Old Dominion Monarchs at Norfolk State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ETJoseph G. Echols Hall · at Norfolk St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Old Dominion and Norfolk St
ODU	This season	NORF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ODU 75–72 · win probability ODU 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ODU has more of the edges

ODU 5, NORF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

ODU has played the 188th-hardest schedule, NORF the 343rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

ODUSmall

NORF offense vs ODU defense

Offense 314th of 366 against a defense 222nd, on the model’s ratings

NORFSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ODU 34.7, NORF 43.5. Allowed: ODU 42.0, NORF 45.3

ODUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ODU 50.6 and allows 50.8; NORF 49.3 and allows 51.7

ODUSmall

ODU offense vs NORF defense

Offense 240th of 366 against a defense 301st, on the model’s ratings

NORFSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ODU 26.0%, NORF 32.5%. Defensive: ODU 69.7%, NORF 67.7%

NORFSmall

Home court

NORF at home. This season: NORF 0-0 at home, ODU 0-0 away

ODUSmall

Three-pointers

ODU hits 36.0% and allows 32.0%; NORF hits 34.2% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 36.2% and 30.6% of their shots

ODUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ODU 34%, NORF 8%. Transfers in: ODU 4, NORF 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: ODU plays 70.8 a game (81st fastest), NORF 69.1 (172nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ODU 15.4%, NORF 18.7%. Forced: ODU 14.5%, NORF 18.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ODU -2.7	—
Total	—	147.1	—
Projected score	—	ODU 74.9 · NORF 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ODU -1.7	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	ODU 35.3 · NORF 33.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU LLWLL	16-16	50%	10-8	—
NORF WWLLL	13-15	46%	4-5	—

Venue/role: ODU away; NORF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU OOOOO	21-11	66%	11-21
NORF OOOOO	18-10	64%	11-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
NORF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Old Dominion

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs LONG	W62–61LU
Nov 17	@ UVA	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs HAMP	No recent meeting

Norfolk St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ GAST	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ GT	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs UNCW	W74–69WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ODU 2–0 NORFODU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · ODU has won the last 2 meetings · ODU 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	NORF 57 @ ODU 60	ODU -8.5	NORF W
Dec 3, 2022-23	NORF 62 @ ODU 68	ODU -7.5	NORF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Old Dominion

32 games played

Straight up

11-21

34% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2134%

L W L L W L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L L L W L W L W W W L L L L W W W W L W L L W W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O U O O U O O U O U U O U O O U U O O O U O O U O U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@M-OH	L 72-87	+16.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsNORF	W 60-57	-8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 15	@GW	L 73-96	+15.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 18	@XAV	L 69-99	+10.5	L −19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsMORG	W 88-56	-11.5	W +20.5	156.5	U 144
Nov 23	@DREX	L 71-75	+3.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 25	@VILL	L 75-89	+22.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 164
Nov 30	@W&M	L 75-88	+8.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 163
Dec 6	@RICH	L 77-86	+12.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	@GMU	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 134
Dec 17	vsJMU	W 77-68	+2.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 20	vsCCU	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 28	@MD	L 58-73	+14.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 131
Dec 31	vsAPP	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 154
Jan 3	vsGASO	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 179
Jan 8	@CCU	W 70-66	+4.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 10	@JMU	L 69-70	+6.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 15	@GASO	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	162.5	O 171
Jan 17	@APP	W 75-73	+7.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 21	vsTROY	L 77-83	+5.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 28	@ARST	W 75-71	+9.5	W +13.5	159.5	U 146
Jan 31	@TXST	L 64-81	+2.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 145
Feb 4	vsULM	L 79-85	-14.5	L −20.5	154.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsOHIO	W 78-72	+3.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 11	vsMRSH	L 79-81	+3.5	W +1.5	155.5	O 160
Feb 14	vsGAST	W 78-55	-3.5	W +19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 16	vsUL	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 21	@USM	L 81-86	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 24	@MRSH	L 88-97	+7.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 185
Feb 27	@GAST	W 81-73	-1.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsULM	W 87-80	-9.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 167
Mar 4	vsGASO	L 84-88	+2.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+1.5

