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  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. UALB @ HC
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

UAlbany Great Danes at Holy Cross Crusaders

Hart Center Arena · at Holy Cross
#301UALBUAlbany
@
#317HCHoly Cross
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UALBThis seasonHC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HC 72–70 · win probability HC 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 141.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HC has more of the edges

UALB 2, HC 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UALB 24.9, HC 31.5. Allowed: UALB 35.7, HC 27.6
UALBSmall
HC offense vs UALB defense
Offense 335th of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings
HCSmall
Three-pointers
UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%; HC hits 32.5% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 37.6% and 37.3% of their shots
UALBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2; HC 49.8 and allows 54.8
HCSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UALB 18.5%, HC 15.3%. Forced: UALB 15.8%, HC 14.1%
HCSmall
Home court
HC at home. This season: HC 0-0 at home, UALB 0-0 away
HCSmall
UALB offense vs HC defense
Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 269th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UALB has played the 260th-hardest schedule, HC the 225th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UALB 38%, HC 51%. Transfers in: UALB 3, HC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UALB 32.7%, HC 21.9%. Defensive: UALB 67.6%, HC 73.0%
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: UALB plays 65.6 a game (324th fastest), HC 65.8 (320th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HC -1.9—
Total—141.2—
Projected score—UALB 69.7 · HC 71.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHC -1.0—
1H total66.1—
1H projected scoreUALB 32.6 · HC 33.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UAlbany 1, Holy Cross 1, even 3
UAlbanyBetterHoly Cross
G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27
Even
G J. St. Germain4.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48
Even
F J. Nugent11.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
UALBBig
F A. Richard4.9 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 1
G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1
HCSmall
F D. Ryan4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 21
F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3
No call
F C. Hare2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
UAlbanyBetterHoly Cross
UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0
Even
HC defense269th of 366 · -6.8
UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7
UALBSmall
HC offense335th of 366 · -10.9
Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players
HCBig
Backcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
UALBBig
Frontcourt-6.1 · 4 players
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUALB betterHC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UAlbany
Guards
A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew
Forwards
B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew
Centers
K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew
Holy Cross
Guards
J. St. Germain15 minA. Mejia1 minA. AlijosiusNewK. HansonNewT. WilsonNewJ. GermanyNew
Forwards
J. Nugent30 minA. Richard27 minD. Ryan13 minC. Hare7 minJ. Haigh6 minE. Clark1 min
Centers
K. MgbejioforNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UALBHC
Scoring
68.7 #302Points per game67.9 #314
1.05 #259Points per possession1.03 #288
65.6 #324Pace (possessions)65.8 #320
Shooting
51.4 #182Effective FG%49.8 #248
32.6 #2483-point %32.5 #252
37.6 #2203-point attempt rate37.3 #225
24.9 #364Free throw rate31.5 #268
Possessions
18.5 #299Turnover rate15.3 #83
32.7 #99Offensive rebound rate21.9 #356
12.8 #232Assists per game10.7 #346
Defense
74.5 #176Points allowed74.8 #182
1.14 #302Points allowed per possession1.14 #305
53.2 #275Opponent effective FG%54.8 #324
36.0 #302Opponent 3-point %34.0 #181
15.8 #228Turnovers forced14.1 #330
67.6 #277Defensive rebound rate73.0 #37
6.7 #153Steals per game5.5 #304
3.9 #82Blocks per game1.7 #355
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMass Lowell76–81
  • L@ Vermont56–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–61
  • Lvs Maine59–70
  • L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.

Holy Cross

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Lehigh66–69
  • W@ Lafayette82–77
  • Lvs Loyola MD62–76
  • L@ Boston U63–78
  • W@ Bucknell72–63

A week or more of rest.