Merrimack Warriors at UAlbany Great Danes: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 8, 2:00 PM ETBroadview Center · at UAlbany

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Merrimack and UAlbany
MRMK	This season	UALB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRMK 70–68 · win probability MRMK 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MRMK has more of the edges

MRMK 5, UALB 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MRMKBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MRMK 14.8%, UALB 18.5%. Forced: MRMK 20.4%, UALB 15.8%

MRMKBig

UALB offense vs MRMK defense

Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 139th, on the model’s ratings

UALBBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MRMK 24.8%, UALB 32.7%. Defensive: MRMK 60.1%, UALB 67.6%

MRMKBig

Three-pointers

MRMK hits 32.7% and allows 30.3%; UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 46.1% and 37.6% of their shots

MRMKBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MRMK 38.2, UALB 24.9. Allowed: MRMK 37.1, UALB 35.7

MRMKSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MRMK 49.1 and allows 46.7; UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2

UALBSmall

MRMK offense vs UALB defense

Offense 316th of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings

UALBSmall

Home court

UALB at home. This season: UALB 0-0 at home, MRMK 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

MRMK has played the 286th-hardest schedule, UALB the 260th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: MRMK plays 64.4 a game (357th fastest), UALB 65.6 (324th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MRMK 37%, UALB 38%. Transfers in: MRMK 3, UALB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MRMK -2.6	—
Total	—	137.9	—
Projected score	—	MRMK 70.2 · UALB 67.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRMK -1.7	—
1H total	64.5	—
1H projected score	MRMK 33.1 · UALB 31.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRMK LLWLL	20-14	59%	9-8	—
UALB WLWLL	11-18	38%	4-5	—

Venue/role: MRMK away; UALB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRMK UOUUU	12-22	35%	23-11
UALB UUOUO	14-15	48%	8-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRMK	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UALB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Merrimack

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ FLA	L45–80WU
Nov 18	vs BU	W91–79WO
Nov 27	vs UVM	L59–66LU

UAlbany

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs DART	W87–73WO
Nov 15	@ HC	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs WIU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Merrimack

34 games played

Straight up

23-11

68% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1168%

L L L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L L L W W W L L W L W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

U O U O O U U O U U U U U O U U U O O U U U U O U O U O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 28	@PENN	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsHOF	L 58-78	+5.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	vsLAS	W 66-60	+2.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 126
Dec 4	vsRID	W 68-66	-9.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsFAIR	W 74-63	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PRIN	W 59-56	+2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 14	@UVM	L 59-66	+6.5	L −0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 29	@SHU	W 80-72	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 2	vsMSM	W 75-65	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	vsMAN	W 73-66	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	@SIE	W 63-59	+5.5	W +9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@SPU	L 63-76	+1.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsQUIN	W 83-71	+1.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 19	@MRST	W 68-55	+6.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 22	@IONA	L 60-61	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 121
Jan 24	vsSPU	W 67-59	-2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 126
Feb 1	vsSHU	W 75-58	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 5	@MSM	W 87-70	-2.5	W +14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@RID	W 73-47	-8.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsMRST	W 81-56	-2.5	W +22.5	128.5	O 137
Feb 15	@QUIN	W 56-49	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 105
Feb 20	vsSIE	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsIONA	W 88-86	-6.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 174
Feb 27	@CAN	L 62-67	-8.5	L −13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	@NIA	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	126.5	O 139
Mar 6	vsSHU	W 70-48	-6.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 118
Mar 8	vsMRST	W 58-57	-2.5	L −1.5	128.5	U 115
Mar 10	vsSIE	L 54-64	-2.5	L −12.5	128.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