NORF

W 60-57

−5.5

L 73-96

−7.5

XAV

L 69-99

−19.5

MORG

W 88-56

+20.5

DREX

L 71-75

−0.5

VILL

L 75-89

+8.5

W&M

L 75-88

−4.5

RICH

L 77-86

+3.5

GMU

L 61-73

+4.5

JMU

W 77-68

+11.5

CCU

L 74-76

−5.5

L 58-73

−0.5

APP

L 73-81

−9.5

GASO

L 86-93

−5.5

CCU

W 70-66

+8.5

JMU

L 69-70

+5.5

GASO

L 84-87

+2.5

APP

W 75-73

+9.5

TROY

L 77-83

−0.5

ARST

W 75-71

+13.5

TXST

L 64-81

−14.5

ULM

L 79-85

−20.5

OHIO

W 78-72

+9.5

MRSH

L 79-81

+1.5

GAST

W 78-55

+19.5

W 83-72

+4.5

USM

L 81-86

−0.5

MRSH

L 88-97

−1.5

GAST

W 81-73

+6.5

ULM

W 87-80

−2.5

GASO

L 84-88

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+5.5

NORF

W 60-57

−32.5

L 73-96

+13.5

XAV

L 69-99

+17.5

MORG

W 88-56

−12.5

DREX

L 71-75

+3.5

VILL

L 75-89

+16.5

W&M

L 75-88

−0.5

RICH

L 77-86

+9.5

GMU

L 61-73

−10.5

JMU

W 77-68

−3.5

CCU

L 74-76

+2.5

L 58-73

−23.5

APP

L 73-81

+17.5

GASO

L 86-93

+17.5

CCU

W 70-66

−15.5

JMU

L 69-70

−8.5

GASO

L 84-87

+8.5

APP

W 75-73

+7.5

TROY

L 77-83

+7.5

ARST

W 75-71

−13.5

TXST

L 64-81

+1.5

ULM

L 79-85

+9.5

OHIO

W 78-72

−6.5

MRSH

L 79-81

+4.5

GAST

W 78-55

−14.5

W 83-72

+19.5

USM

L 81-86

+19.5

MRSH

L 88-97

+25.5

GAST

W 81-73

+4.5

ULM

W 87-80

+9.5

GASO

L 84-88

+14.5

over 21under 11avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Norfolk St

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-10

64% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W L L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

L W W L W L W L L W W L L L L L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1064%

O U U U O O U O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsW&M	L 78-81	+2.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@ODU	L 57-60	+8.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 14	@TOW	L 41-51	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 21	vsHAMP	W 62-60	-2.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 122
Nov 23	@WYO	L 67-75	+15.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 29	@ARIZ	L 61-98	+35.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	@JMU	L 67-68	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 10	@BAY	L 67-97	+26.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsGRAM	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	135.5	O 148
Dec 19	vsJKST	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 21	@UTEP	W 72-71	+10.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsUCI	L 70-89	+11.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 159
Dec 28	@UL	L 54-63	+3.5	L −5.5	126.5	U 117
Jan 3	@NCCU	L 67-69	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@DSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	vsUMES	L 70-74	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	O 144
Jan 17	@SCST	W 89-82	-5.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 24	vsCOPP	W 103-76	-13.5	W +13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 26	vsMORG	L 78-79	-7.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@HOW	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsNCCU	W 75-68	-4.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsDSU	W 75-58	-9.5	W +7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	@UMES	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsSCST	W 90-71	-10.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 28	@COPP	W 75-69	-5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@MORG	L 84-90	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsHOW	L 76-84	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsSCST	L 82-88	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

−0.5

ODU

L 57-60

+5.5

TOW

L 41-51

+3.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−0.5

WYO

L 67-75

+7.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

−1.5

JMU

L 67-68

+9.5

BAY

L 67-97

−3.5

GRAM

L 68-80

−13.5

JKST

W 82-72

+4.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+11.5

UCI

L 70-89

−7.5

L 54-63

−5.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−3.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

−9.5

SCST

W 89-82

+1.5

COPP

W 103-76

+13.5

MORG

L 78-79

−8.5

HOW

L 60-88

−20.5

NCCU

W 75-68

+2.5

DSU

W 75-58

+7.5

UMES

W 70-66

+2.5

SCST

W 90-71

+8.5

COPP

W 75-69

+0.5

MORG

L 84-90

−9.5

HOW

L 76-84

−1.5

SCST

L 82-88

−13.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

+0.5

ODU

L 57-60

−32.5

TOW

L 41-51

−46.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−11.5

WYO

L 67-75

+0.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

+12.5

JMU

L 67-68

−3.5

BAY

L 67-97

+15.5

GRAM

L 68-80

+12.5

JKST

W 82-72

+13.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+6.5

UCI

L 70-89

+22.5

L 54-63

−9.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−5.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

