Brown Bears at Holy Cross Crusaders: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM ETHart Center Arena · at Holy Cross

#156BRWNBrown

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Brown and Holy Cross
BRWN	This season	HC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BRWN 73–67 · win probability BRWN 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BRWN has more of the edges

BRWN 4, HC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BRWNBig

HC offense vs BRWN defense

Offense 335th of 366 against a defense 124th, on the model’s ratings

HCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BRWN 28.1, HC 31.5. Allowed: BRWN 37.6, HC 27.6

BRWNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BRWN 100%, HC 51%. Transfers in: BRWN 0, HC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

HCSmall

Home court

HC at home. This season: HC 0-0 at home, BRWN 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

BRWN has played the 176th-hardest schedule, HC the 225th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BRWNSmall

BRWN offense vs HC defense

Offense 220th of 366 against a defense 269th, on the model’s ratings

BRWNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BRWN 48.6 and allows 51.3; HC 49.8 and allows 54.8

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: BRWN plays 68.0 a game (229th fastest), HC 65.8 (320th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

BRWN hits 30.3% and allows 33.5%; HC hits 32.5% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 36.3% and 37.3% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BRWN 19.4%, HC 15.3%. Forced: BRWN 18.8%, HC 14.1%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BRWN 29.0%, HC 21.9%. Defensive: BRWN 70.0%, HC 73.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BRWN -6.0	—
Total	—	139.7	—
Projected score	—	BRWN 72.8 · HC 66.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRWN -3.7	—
1H total	65.4	—
1H projected score	BRWN 34.5 · HC 30.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BRWN WWLWL	13-12	52%	8-5	—
HC WLLWW	16-15	52%	6-6	—

Venue/role: BRWN away; HC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRWN OOOOU	13-12	52%	7-18
HC UUUOU	15-16	48%	9-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRWN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
HC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Brown

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ UVM	L84–89WO
Nov 28	@ AF	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ URI	L56–66WU

Holy Cross

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs HARV	L53–81LU
Nov 25	@ DART	L64–89LO
Nov 29	vs UNH	W74–72LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BRWN 1–1 HCSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · BRWN 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2025-26	HC 49 @ BRWN 68	BRWN -2.5	BRWN W
Nov 16, 2024-25	HC 73 @ BRWN 65	BRWN -7.5	HC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Brown

25 games played

Straight up

7-18

28% wins

Against the spread

13-12

52% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-12

52% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1828%

L L L L W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1252%

L W L L W L W W W W W L L W L L L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1252%

U O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 18	vsHC	W 68-49	-2.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 20	@STBK	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 23	@ME	W 58-53	-1.5	W +3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 26	@UNH	W 59-47	-5.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 106
Dec 2	@URI	L 56-66	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 5	vsBRY	W 75-56	-6.5	W +12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 9	@PROV	L 79-86	+19.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 165
Jan 5	vsYALE	L 53-70	+8.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PENN	L 73-81	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	vsCOLU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	vsCOR	L 67-89	+2.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	@PRIN	L 53-63	+4.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsHARV	L 59-69	+1.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	vsDART	L 70-77	-1.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 6	@YALE	L 69-81	+15.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 13	@HARV	L 53-56	+7.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	@DART	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 155
Feb 20	vsPRIN	W 80-71	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	@COLU	L 62-80	+5.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	@COR	L 80-86	+9.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsPENN	L 61-82	-1.5	L −22.5	146.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

W 68-49

+16.5

STBK

L 70-80

−6.5

W 58-53

+3.5

UNH

W 59-47

+6.5

URI

L 56-66

+3.5

BRY

W 75-56

+12.5

PROV

L 79-86

+12.5

YALE

L 53-70

−8.5

PENN

L 73-81

−2.5

COLU

W 86-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-89

−19.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−5.5

HARV

L 59-69

−8.5

DART

L 70-77

−8.5

YALE

L 69-81

+3.5

HARV

L 53-56

+4.5

DART

W 79-76

+5.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+6.5

COLU

L 62-80

−12.5

COR

L 80-86

+3.5

PENN

L 61-82

−22.5

covered 13didn’t cover 12avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

W 68-49

−24.5

STBK

L 70-80

+13.5

W 58-53

−16.5

UNH

W 59-47

−30.5

URI

L 56-66

−16.5

BRY

W 75-56

+0.5

PROV

L 79-86

+19.5

YALE

L 53-70

−19.5

PENN

L 73-81

+8.5

COLU

W 86-80

+22.5

COR

L 67-89

−7.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−18.5

HARV

L 59-69

−4.5

DART

L 70-77

+4.5

YALE

L 69-81

+9.5

HARV

L 53-56

−22.5

DART

W 79-76

+15.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+21.5

COLU

L 62-80

+1.5

COR

L 80-86

+9.5

PENN

L 61-82

−3.5

over 13under 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Holy Cross

31 games played

Straight up

9-22

29% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2229%

L L L W L L L W W L L W L L W W L L L L L L W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W W W L L W L L W W L L L W W L W W L L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

