1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 8
  3. ARK vs UVA
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 8

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Virginia Cavaliers

Capital One Arena · Neutral site
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
vs
#20UVAVirginia AP #9
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ARKThis seasonUVA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 81–80 · win probability UVA 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 160.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

ARK 2, UVA 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ARK plays 73.8 a game (12th fastest), UVA 67.6 (247th). Faster games mean more points
UVASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARK 32.0%, UVA 37.9%. Defensive: ARK 69.1%, UVA 70.8%
UVASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8; UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8
ARKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARK 12.2%, UVA 16.0%. Forced: ARK 15.5%, UVA 15.4%
ARKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARK 35.9, UVA 32.3. Allowed: ARK 31.2, UVA 32.9
UVASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARK 19%, UVA 57%. Transfers in: ARK 2, UVA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
ARK has played the 8th-hardest schedule, UVA the 68th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
UVA offense vs ARK defense
Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%; UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 33.0% and 46.7% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
ARK offense vs UVA defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVA -1.1—
Total—160.1—
Projected score—ARK 79.5 · UVA 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVA -0.5—
1H total74.8—
1H projected scoreARK 37.1 · UVA 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: Arkansas 1, Virginia 0, even 4
ArkansasBetterVirginia
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
Even
G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
ARKSmall
G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
Even
G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
ArkansasBetterVirginia
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Even
UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
Even
UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
ARKSmall
Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
UVABig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestARK betterUVA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
Virginia
Guards
J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min
Forwards
T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew
Centers
J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARKUVA
Scoring
90.2 #2Points per game80.4 #57
1.23 #3Points per possession1.19 #21
73.8 #12Pace (possessions)67.6 #247
Shooting
56.4 #16Effective FG%54.6 #49
38.2 #163-point %36.3 #48
33.0 #3153-point attempt rate46.7 #36
35.9 #155Free throw rate32.3 #253
Possessions
12.2 #1Turnover rate16.0 #141
32.0 #121Offensive rebound rate37.9 #9
17.2 #20Assists per game16.3 #41
Defense
81.0 #333Points allowed68.8 #46
1.09 #213Points allowed per possession1.02 #39
51.8 #201Opponent effective FG%45.8 #8
31.8 #54Opponent 3-point %31.6 #46
15.5 #246Turnovers forced15.4 #256
69.1 #197Defensive rebound rate70.8 #120
7.3 #96Steals per game6.3 #199
5.2 #12Blocks per game6.4 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee72–79
  • Wvs Wright St82–73
  • Lvs Duke70–74
  • Wvs Miami84–62
  • Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.