+11.5

SCST

W 89-82

+31.5

COPP

W 103-76

+35.5

MORG

L 78-79

+4.5

HOW

L 60-88

+1.5

NCCU

W 75-68

−5.5

DSU

W 75-58

−1.5

UMES

W 70-66

−0.5

SCST

W 90-71

+20.5

COPP

W 75-69

+3.5

MORG

L 84-90

+17.5

HOW

L 76-84

+10.5

SCST

L 82-88

+25.5

over 18under 10avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Old Dominion 2, Norfolk St 2, even 1

Old DominionBetterNorfolk St

G B. Benjamin TR5.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

NORFSmall

G B. Laster TR6.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 51

G Z. Wiggins6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 46

ODUSmall

G A. Newton3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12

G S. Hubbard3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 10

Even

F J. Gupton TR7.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22

F Z. Weluche-Ume TR11.1 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

ODUSmall

F B. Gardner TR3.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

F J. Turner6.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30

NORFSmall

F J. Riley TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 56

Old DominionBetterNorfolk St

ODU offense240th of 366 · -7.3

ODUSmall

NORF defense301st of 366 · -7.7

ODU defense222nd of 366 · -5.8

ODUSmall

NORF offense314th of 366 · -10.1

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

NORFSmall

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.9 · 2 players

ODUSmall

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

Bench-3.2 · 5 players

NORFBig

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestODU betterNORF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Old Dominion

Guards

B. Benjamin20 min · TRZ. Wiggins18 minS. Hubbard16 minK. Thurmon11 min · TRC. Parker3 minR. Hellams2 min

Forwards

Z. Weluche-Ume31 min · TRJ. Turner21 minK. Howze10 min · TRB. Nacey8 minJ. NwekeNewL. MartiniNew

Norfolk St

Guards

B. Laster19 min · TRA. Newton16 minA. Torrence1 minC. WalkerNewD. CamaraNewJ. SkyersNew

Forwards

J. Gupton25 min · TRB. Gardner16 min · TRJ. Riley11 min · TRM. MitchellNew

Centers

J. JordanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ODU75.7 #150

NORF71.6 #257

Points per possession

ODU1.06 #217

NORF1.04 #274

Pace (possessions)

ODU70.8 #81

NORF69.1 #172

Shooting

Effective FG%

ODU50.6 #203

NORF49.3 #277

3-point %

ODU36.0 #60

NORF34.2 #157

3-point attempt rate

ODU36.2 #245

NORF30.6 #347

Free throw rate

ODU34.7 #189

NORF43.5 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

ODU15.4 #95

NORF18.7 #311

Offensive rebound rate

ODU26.0 #323

NORF32.5 #108

Assists per game

ODU12.9 #218

NORF11.3 #326

Defense

Points allowed

ODU78.7 #283

NORF74.7 #181

Points allowed per possession

ODU1.12 #263

NORF1.08 #160

Opponent effective FG%

ODU50.8 #145

NORF51.7 #196

Opponent 3-point %

ODU32.0 #62

NORF32.0 #61

Turnovers forced

ODU14.5 #321

NORF18.8 #58

Defensive rebound rate

ODU69.7 #176

NORF67.7 #270

Steals per game

ODU5.7 #275

NORF6.5 #180

Blocks per game

ODU3.1 #208

NORF2.8 #264

ODU		NORF
Scoring
75.7 #150	Points per game	71.6 #257
1.06 #217	Points per possession	1.04 #274
70.8 #81	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #172
Shooting
50.6 #203	Effective FG%	49.3 #277
36.0 #60	3-point %	34.2 #157
36.2 #245	3-point attempt rate	30.6 #347
34.7 #189	Free throw rate	43.5 #13
Possessions
15.4 #95	Turnover rate	18.7 #311
26.0 #323	Offensive rebound rate	32.5 #108
12.9 #218	Assists per game	11.3 #326
Defense
78.7 #283	Points allowed	74.7 #181
1.12 #263	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #160
50.8 #145	Opponent effective FG%	51.7 #196
32.0 #62	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #61
14.5 #321	Turnovers forced	18.8 #58
69.7 #176	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #270
5.7 #275	Steals per game	6.5 #180
3.1 #208	Blocks per game	2.8 #264

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Old Dominion

11-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern84–88
Wvs UL Monroe87–80
W@ Georgia St81–73
L@ Marshall88–97
L@ Southern Miss81–86

A week or more of rest.

Norfolk St

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SC State82–88
Lvs Howard76–84
L@ Morgan St84–90
W@ Coppin St75–69
Wvs SC State90–71

A week or more of rest.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Norfolk State Spartans

What could decide it: ODU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Old Dominion

Norfolk St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Old Dominion

Norfolk St