1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. UML @ MASS
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

UMass Lowell River Hawks at Massachusetts Minutemen

Mullins Center · at UMass
#307UMLUMass Lowell
@
#209MASSUMass
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMLThis seasonMASS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MASS 82–71 · win probability MASS 82%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MASS has more of the edges

UML 1, MASS 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MASSBig
MASS offense vs UML defense
Offense 170th of 366 against a defense 318th, on the model’s ratings
MASSBig
Three-pointers
UML hits 32.2% and allows 34.6%; MASS hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 31.3% and 35.4% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
UML has played the 312th-hardest schedule, MASS the 181st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UMLBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UML 34.9, MASS 37.0. Allowed: UML 28.3, MASS 44.6
MASSSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UML 18.0%, MASS 17.8%. Forced: UML 14.2%, MASS 16.9%
MASSSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UML 49.8 and allows 53.5; MASS 53.1 and allows 52.9
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: UML plays 68.9 a game (189th fastest), MASS 72.7 (21st). Faster games mean more points
MASSSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UML 32.7%, MASS 33.3%. Defensive: UML 70.7%, MASS 73.9%
MASSSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UML 16%, MASS 46%. Transfers in: UML 3, MASS 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MASSSmall
Home court
MASS at home. This season: MASS 0-0 at home, UML 0-0 away
Even
UML offense vs MASS defense
Offense 286th of 366 against a defense 248th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MASS -10.6—
Total—152.4—
Projected score—UML 70.9 · MASS 81.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMASS -6.2—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreUML 32.5 · MASS 38.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UMass Lowell 2, UMass 2, even 1
UMass LowellBetterUMass
G C. Jones TR4.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6
MASSSmall
G D. Carbuccia6.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 29
G J. Newton TR7.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
UMLSmall
G J. Ndjigue6.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34
G I. Walter1.6 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Clayton TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36
F V. Okojie4.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
MASSBig
F J. Wang TR8.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 62
F J. Harris TR5.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 59
UMLBig
F D. Wimbley2.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 0
UMass LowellBetterUMass
UML offense286th of 366 · -8.9
Even
MASS defense248th of 366 · -6.5
UML defense318th of 366 · -8.2
MASSBig
MASS offense170th of 366 · -5.2
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
UMLSmall
Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-2.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
Even
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUML betterMASS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMass Lowell
Guards
C. Jones18 min · TRJ. Newton17 min · TRI. Walter8 minK. GilesNewJ. CannadyNewM. EllisNew
Forwards
V. Okojie18 minJ. Harris11 min · TRJ. Roberson7 minD. HandNewE. DialloNew
UMass
Guards
D. Carbuccia28 minJ. Ndjigue27 minJ. Clayton18 min · TRR. Castineyra3 minJ. EngelNewC. HaileyNew
Forwards
J. Wang20 min · TRD. Wimbley14 minL. Damjanac10 minD. Clerc9 minA. AhmedNewC. SyllaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMLMASS
Scoring
71.7 #253Points per game79.9 #68
1.04 #272Points per possession1.10 #144
68.9 #189Pace (possessions)72.7 #21
Shooting
49.8 #247Effective FG%53.1 #99
32.2 #2693-point %35.2 #100
31.3 #3363-point attempt rate35.4 #265
34.9 #183Free throw rate37.0 #130
Possessions
18.0 #269Turnover rate17.8 #263
32.7 #98Offensive rebound rate33.3 #80
11.9 #294Assists per game16.7 #30
Defense
77.4 #249Points allowed78.8 #288
1.13 #277Points allowed per possession1.09 #189
53.5 #284Opponent effective FG%52.9 #262
34.6 #226Opponent 3-point %33.0 #121
14.2 #329Turnovers forced16.9 #162
70.7 #126Defensive rebound rate73.9 #20
5.1 #326Steals per game6.6 #164
3.0 #222Blocks per game2.2 #334
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMass Lowell

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-8 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC69–91
  • Wvs UAlbany81–76
  • W@ Maine67–56
  • Lvs UMBC60–84
  • L@ Vermont64–66

A week or more of rest.

UMass

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo67–77
  • Wvs Miami OH87–83
  • Wvs Ohio94–82
  • L@ Bowling Green62–81
  • L@ Ball State73–74

A week or more of rest.