

PORT

L 53-54

−4.5

SCU

L 72-84

+0.5

ORST

W 60-50

+3.5

SMC

L 70-72

+7.5

PORT

W 71-59

+4.5

PEPP

W 87-80

−0.5

LMU

W 71-66

+6.5

USD

W 58-56

−6.5

PAC

L 58-61

−1.5

STMN

W 67-52

+12.5

AUB

L 85-91

+8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

+20.5

L 71-73

−20.5

EWU

W 94-67

+12.5

IDST

W 83-74

+18.5

STAN

W 77-69

−6.5

TXST

W 66-52

−18.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+2.5

UTEP

W 75-68

+6.5

UCD

W 79-78

+13.5

WASH

W 70-66

−15.5

UTSA

W 71-68

−9.5

L 59-67

−20.5

WSU

W 69-55

−20.5

GONZ

L 72-80

−3.5

SMC

L 76-93

+29.5

ORST

L 55-68

−16.5

USD

W 75-64

−8.5

GONZ

L 50-71

−29.5

LMU

W 69-59

−13.5

PAC

L 54-56

−27.5

WSU

L 58-70

−14.5

PEPP

W 83-81

+24.5

PORT

L 53-54

−36.5

SCU

L 72-84

+8.5

ORST

W 60-50

−26.5

SMC

L 70-72

+8.5

PORT

W 71-59

−10.5

PEPP

W 87-80

+21.5

LMU

W 71-66

+0.5

USD

W 58-56

−25.5

PAC

L 58-61

−10.5

STMN

W 67-52

−26.5

AUB

L 85-91

+30.5

over 13under 20avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

CA Baptist

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L W L W L W W W L L W L L W L L W L W W W W L L W L L W W W W W W W

7 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

O U U U U U O U U O O U U U U O O U U U O O U U O U U U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsWIU	W 69-59	-15.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsUCR	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsGRAM	W 72-59	-14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 25	vsUSD	W 76-61	-7.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 29	@ORST	W 75-69	+1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 1	@COLO	L 70-78	+13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 3	@BYU	L 60-91	+18.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 6	@UTAH	L 85-91	+5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 12	@EWU	W 88-83	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 171
Dec 16	vsSOU	W 75-67	-12.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 20	vsSAC	W 74-67	-14.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 141
Dec 29	@UVU	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 1	@UTA	L 51-63	-2.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 114
Jan 3	@TAR	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 157
Jan 8	vsUTU	W 84-72	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsSUU	W 58-55	-14.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 113
Jan 15	@ACU	W 74-58	+1.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 21	vsUTU	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsUVU	W 78-71	-1.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 31	@UTA	W 87-77	-1.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 164
Feb 5	vsTAR	W 56-55	-10.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 111
Feb 7	vsACU	W 65-63	-8.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 128
Feb 12	@SUU	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 14	@UTU	L 65-70	-2.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 19	@UVU	L 46-65	+8.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 111
Feb 26	vsUTA	W 68-56	-6.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 28	vsTAR	W 82-67	-8.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 5	vsACU	W 87-48	-9.5	W +29.5	136.5	U 135
Mar 7	@SUU	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 157
Mar 13	vsUTU	W 86-72	-8.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsUVU	W 63-61	+2.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 20	vsKU	L 60-68	+14.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

WIU

W 69-59

−5.5

UCR

W 80-57

+10.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−1.5

USD

W 76-61

+7.5

ORST

W 75-69

+7.5

COLO

L 70-78

+5.5

BYU

L 60-91

−12.5

UTAH

L 85-91

−0.5

EWU

W 88-83

+1.5

SOU

W 75-67

−4.5

SAC

W 74-67

−7.5

UVU

L 66-73

+0.5

UTA

L 51-63

−14.5

TAR

L 76-81

−3.5

UTU

W 84-72

+4.5

SUU

W 58-55

−11.5

ACU

W 74-58

+17.5

UTU

W 73-64

+0.5

UVU

W 78-71

+5.5

UTA

W 87-77

+8.5

TAR

W 56-55

−9.5

ACU

W 65-63

−6.5

SUU

W 83-66

+11.5

UTU

L 65-70

−7.5

UVU

L 46-65

−10.5

UTA

W 68-56

+5.5

TAR

W 82-67

+6.5

ACU

W 87-48

+29.5

SUU

W 82-75

+0.5

UTU

W 86-72

+5.5

UVU

W 63-61

+4.5

L 60-68

+6.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

WIU

W 69-59

−12.5

UCR

W 80-57

−5.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−13.5

USD

W 76-61

−9.5

ORST

W 75-69

+6.5

COLO

L 70-78

−2.5

BYU

L 60-91

−2.5

UTAH

L 85-91

+30.5

EWU

W 88-83

+17.5

SOU

W 75-67

−13.5

SAC

W 74-67

−17.5

UVU

L 66-73

−9.5

UTA

L 51-63

−20.5

TAR

L 76-81

+9.5

UTU

W 84-72

+11.5

SUU

W 58-55

−37.5

ACU

W 74-58

−8.5

UTU

W 73-64

−6.5

UVU

W 78-71

+1.5

UTA

W 87-77

+29.5

TAR

W 56-55

−27.5

ACU

W 65-63

−7.5

SUU

W 83-66

+1.5

UTU

L 65-70

−8.5

UVU

L 46-65

−31.5

UTA

W 68-56

−10.5

TAR

W 82-67

+9.5

ACU

W 87-48

−1.5

SUU

W 82-75

+8.5

UTU

W 86-72

+13.5

UVU

W 63-61

−15.5

L 60-68

−14.5

over 12under 22avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Seattle U has the better starters