PENN

L 65-77

−9.5

HOF

L 58-78

−14.5

LAS

W 66-60

+8.5

RID

W 68-66

−7.5

FAIR

W 74-63

+7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

+5.5

UVM

L 59-66

−0.5

SHU

W 80-72

+9.5

MSM

W 75-65

+6.5

MAN

W 73-66

+0.5

SIE

W 63-59

+9.5

SPU

L 63-76

−11.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+13.5

MRST

W 68-55

+19.5

IONA

L 60-61

−2.5

SPU

W 67-59

+5.5

SHU

W 75-58

+11.5

MSM

W 87-70

+14.5

RID

W 73-47

+17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+22.5

QUIN

W 56-49

+10.5

SIE

W 79-72

+4.5

IONA

W 88-86

−4.5

CAN

L 62-67

−13.5

NIA

W 73-66

−0.5

SHU

W 70-48

+15.5

MRST

W 58-57

−1.5

SIE

L 54-64

−12.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

PENN

L 65-77

−10.5

HOF

L 58-78

+0.5

LAS

W 66-60

−6.5

RID

W 68-66

−4.5

FAIR

W 74-63

−7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

−19.5

UVM

L 59-66

−11.5

SHU

W 80-72

+7.5

MSM

W 75-65

−1.5

MAN

W 73-66

−9.5

SIE

W 63-59

−10.5

SPU

L 63-76

+5.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+12.5

MRST

W 68-55

−10.5

IONA

L 60-61

−22.5

SPU

W 67-59

−8.5

SHU

W 75-58

−14.5

MSM

W 87-70

+22.5

RID

W 73-47

−17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+8.5

QUIN

W 56-49

−36.5

SIE

W 79-72

+17.5

IONA

W 88-86

+37.5

CAN

L 62-67

−0.5

NIA

W 73-66

+12.5

SHU

W 70-48

−25.5

MRST

W 58-57

−13.5

SIE

L 54-64

−10.5

over 12under 22avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

UAlbany

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

11-18

38% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L L L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1838%

L L L W W L L W L W L L L W W W L L L L W L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U U U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O U U O O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MARQ	L 53-80	+24.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 8	@MASS	L 62-83	+9.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 14	@URI	L 61-80	+15.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 21	@SIE	L 63-73	+10.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 28	vsCOLG	L 67-69	+7.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsFOR	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 6	@COLU	L 65-93	+13.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 10	vsYALE	L 82-93	+17.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 175
Dec 13	@FAU	L 79-105	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 184
Dec 17	@STBK	W 71-55	+10.5	W +26.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 21	vsCOR	L 75-83	+6.5	L −1.5	167.5	U 158
Dec 30	@SC	L 67-96	+19.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	@UML	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRY	W 71-46	-3.5	W +21.5	136.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsBING	W 69-53	-8.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Jan 19	vsUVM	W 75-68	+5.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 22	@ME	L 49-52	-2.5	L −5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	@UNH	L 72-80	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsNJIT	L 68-77	-5.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 31	vsUMBC	L 65-68	+1.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 133
Feb 5	@BRY	W 65-63	+1.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 128
Feb 7	vsUML	L 79-89	-4.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 168
Feb 14	@BING	W 77-74	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 151
Feb 19	@NJIT	W 81-63	+3.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	@UMBC	L 62-66	+7.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 128
Feb 26	vsME	L 59-70	-4.5	L −15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsUNH	W 84-61	-3.5	W +19.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 3	@UVM	L 56-69	+9.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	@UML	L 76-81	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−2.5

MASS

L 62-83

−11.5

URI

L 61-80

−3.5

SIE

L 63-73

+0.5

COLG

L 67-69

+5.5

FOR

L 68-88

−9.5

COLU

L 65-93

−14.5

YALE

L 82-93

+6.5

FAU

L 79-105

−7.5

STBK

W 71-55

+26.5

COR

L 75-83

−1.5

L 67-96

−9.5

UML

L 71-83

−9.5

BRY

W 71-46

+21.5

BING

W 69-53

+7.5

UVM

W 75-68

+12.5

L 49-52

−5.5

UNH

L 72-80

−5.5

NJIT

L 68-77

−14.5

UMBC

L 65-68

−1.5

BRY

W 65-63

+3.5

UML

L 79-89

−14.5

BING

W 77-74

−1.5

NJIT

W 81-63

+21.5

UMBC

L 62-66

+3.5

L 59-70

−15.5

UNH

W 84-61

+19.5

UVM

L 56-69

−3.5

UML

L 76-81

−2.5

covered 11didn’t cover 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−16.5

