1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. CHST @ UIC
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Chicago State Cougars at UIC Flames

Credit Union 1 Arena · at UIC
#362CHSTChicago St
@
#110UICUIC
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CHSTThis seasonUIC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UIC 84–59 · win probability UIC 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 142.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UIC has more of the edges

CHST 1, UIC 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UICBig
CHST offense vs UIC defense
Offense 361st of 366 against a defense 106th, on the model’s ratings
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UIC offense vs CHST defense
Offense 117th of 366 against a defense 339th, on the model’s ratings
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Shooting
Effective FG%: CHST 45.3 and allows 56.7; UIC 49.8 and allows 50.5
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Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CHST 28.3%, UIC 36.3%. Defensive: CHST 65.0%, UIC 68.0%
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Free throws
Free throw rate: CHST 30.0, UIC 36.2. Allowed: CHST 38.0, UIC 33.9
Context
Schedule so far
CHST has played the 259th-hardest schedule, UIC the 161st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UICSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CHST 8%, UIC 60%. Transfers in: CHST 6, UIC 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CHSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CHST 15.7%, UIC 17.6%. Forced: CHST 20.1%, UIC 19.7%
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Three-pointers
CHST hits 32.1% and allows 35.6%; UIC hits 31.6% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 30.9% and 32.8% of their shots
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Home court
UIC at home. This season: UIC 0-0 at home, CHST 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: CHST plays 66.0 a game (314th fastest), UIC 68.1 (227th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UIC -24.8—
Total—142.9—
Projected score—CHST 59.1 · UIC 83.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUIC -14.6—
1H total66.9—
1H projected scoreCHST 26.1 · UIC 40.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UIC has the better starters

Position by position: Chicago St 0, UIC 5, even 0
Chicago StBetterUIC
G M. Price TR6.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 3
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G B. Gealer TR10.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 79
G A. Carraway TR4.9 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
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G A. Johnson11 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 55
G M. Olafioye TR3.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 2
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G A. Thomas TR11.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 69
F B. Akanmu TR5.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 14
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G M. Lowery7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59
F D. Loury TR4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1
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G R. Washington8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 77
Chicago StBetterUIC
CHST offense361st of 366 · -14.2
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UIC defense106th of 366 · -1.0
CHST defense339th of 366 · -9.0
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UIC offense117th of 366 · -2.6
Backcourt-7.9 · 3 players
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Backcourt+2.1 · 5 players
Frontcourt-4.6 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.7 · 2 players
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Bench+0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCHST betterUIC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Chicago St
Guards
M. Price18 min · TRA. Carraway16 min · TRM. Olafioye16 min · TRM. Robinson15 minJ. Pazon11 min · TRW. Lovings-WattsNew
Forwards
B. Akanmu21 min · TRD. Loury17 min · TRK. FomanNewL. Stephane DjiyaNewF. SheriffNewL. HodgesNew
Centers
B. KalonjiNew
UIC
Guards
B. Gealer30 min · TRA. Johnson29 minA. Thomas28 min · TRM. Lowery26 minR. Washington23 minA. Henderson21 min
Forwards
J. Nathaniel20 minL. Scroggins17 min · TRN. BarrantesNewD. HudsonNewD. ShawNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CHSTUIC
Scoring
65.2 #348Points per game73.9 #196
0.99 #337Points per possession1.09 #171
66.0 #314Pace (possessions)68.1 #227
Shooting
45.3 #358Effective FG%49.8 #245
32.1 #2753-point %31.6 #300
30.9 #3413-point attempt rate32.8 #319
30.0 #311Free throw rate36.2 #145
Possessions
15.7 #114Turnover rate17.6 #247
28.3 #255Offensive rebound rate36.3 #22
11.7 #305Assists per game14.1 #143
Defense
76.5 #231Points allowed71.2 #81
1.16 #332Points allowed per possession1.05 #83
56.7 #354Opponent effective FG%50.5 #125
35.6 #290Opponent 3-point %33.4 #147
20.1 #21Turnovers forced19.7 #30
65.0 #339Defensive rebound rate68.0 #255
8.2 #33Steals per game7.6 #70
1.3 #365Blocks per game3.6 #126
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Chicago St

6-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island75–79
  • L@ Wagner61–80
  • L@ Long Island56–73
  • Wvs C Connecticut70–51
  • Lvs FDU59–60

A week or more of rest.

UIC

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ California73–91
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–84
  • Wvs Drake72–51
  • Wvs Murray St92–79
  • L@ Indiana St63–79

A week or more of rest.