Position by position: Seattle U 1, CA Baptist 0, even 4

Seattle UBetterCA Baptist

G T. Boston TR14.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 76

Even

G E. Duncan TR10.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

G M. Arington4.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 4 ast Score 41

SEASmall

G J. Muller4.4 pts · 1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7

F J. Yeo12.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 45

No call

G J. Dollar1.9 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F W. Heimbrodt12.7 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 72

No call

F R. D'Amelio2.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F T. Thrastarson TR9.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54

No call

F N. Richart TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

Seattle UBetterCA Baptist

SEA offense183rd of 366 · -5.7

Even

CBU defense178th of 366 · -4.0

SEA defense76th of 366 · +0.6

SEABig

CBU offense246th of 366 · -7.5

Backcourt-0.2 · 2 players

SEASmall

Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.6 · 3 players

SEASmall

Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Bench+0.1 · 3 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestSEA betterCBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Seattle U

Guards

T. Boston33 min · TRM. Arington31 minK. HansenNewM. WilliamsNewJ. WhiteNewJ. HarshmanNew

Forwards

J. Yeo32 minW. Heimbrodt32 minT. Thrastarson23 min · TRY. Kawashima3 minR. Adams2 min

Centers

H. Dzellat8 min · TRL. CoulibalyNew

CA Baptist

Guards

E. Duncan21 min · TRJ. Muller21 minJ. Dollar5 minT. ConerNewJ. StonkusNewO. BlanksonNew

Forwards

R. D'Amelio11 minN. Richart7 min · TRA. MilenkovicNewJ. ZilinskasNewA. SafinNew

Centers

M. KovacNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SEA70.1 #283

CBU72.7 #230

Points per possession

SEA1.01 #312

CBU1.07 #209

Pace (possessions)

SEA69.1 #175

CBU68.3 #217

Shooting

Effective FG%

SEA49.8 #249

CBU48.3 #308

3-point %

SEA33.7 #186

CBU33.4 #200

3-point attempt rate

SEA39.4 #185

CBU32.0 #330

Free throw rate

SEA34.2 #201

CBU35.9 #154

Possessions

Turnover rate

SEA16.7 #178

CBU18.0 #270

Offensive rebound rate

SEA23.7 #347

CBU37.5 #13

Assists per game

SEA13.2 #201

CBU10.2 #355

Defense

Points allowed

SEA68.2 #34

CBU67.6 #28

Points allowed per possession

SEA0.99 #20

CBU0.99 #18

Opponent effective FG%

SEA48.4 #46

CBU46.3 #16

Opponent 3-point %

SEA32.1 #69

CBU29.5 #5

Turnovers forced

SEA21.2 #9

CBU16.9 #159

Defensive rebound rate

SEA68.2 #249

CBU72.8 #41

Steals per game

SEA7.8 #52

CBU5.5 #296

Blocks per game

SEA4.9 #20

CBU2.9 #253

SEA		CBU
Scoring
70.1 #283	Points per game	72.7 #230
1.01 #312	Points per possession	1.07 #209
69.1 #175	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #217
Shooting
49.8 #249	Effective FG%	48.3 #308
33.7 #186	3-point %	33.4 #200
39.4 #185	3-point attempt rate	32.0 #330
34.2 #201	Free throw rate	35.9 #154
Possessions
16.7 #178	Turnover rate	18.0 #270
23.7 #347	Offensive rebound rate	37.5 #13
13.2 #201	Assists per game	10.2 #355
Defense
68.2 #34	Points allowed	67.6 #28
0.99 #20	Points allowed per possession	0.99 #18
48.4 #46	Opponent effective FG%	46.3 #16
32.1 #69	Opponent 3-point %	29.5 #5
21.2 #9	Turnovers forced	16.9 #159
68.2 #249	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #41
7.8 #52	Steals per game	5.5 #296
4.9 #20	Blocks per game	2.9 #253

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Seattle U

19-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn85–91
Wvs St Thomas67–52
Lvs Pacific58–61
Wvs San Diego58–56
W@ LMU71–66

A week or more of rest.

CA Baptist

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kansas60–68
Wvs Utah Valley63–61
Wvs Utah Tech86–72
W@ Southern Utah82–75
Wvs Abilene Chrstn87–48

A week or more of rest.

Seattle U Redhawks at California Baptist Lancers

What could decide it: SEA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Seattle U

CA Baptist

Seattle U has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Seattle U

CA Baptist