O U O U U U O U O O U U U U O O U O O O U U O O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PROV	L 79-89	+23.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	@BYU	L 53-98	+38.5	L −6.5	165.5	U 151
Nov 10	@UTAH	L 69-87	+21.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 16	vsHAMP	W 67-61	+4.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 128
Nov 18	@BRWN	L 49-68	+2.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 21	@SHU	L 66-79	+7.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 24	vsSIE	L 69-73	+9.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 3	vsNE	W 76-59	+8.5	W +25.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 6	@FOR	W 70-69	+10.5	W +11.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 16	vsDART	L 64-89	+1.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 20	@HARV	L 53-81	+10.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 31	vsBUCK	W 65-58	+1.5	W +8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsNAVY	L 58-65	+5.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 123
Jan 7	@LEH	L 58-66	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 124
Jan 10	@AMER	W 84-73	+8.5	W +19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 14	vsARMY	W 82-75	-4.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 17	@LAF	L 55-74	+2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@NAVY	L 68-85	+11.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 153
Jan 24	vsAMER	L 67-76	+4.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@COLG	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 31	@ARMY	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 2	vsBU	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsLEH	W 76-67	+1.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 11	vsCOLG	L 70-74	+8.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 15	@L-MD	L 73-83	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsLAF	L 83-86	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	@BUCK	W 72-63	+2.5	W +11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@BU	L 63-78	+8.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	vsL-MD	L 62-76	-1.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 138
Mar 3	@LAF	W 82-77	+4.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 159
Mar 5	@LEH	L 66-69	+5.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+13.5

BYU

L 53-98

−6.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+3.5

HAMP

W 67-61

+10.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−16.5

SHU

L 66-79

−5.5

SIE

L 69-73

+5.5

W 76-59

+25.5

FOR

W 70-69

+11.5

DART

L 64-89

−23.5

HARV

L 53-81

−17.5

BUCK

W 65-58

+8.5

NAVY

L 58-65

−1.5

LEH

L 58-66

−5.5

AMER

W 84-73

+19.5

ARMY

W 82-75

+2.5

LAF

L 55-74

−16.5

NAVY

L 68-85

−5.5

AMER

L 67-76

−4.5

COLG

L 74-79

+5.5

ARMY

L 68-69

+1.5

L 64-72

−5.5

LEH

W 76-67

+10.5

COLG

L 70-74

+4.5

L-MD

L 73-83

−5.5

LAF

L 83-86

−4.5

BUCK

W 72-63

+11.5

L 63-78

−6.5

L-MD

L 62-76

−15.5

LAF

W 82-77

+9.5

LEH

L 66-69

+2.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+15.5

BYU

L 53-98

−14.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+0.5

HAMP

W 67-61

−20.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−24.5

SHU

L 66-79

−7.5

SIE

L 69-73

+4.5

W 76-59

−10.5

FOR

W 70-69

+0.5

DART

L 64-89

+5.5

HARV

L 53-81

−2.5

BUCK

W 65-58

−10.5

NAVY

L 58-65

−14.5

LEH

L 58-66

−13.5

AMER

W 84-73

+19.5

ARMY

W 82-75

+14.5

LAF

L 55-74

−9.5

NAVY

L 68-85

+18.5

AMER

L 67-76

+3.5

COLG

L 74-79

+8.5

ARMY

L 68-69

−7.5

L 64-72

−3.5

LEH

W 76-67

+5.5

COLG

L 70-74

+1.5

L-MD

L 73-83

+9.5

LAF

L 83-86

+29.5

BUCK

W 72-63

−7.5

L 63-78

−0.5

L-MD

L 62-76

−13.5

LAF

W 82-77

+17.5

LEH

L 66-69

−7.5

over 15under 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Brown has the better starters

