South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 AM ETTD Arena · at Charleston

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC State and Charleston
SCST	This season	COFC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COFC 86–64 · win probability COFC 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COFC has more of the edges

SCST 1, COFC 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

COFCBig

COFC offense vs SCST defense

Offense 108th of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

COFCBig

SCST offense vs COFC defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 143rd, on the model’s ratings

COFCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SCST 41.0, COFC 41.2. Allowed: SCST 51.9, COFC 26.1

COFCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9; COFC 50.5 and allows 49.2

Context

Schedule so far

SCST has played the 317th-hardest schedule, COFC the 200th. A record against a soft schedule means less

COFCSmall

Home court

COFC at home. This season: COFC 0-0 at home, SCST 0-0 away

SCSTSmall

Three-pointers

SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%; COFC hits 30.6% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 33.3% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SCST plays 70.3 a game (102nd fastest), COFC 68.8 (192nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SCST 34%, COFC 21%. Transfers in: SCST 1, COFC 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SCST 31.4%, COFC 29.9%. Defensive: SCST 62.4%, COFC 67.7%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SCST 20.8%, COFC 15.7%. Forced: SCST 18.8%, COFC 14.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	COFC -21.9	—
Total	—	149.4	—
Projected score	—	SCST 63.7 · COFC 85.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COFC -12.9	—
1H total	69.8	—
1H projected score	SCST 28.5 · COFC 41.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCST LWWWL	13-17	43%	7-12	—
COFC WWWWL	18-13	58%	7-7	—

Venue/role: SCST away; COFC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCST UUOOU	15-15	50%	8-22
COFC UUOOU	13-18	42%	20-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
COFC	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ CIT	W74–57WU
Nov 23	vs NCAT	L62–85LU
Nov 28	@ DUQ	L71–96LO

Charleston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	@ DRKE	L62–71LU
Nov 24	vs UTEP	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ CLT	W74–67WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SCST 0–2 COFCCOFC leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · COFC has won the last 2 meetings · SCST 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2025-26	SCST 61 @ COFC 88	COFC -18.5	COFC W
Nov 11, 2021-22	SCST 74 @ COFC 106	COFC -18.5	COFC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC State

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 16	vsCOPP	L 57-59	-4.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 18	vsNCCU	W 85-72	+2.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NORF	L 71-90	+10.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 25	vsMORG	L 83-90	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	@UMES	L 57-69	+5.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	@DSU	W 61-59	+3.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NCCU	W 80-64	+7.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsNORF	W 88-82	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsHOW	L 61-78	+15.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

COPP

L 57-59

−6.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+15.5

NORF

L 71-90

−8.5

MORG

L 83-90

−5.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

+5.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+23.5

NORF

W 88-82

+13.5

HOW

L 61-78

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

COPP

L 57-59

−22.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+20.5

NORF

L 71-90

+20.5

MORG

L 83-90

+19.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

−14.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+3.5

NORF

W 88-82

+25.5

HOW

L 61-78

−6.5

over 15under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Charleston

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

L L W L W L W L L W W W W W W W L L W W W W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L L W L W L W L W W L W L W W L L L W W W W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1842%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U U O U U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@LIB	L 75-90	+9.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsFAU	L 77-94	+5.5	L −11.5	156.5	O 171
Nov 14	vsSCST	W 88-61	-18.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 17	vsDRKE	L 62-71	-7.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 133
Nov 21	vsMASS	W 69-65	-3.5	W +0.5	161.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsYALE	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 137
Nov 24	vsEVAN	W 78-59	-4.5	W +14.5	141.5	U 137
Nov 30	vsBEL	L 73-96	+2.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 169
Dec 10	@USF	L 75-81	+13.5	W +7.5	160.5	U 156
Dec 14	vsCLT	W 74-67	-5.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 141
Dec 17	vsCIT	W 82-78	-17.5	L −13.5	146.5	O 160
Dec 21	@NKU	W 85-74	+5.5	W +16.5	153.5	O 159
Dec 29	vsDREX	W 72-63	-9.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 135
Dec 31	@ELON	W 85-81	+2.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 166
Jan 5	vsW&M	W 88-79	-2.5	W +6.5	165.5	O 167
Jan 10	vsHAMP	W 74-70	-9.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 144
Jan 15	@TOW	L 52-61	+3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 17	@STBK	L 106-112	-4.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 218
Jan 22	vsCAM	W 87-83	-3.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsELON	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 150
Jan 29	@HOF	W 66-64	+2.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 31	@NE	W 89-84	-3.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 173
Feb 5	vsNCAT	W 78-62	-11.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 140
Feb 9	vsUNCW	L 64-76	-1.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 12	vsHOF	L 62-66	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 15	@CAM	W 62-57	+3.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 119
Feb 19	@NCAT	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 135
Feb 21	vsMONM	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 26	@HAMP	W 85-71	-5.5	W +8.5	139.5	O 156
Mar 1	@UNCW	W 79-76	+5.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 8	vsTOW	L 56-81	-3.5	L −28.5	138.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

