1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. STBK @ PRIN
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Stony Brook Seawolves at Princeton Tigers

Jadwin Gymnasium · at Princeton
#191STBKStony Brook
@
#135PRINPrinceton
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
STBKThis seasonPRIN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PRIN 73–68 · win probability PRIN 68%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 140.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PRIN has more of the edges

STBK 2, PRIN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
PRINBig
STBK offense vs PRIN defense
Offense 235th of 366 against a defense 115th, on the model’s ratings
STBKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: STBK 16.7%, PRIN 17.1%. Forced: STBK 17.2%, PRIN 14.2%
PRINSmall
Three-pointers
STBK hits 34.8% and allows 35.7%; PRIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.1%. Threes are 45.8% and 44.5% of their shots
PRINSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: STBK 48%, PRIN 100%. Transfers in: STBK 5, PRIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
PRINSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: STBK 28.4, PRIN 34.6. Allowed: STBK 35.4, PRIN 34.0
PRINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: STBK 28.0%, PRIN 27.2%. Defensive: STBK 67.7%, PRIN 71.5%
Context
Schedule so far
STBK has played the 204th-hardest schedule, PRIN the 137th. A record against a soft schedule means less
STBKSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: STBK 50.2 and allows 50.7; PRIN 49.6 and allows 52.0
PRINSmall
Home court
PRIN at home. This season: PRIN 0-0 at home, STBK 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: STBK plays 67.3 a game (269th fastest), PRIN 65.0 (344th). Faster games mean more points
Even
PRIN offense vs STBK defense
Offense 177th of 366 against a defense 164th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PRIN -5.3—
Total—140.3—
Projected score—STBK 67.5 · PRIN 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPRIN -3.0—
1H total65.7—
1H projected scoreSTBK 31.3 · PRIN 34.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Princeton has the better starters

Position by position: Stony Brook 1, Princeton 3, even 1
Stony BrookBetterPrinceton
G C. O'Connor8.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Hicke15.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 85
G E. Simmon6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 46
PRINSmall
G J. Stanton11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 64
F B. Ndjonga TR13.8 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 45
STBKSmall
G L. Clark6.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29
F T. Valentiny4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 18
PRINBig
G D. Davis14.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 69
F Q. Gorman3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25
PRINSmall
F M. Abdullahi9.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54
Stony BrookBetterPrinceton
STBK offense235th of 366 · -7.2
PRINSmall
PRIN defense115th of 366 · -1.5
STBK defense164th of 366 · -3.7
Even
PRIN offense177th of 366 · -5.5
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
PRINSmall
Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.4 · 3 players
PRINBig
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
Bench-0.4 · 5 players
STBKBig
Bench-4.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSTBK betterPRIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Stony Brook
Guards
C. O'Connor27 minE. Simmon17 minJ. Butler13 minM. Ugusuk11 min · TRK. Price7 min · TRL. Dagostino2 min
Forwards
B. Ndjonga33 min · TRT. Valentiny19 minQ. Gorman19 minJ. Daughtry16 min · TRE. Vatan3 min · TR
Centers
L. Van ElswykNew
Princeton
Guards
J. Hicke35 minJ. Stanton32 minL. Clark29 minD. Davis28 minS. Whitfield12 minP. Seals8 min
Forwards
M. Abdullahi29 minJ. Huggins22 minC. Happy19 minJ. Hammond7 minC. McSweeney5 minW. Kutzler1 min
Centers
W. HiggsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
STBKPRIN
Scoring
70.7 #270Points per game67.5 #324
1.05 #254Points per possession1.04 #268
67.3 #269Pace (possessions)65.0 #344
Shooting
50.2 #227Effective FG%49.6 #260
34.8 #1283-point %33.9 #177
45.8 #503-point attempt rate44.5 #78
28.4 #339Free throw rate34.6 #192
Possessions
16.7 #181Turnover rate17.1 #216
28.0 #267Offensive rebound rate27.2 #287
12.9 #216Assists per game12.5 #254
Defense
72.5 #118Points allowed72.4 #114
1.08 #168Points allowed per possession1.11 #242
50.7 #138Opponent effective FG%52.0 #209
35.7 #291Opponent 3-point %31.1 #36
17.2 #135Turnovers forced14.2 #328
67.7 #275Defensive rebound rate71.5 #82
6.3 #201Steals per game4.6 #349
3.6 #122Blocks per game2.1 #341
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stony Brook

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Campbell89–96
  • Lvs Towson57–69
  • L@ Hofstra58–67
  • L@ Monmouth69–82
  • Wvs Hampton79–72

A week or more of rest.

Princeton

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Yale53–78
  • Wvs Dartmouth82–61
  • Lvs Harvard56–58
  • L@ Brown71–80
  • Lvs Columbia65–75

A week or more of rest.