Position by position: Brown 2, Holy Cross 1, even 2

BrownBetterHoly Cross

G J. Jenkins8.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 47

BRWNSmall

G J. St. Germain4.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

G A. Uchidiuno9.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20

HCSmall

F J. Nugent11.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53

G M. Wrisby-Jefferson4.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 25

BRWNSmall

F A. Richard4.9 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 1

G D. Rochester5.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 27

Even

F D. Ryan4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 21

F N. Dabo7.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 72

No call

F C. Hare2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

BrownBetterHoly Cross

BRWN offense220th of 366 · -6.7

Even

HC defense269th of 366 · -6.8

BRWN defense124th of 366 · -2.2

BRWNBig

HC offense335th of 366 · -10.9

Backcourt-6.6 · 4 players

HCBig

Backcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

BRWNBig

Frontcourt-6.1 · 4 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

HCSmall

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestBRWN betterHC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Brown

Guards

J. Jenkins31 minA. Uchidiuno26 minM. Wrisby-Jefferson23 minD. Rochester22 minI. Langham21 minB. Loughlin18 min

Forwards

N. Dabo24 minC. O'Sullivan11 minW. DeGraaf8 minE. JamgbadiNewL. JonesNew

Holy Cross

Guards

J. St. Germain15 minA. Mejia1 minA. AlijosiusNewK. HansonNewT. WilsonNewJ. GermanyNew

Forwards

J. Nugent30 minA. Richard27 minD. Ryan13 minC. Hare7 minJ. Haigh6 minE. Clark1 min

Centers

K. MgbejioforNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BRWN67.2 #330

HC67.9 #314

Points per possession

BRWN0.98 #338

HC1.03 #288

Pace (possessions)

BRWN68.0 #229

HC65.8 #320

Shooting

Effective FG%

BRWN48.6 #299

HC49.8 #248

3-point %

BRWN30.3 #338

HC32.5 #252

3-point attempt rate

BRWN36.3 #244

HC37.3 #225

Free throw rate

BRWN28.1 #342

HC31.5 #268

Possessions

Turnover rate

BRWN19.4 #334

HC15.3 #83

Offensive rebound rate

BRWN29.0 #236

HC21.9 #356

Assists per game

BRWN14.8 #99

HC10.7 #346

Defense

Points allowed

BRWN72.4 #115

HC74.8 #182

Points allowed per possession

BRWN1.07 #134

HC1.14 #305

Opponent effective FG%

BRWN51.3 #176

HC54.8 #324

Opponent 3-point %

BRWN33.5 #157

HC34.0 #181

Turnovers forced

BRWN18.8 #57

HC14.1 #330

Defensive rebound rate

BRWN70.0 #164

HC73.0 #37

Steals per game

BRWN7.5 #82

HC5.5 #304

Blocks per game

BRWN3.8 #104

HC1.7 #355

BRWN		HC
Scoring
67.2 #330	Points per game	67.9 #314
0.98 #338	Points per possession	1.03 #288
68.0 #229	Pace (possessions)	65.8 #320
Shooting
48.6 #299	Effective FG%	49.8 #248
30.3 #338	3-point %	32.5 #252
36.3 #244	3-point attempt rate	37.3 #225
28.1 #342	Free throw rate	31.5 #268
Possessions
19.4 #334	Turnover rate	15.3 #83
29.0 #236	Offensive rebound rate	21.9 #356
14.8 #99	Assists per game	10.7 #346
Defense
72.4 #115	Points allowed	74.8 #182
1.07 #134	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #305
51.3 #176	Opponent effective FG%	54.8 #324
33.5 #157	Opponent 3-point %	34.0 #181
18.8 #57	Turnovers forced	14.1 #330
70.0 #164	Defensive rebound rate	73.0 #37
7.5 #82	Steals per game	5.5 #304
3.8 #104	Blocks per game	1.7 #355

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Brown

7-18 in 2025-26 overall · 3-11 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn61–82
L@ Cornell80–86
L@ Columbia62–80
Wvs Princeton80–71
W@ Dartmouth79–76

A week or more of rest.

Holy Cross

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh66–69
W@ Lafayette82–77
Lvs Loyola MD62–76
L@ Boston U63–78
W@ Bucknell72–63

A week or more of rest.

Brown Bears at Holy Cross Crusaders

What could decide it: BRWN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Brown

Holy Cross

Brown has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Brown

Holy Cross