South Carolina State Bulldogs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ETPurcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC State and Notre Dame
SCST	This season	ND
0-0	Record	1-0
0-0	ATS	1-0
0-0	O/U	1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ND 89–59 · win probability ND 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ND has more of the edges

SCST 1, ND 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NDBig

SCST offense vs ND defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 63rd, on the model’s ratings

NDBig

ND offense vs SCST defense

Offense 76th of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SCST has played the 317th-hardest schedule, ND the 69th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NDBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SCST 31.4%, ND 31.2%. Defensive: SCST 62.4%, ND 73.3%

NDBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9; ND 52.3 and allows 51.8

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SCST plays 70.3 a game (102nd fastest), ND 67.7 (239th). Faster games mean more points

SCSTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SCST 20.8%, ND 16.9%. Forced: SCST 18.8%, ND 14.0%

NDSmall

Three-pointers

SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%; ND hits 35.6% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 33.3% and 43.5% of their shots

NDSmall

Home court

ND at home. This season: ND 0-0 at home, SCST 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SCST 34%, ND 38%. Transfers in: SCST 1, ND 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SCST 41.0, ND 34.1. Allowed: SCST 51.9, ND 36.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ND -30.7	—
Total	—	147.7	—
Projected score	—	SCST 58.5 · ND 89.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ND -18.1	—
1H total	69.1	—
1H projected score	SCST 25.5 · ND 43.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCST LWWWL	13-17	43%	7-12	—
ND LLWLL	15-16	48%	8-9	—

Venue/role: SCST away; ND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCST UUOOU	15-15	50%	8-22
ND OOOOO	22-9	71%	13-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ND	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ COFC	L61–88LU
Nov 20	@ CIT	W74–57WU
Nov 23	vs NCAT	L62–85LU

Notre Dame

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs FLA	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs CMU	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs STO	W89–60WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC State

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 16	vsCOPP	L 57-59	-4.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 18	vsNCCU	W 85-72	+2.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NORF	L 71-90	+10.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 25	vsMORG	L 83-90	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	@UMES	L 57-69	+5.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	@DSU	W 61-59	+3.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NCCU	W 80-64	+7.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsNORF	W 88-82	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsHOW	L 61-78	+15.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

COPP

L 57-59

−6.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+15.5

NORF

L 71-90

−8.5

MORG

L 83-90

−5.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

+5.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+23.5

NORF

W 88-82

+13.5

HOW

L 61-78

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

COPP

L 57-59

−22.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+20.5

NORF

L 71-90

+20.5

MORG

L 83-90

+19.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

−14.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+3.5

NORF

W 88-82

+25.5

HOW

L 61-78

−6.5

over 15under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Notre Dame

31 games played

Straight up

13-18

42% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-9

71% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1842%

W W W L W L W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

W W L W L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-971%

O O U U O U U U O O O O U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O O O O O

8 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 16	@OSU	L 63-64	+9.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 19	vsBELL	W 86-79	-24.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	vsKU	L 61-71	+5.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsRUTG	W 68-63	-6.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsHOU	L 56-66	+11.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsMIZ	W 76-71	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 5	@TCU	W 87-85	+6.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 10	vsIDHO	W 80-65	-11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 145
Dec 13	vsEVAN	W 82-58	-14.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 21	vsPFW	L 69-72	-11.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 141
Dec 30	@STAN	W 47-40	+6.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	@CAL	L 71-72	+3.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsCLEM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 13	vsMIA	L 69-81	+5.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 17	@VT	L 76-89	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 21	@UNC	L 69-91	+13.5	L −8.5	149.5	O 160
Jan 24	vsBC	W 68-64	-7.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 27	vsUVA	L 97-100	+9.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 197
Jan 31	@SYR	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 4	@LOU	L 65-76	+19.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 7	vsFSU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 10	@SMU	L 81-89	+10.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 170
Feb 14	vsGT	W 89-74	-5.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 21	@PITT	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 24	vsDUKE	L 56-100	+16.5	L −27.5	141.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsNCSU	W 96-90	+6.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 186
Mar 4	vsSTAN	L 78-86	+1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 164
Mar 7	@BC	L 69-77	-1.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

OSU

L 63-64

+8.5

BELL

W 86-79

−17.5

L 61-71

−4.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−1.5

HOU

L 56-66

+1.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+6.5

TCU

W 87-85

+8.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+3.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+9.5