MASS

L 62-83

−10.5

URI

L 61-80

−9.5

SIE

L 63-73

−4.5

COLG

L 67-69

−5.5

FOR

L 68-88

+12.5

COLU

L 65-93

+13.5

YALE

L 82-93

+29.5

FAU

L 79-105

+36.5

STBK

W 71-55

−20.5

COR

L 75-83

−9.5

L 67-96

+14.5

UML

L 71-83

+3.5

BRY

W 71-46

−19.5

BING

W 69-53

−16.5

UVM

W 75-68

+3.5

L 49-52

−30.5

UNH

L 72-80

+14.5

NJIT

L 68-77

+5.5

UMBC

L 65-68

−8.5

BRY

W 65-63

−5.5

UML

L 79-89

+24.5

BING

W 77-74

+14.5

NJIT

W 81-63

+1.5

UMBC

L 62-66

−16.5

L 59-70

−1.5

UNH

W 84-61

+6.5

UVM

L 56-69

−11.5

UML

L 76-81

+10.5

over 14under 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Merrimack has the better starters

Position by position: Merrimack 3, UAlbany 1, even 1

MerrimackBetterUAlbany

G T. Dorset11.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45

MRMKSmall

G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27

G D. Anglin TR9.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 19

UALBSmall

G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48

G A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano TR2 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

F T. Brogna6.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 16

MRMKSmall

G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1

F E. Wilborn TR2.3 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 30

MRMKSmall

F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

MerrimackBetterUAlbany

MRMK offense316th of 366 · -10.3

UALBSmall

UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7

MRMK defense139th of 366 · -2.9

MRMKBig

UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players

UALBSmall

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.2 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestMRMK betterUALB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Merrimack

Guards

T. Dorset36 minD. Anglin28 min · TRA. Vladimir Soqui Urbano10 min · TRA. LesburtNewJ. AndersonNewQ. KwasniakNew

Forwards

T. Brogna29 minE. Wilborn9 min · TRD. Veillette8 minJ. MooreNewD. MunroNewJ. SkoricNew

UAlbany

Guards

A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew

Forwards

B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew

Centers

K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MRMK68.5 #304

UALB68.7 #302

Points per possession

MRMK1.06 #221

UALB1.05 #259

Pace (possessions)

MRMK64.4 #357

UALB65.6 #324

Shooting

Effective FG%

MRMK49.1 #288

UALB51.4 #182

3-point %

MRMK32.7 #243

UALB32.6 #248

3-point attempt rate

MRMK46.1 #46

UALB37.6 #220

Free throw rate

MRMK38.2 #99

UALB24.9 #364

Possessions

Turnover rate

MRMK14.8 #55

UALB18.5 #299

Offensive rebound rate

MRMK24.8 #343

UALB32.7 #99

Assists per game

MRMK12.4 #257

UALB12.8 #232

Defense

Points allowed

MRMK66.5 #19

UALB74.5 #176

Points allowed per possession

MRMK1.03 #62

UALB1.14 #302

Opponent effective FG%

MRMK46.7 #17

UALB53.2 #275

Opponent 3-point %

MRMK30.3 #12

UALB36.0 #302

Turnovers forced

MRMK20.4 #16

UALB15.8 #228

Defensive rebound rate

MRMK60.1 #365

UALB67.6 #277

Steals per game

MRMK8.2 #32

UALB6.7 #153

Blocks per game

MRMK5.2 #13

UALB3.9 #82

MRMK		UALB
Scoring
68.5 #304	Points per game	68.7 #302
1.06 #221	Points per possession	1.05 #259
64.4 #357	Pace (possessions)	65.6 #324
Shooting
49.1 #288	Effective FG%	51.4 #182
32.7 #243	3-point %	32.6 #248
46.1 #46	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #220
38.2 #99	Free throw rate	24.9 #364
Possessions
14.8 #55	Turnover rate	18.5 #299
24.8 #343	Offensive rebound rate	32.7 #99
12.4 #257	Assists per game	12.8 #232
Defense
66.5 #19	Points allowed	74.5 #176
1.03 #62	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #302
46.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	53.2 #275
30.3 #12	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #302
20.4 #16	Turnovers forced	15.8 #228
60.1 #365	Defensive rebound rate	67.6 #277
8.2 #32	Steals per game	6.7 #153
5.2 #13	Blocks per game	3.9 #82

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Merrimack

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena54–64
Wvs Marist58–57
Wvs Sacred Heart70–48
W@ Niagara73–66
L@ Canisius62–67

A week or more of rest.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMass Lowell76–81
L@ Vermont56–69
Wvs New Hampshire84–61
Lvs Maine59–70
L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.

Merrimack Warriors at UAlbany Great Danes

What could decide it: MRMK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Merrimack

UAlbany

Merrimack has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Merrimack

UAlbany