−5.5

FAU

L 77-94

−11.5

SCST

W 88-61

+8.5

DRKE

L 62-71

−16.5

MASS

W 69-65

+0.5

YALE

L 63-74

−4.5

EVAN

W 78-59

+14.5

BEL

L 73-96

−20.5

USF

L 75-81

+7.5

CLT

W 74-67

+1.5

CIT

W 82-78

−13.5

NKU

W 85-74

+16.5

DREX

W 72-63

−0.5

ELON

W 85-81

+6.5

W&M

W 88-79

+6.5

HAMP

W 74-70

−5.5

TOW

L 52-61

−5.5

STBK

L 106-112

−10.5

CAM

W 87-83

+0.5

ELON

W 80-70

+6.5

HOF

W 66-64

+4.5

W 89-84

+1.5

NCAT

W 78-62

+4.5

UNCW

L 64-76

−13.5

HOF

L 62-66

−5.5

CAM

W 62-57

+8.5

NCAT

W 74-61

+8.5

MONM

W 74-63

+6.5

HAMP

W 85-71

+8.5

UNCW

W 79-76

+8.5

TOW

L 56-81

−28.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

+19.5

FAU

L 77-94

+14.5

SCST

W 88-61

−7.5

DRKE

L 62-71

−20.5

MASS

W 69-65

−27.5

YALE

L 63-74

−11.5

EVAN

W 78-59

−4.5

BEL

L 73-96

+16.5

USF

L 75-81

−4.5

CLT

W 74-67

+0.5

CIT

W 82-78

+13.5

NKU

W 85-74

+5.5

DREX

W 72-63

−7.5

ELON

W 85-81

+10.5

W&M

W 88-79

+1.5

HAMP

W 74-70

−1.5

TOW

L 52-61

−30.5

STBK

L 106-112

+75.5

CAM

W 87-83

+9.5

ELON

W 80-70

−9.5

HOF

W 66-64

−18.5

W 89-84

+11.5

NCAT

W 78-62

−15.5

UNCW

L 64-76

−8.5

HOF

L 62-66

−18.5

CAM

W 62-57

−40.5

NCAT

W 74-61

−12.5

MONM

W 74-63

−12.5

HAMP

W 85-71

+16.5

UNCW

W 79-76

+8.5

TOW

L 56-81

−1.5

over 13under 18avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Charleston has the better starters

Position by position: SC State 1, Charleston 4, even 0

SC StateBetterCharleston

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

COFCBig

G T. Johnson TR19.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 5 ast Score 96

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

COFCBig

G B. Bradford TR13.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 77

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

COFCBig

G E. Ellis TR8.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 61

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

SCSTSmall

G M. Kalu8.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 33

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

COFCBig

G X. Abreu TR12.6 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 83

SC StateBetterCharleston

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

COFCBig

COFC defense143rd of 366 · -3.1

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

COFCBig

COFC offense108th of 366 · -1.6

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

COFCBig

Backcourt+5.0 · 5 players

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-2.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSCST betterCOFC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

Charleston

Guards

T. Johnson32 min · TRB. Bradford28 min · TRE. Ellis27 min · TRM. Kalu27 minX. Abreu21 min · TRM. Green15 min · TR

Forwards

T. Scott21 min · TRW. Mortimore9 minN. VirginioNew

Centers

B. Pierce7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SCST67.4 #325

COFC75.3 #157

Points per possession

SCST0.96 #353

COFC1.09 #155

Pace (possessions)

SCST70.3 #102

COFC68.8 #192

Shooting

Effective FG%

SCST46.8 #341

COFC50.5 #212

3-point %

SCST34.0 #173

COFC30.6 #331

3-point attempt rate

SCST33.3 #312

COFC38.1 #213

Free throw rate

SCST41.0 #47

COFC41.2 #43

Possessions

Turnover rate

SCST20.8 #355

COFC15.7 #118

Offensive rebound rate

SCST31.4 #146

COFC29.9 #204

Assists per game

SCST12.1 #281

COFC13.5 #180

Defense

Points allowed

SCST80.6 #327

COFC73.9 #153

Points allowed per possession

SCST1.15 #318

COFC1.08 #146

Opponent effective FG%

SCST53.9 #296

COFC49.2 #74

Opponent 3-point %

SCST33.5 #155

COFC32.6 #90

Turnovers forced

SCST18.8 #59

COFC14.8 #308

Defensive rebound rate

SCST62.4 #362

COFC67.7 #273

Steals per game

SCST6.9 #137

COFC5.7 #280

Blocks per game

SCST3.8 #98

COFC4.6 #29

SCST		COFC
Scoring
67.4 #325	Points per game	75.3 #157
0.96 #353	Points per possession	1.09 #155
70.3 #102	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #192
Shooting
46.8 #341	Effective FG%	50.5 #212
34.0 #173	3-point %	30.6 #331
33.3 #312	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #213
41.0 #47	Free throw rate	41.2 #43
Possessions
20.8 #355	Turnover rate	15.7 #118
31.4 #146	Offensive rebound rate	29.9 #204
12.1 #281	Assists per game	13.5 #180
Defense
80.6 #327	Points allowed	73.9 #153
1.15 #318	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #146
53.9 #296	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #74
33.5 #155	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #90
18.8 #59	Turnovers forced	14.8 #308
62.4 #362	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #273
6.9 #137	Steals per game	5.7 #280
3.8 #98	Blocks per game	4.6 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC State

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-8 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard61–78
Wvs Norfolk St88–82
W@ NC Central80–64
W@ Delaware St61–59
L@ MD Eastern57–69

A week or more of rest.

Charleston

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Towson56–81
W@ UNC Wilmington79–76
W@ Hampton85–71
Wvs Monmouth74–63
W@ NC A&T74–61

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Cougars

What could decide it: COFC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC State

Charleston

Charleston has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC State

Charleston