PFW

L 69-72

−14.5

STAN

W 47-40

+13.5

CAL

L 71-72

+2.5

CLEM

L 61-76

−11.5

MIA

L 69-81

−6.5

L 76-89

−6.5

UNC

L 69-91

−8.5

W 68-64

−3.5

UVA

L 97-100

+6.5

SYR

L 72-86

−7.5

LOU

L 65-76

+8.5

FSU

L 79-82

−4.5

SMU

L 81-89

+2.5

W 89-74

+9.5

PITT

L 68-73

−1.5

DUKE

L 56-100

−27.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+12.5

STAN

L 78-86

−6.5

L 69-77

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

OSU

L 63-64

−29.5

BELL

W 86-79

+14.5

L 61-71

−11.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−9.5

HOU

L 56-66

−10.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+0.5

TCU

W 87-85

+30.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+0.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+3.5

PFW

L 69-72

−8.5

STAN

W 47-40

−56.5

CAL

L 71-72

+4.5

CLEM

L 61-76

+3.5

MIA

L 69-81

+6.5

L 76-89

+21.5

UNC

L 69-91

+10.5

W 68-64

−5.5

UVA

L 97-100

+51.5

SYR

L 72-86

+10.5

LOU

L 65-76

−14.5

FSU

L 79-82

+6.5

SMU

L 81-89

+15.5

W 89-74

+12.5

PITT

L 68-73

+0.5

DUKE

L 56-100

+14.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+32.5

STAN

L 78-86

+16.5

L 69-77

+4.5

over 22under 9avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Notre Dame has the better starters

Position by position: SC State 0, Notre Dame 4, even 1

SC StateBetterNotre Dame

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

NDBig

G B. Shrewsberry15 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 73

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

NDBig

G E. Roberts TR11 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Score 64

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

NDBig

G B. Smith TR16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 91

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

Even

G D. Brown TR6.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 43

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

NDBig

C L. Duncomb TR18.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 99

SC StateBetterNotre Dame

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

NDBig

ND defense63rd of 366 · +1.2

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

NDBig

ND offense76th of 366 · +1.1

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

NDBig

Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

NDBig

Frontcourt+7.1 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSCST betterND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

Notre Dame

Guards

B. Shrewsberry36 minE. Roberts32 min · TRB. Smith31 min · TRD. Brown24 min · TRL. Imes21 minB. Stevens2 min

Forwards

B. Koehler16 minB. Ruglass Dortch15 min · TRY. DialloNewL. DevineNew

Centers

L. Duncomb25 min · TRT. AhnemanNewG. SolongoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SCST67.4 #325

ND74.5 #180

Points per possession

SCST0.96 #353

ND1.10 #143

Pace (possessions)

SCST70.3 #102

ND67.7 #239

Shooting

Effective FG%

SCST46.8 #341

ND52.3 #133

3-point %

SCST34.0 #173

ND35.6 #82

3-point attempt rate

SCST33.3 #312

ND43.5 #101

Free throw rate

SCST41.0 #47

ND34.1 #206

Possessions

Turnover rate

SCST20.8 #355

ND16.9 #199

Offensive rebound rate

SCST31.4 #146

ND31.2 #155

Assists per game

SCST12.1 #281

ND12.3 #267

Defense

Points allowed

SCST80.6 #327

ND75.3 #197

Points allowed per possession

SCST1.15 #318

ND1.11 #255

Opponent effective FG%

SCST53.9 #296

ND51.8 #200

Opponent 3-point %

SCST33.5 #155

ND33.2 #138

Turnovers forced

SCST18.8 #59

ND14.0 #337

Defensive rebound rate

SCST62.4 #362

ND73.3 #27

Steals per game

SCST6.9 #137

ND4.5 #355

Blocks per game

SCST3.8 #98

ND2.2 #328

SCST		ND
Scoring
67.4 #325	Points per game	74.5 #180
0.96 #353	Points per possession	1.10 #143
70.3 #102	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #239
Shooting
46.8 #341	Effective FG%	52.3 #133
34.0 #173	3-point %	35.6 #82
33.3 #312	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #101
41.0 #47	Free throw rate	34.1 #206
Possessions
20.8 #355	Turnover rate	16.9 #199
31.4 #146	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #155
12.1 #281	Assists per game	12.3 #267
Defense
80.6 #327	Points allowed	75.3 #197
1.15 #318	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #255
53.9 #296	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #200
33.5 #155	Opponent 3-point %	33.2 #138
18.8 #59	Turnovers forced	14.0 #337
62.4 #362	Defensive rebound rate	73.3 #27
6.9 #137	Steals per game	4.5 #355
3.8 #98	Blocks per game	2.2 #328

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC State

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-8 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard61–78
Wvs Norfolk St88–82
W@ NC Central80–64
W@ Delaware St61–59
L@ MD Eastern57–69

A week or more of rest.

Notre Dame

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston College69–77
Lvs Stanford78–86
Wvs NC State96–90
Lvs Duke56–100
L@ Pitt68–73

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What could decide it: ND has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SC State

Notre Dame

Notre Dame has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC State

Notre Dame