1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. RMU @ ARK
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Robert Morris Colonials at Arkansas Razorbacks

Bud Walton Arena · at Arkansas
#168RMURobert Morris
@
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RMUThis seasonARK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARK 92–67 · win probability ARK 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 158.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARK has more of the edges

RMU 1, ARK 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
RMU has played the 280th-hardest schedule, ARK the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: RMU 28.0, ARK 35.9. Allowed: RMU 40.1, ARK 31.2
ARKBig
ARK offense vs RMU defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 183rd, on the model’s ratings
ARKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RMU 18.6%, ARK 12.2%. Forced: RMU 15.8%, ARK 15.5%
ARKBig
RMU offense vs ARK defense
Offense 179th of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: RMU plays 67.5 a game (256th fastest), ARK 73.8 (12th). Faster games mean more points
RMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RMU 37.5%, ARK 32.0%. Defensive: RMU 71.2%, ARK 69.1%
ARKSmall
Home court
ARK at home. This season: ARK 0-0 at home, RMU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
RMU hits 38.0% and allows 33.2%; ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 40.7% and 33.0% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: RMU 54.9 and allows 50.0; ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RMU 32%, ARK 19%. Transfers in: RMU 4, ARK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARK -24.9—
Total—158.9—
Projected score—RMU 67 · ARK 91.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARK -14.7—
1H total74.2—
1H projected scoreRMU 29.8 · ARK 44.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: Robert Morris 0, Arkansas 2, even 3
Robert MorrisBetterArkansas
G A. Valentine TR12 pts · 4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 71
Even
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
G D. Livingston9.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23
ARKBig
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
G T. Smith6.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30
No call
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
F J. Dunkley TR12.4 pts · 6.7 reb · 1 ast Score 74
ARKSmall
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
F K. Ugwuakazi TR5.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 63
No call
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
Robert MorrisBetterArkansas
RMU offense179th of 366 · -5.5
ARKBig
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
RMU defense183rd of 366 · -4.2
ARKBig
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Backcourt-2.8 · 3 players
ARKBig
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players
ARKSmall
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Bench-0.3 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestRMU betterARK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Robert Morris
Guards
A. Valentine33 min · TRD. Livingston26 minT. Smith19 minK. Garris16 min · TRE. Cooke9 minL. SloaneNew
Forwards
J. Dunkley29 min · TRK. Ugwuakazi19 min · TRS. Obenjo9 minD. StolbetskiyNewB. OderinloNew
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RMUARK
Scoring
76.8 #122Points per game90.2 #2
1.14 #67Points per possession1.23 #3
67.5 #256Pace (possessions)73.8 #12
Shooting
54.9 #39Effective FG%56.4 #16
38.0 #183-point %38.2 #16
40.7 #1543-point attempt rate33.0 #315
28.0 #343Free throw rate35.9 #155
Possessions
18.6 #305Turnover rate12.2 #1
37.5 #11Offensive rebound rate32.0 #121
17.6 #13Assists per game17.2 #20
Defense
73.4 #139Points allowed81.0 #333
1.08 #174Points allowed per possession1.09 #213
50.0 #100Opponent effective FG%51.8 #201
33.2 #135Opponent 3-point %31.8 #54
15.8 #230Turnovers forced15.5 #246
71.2 #98Defensive rebound rate69.1 #197
5.5 #292Steals per game7.3 #96
2.5 #308Blocks per game5.2 #12
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Robert Morris

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Detroit Mercy64–70
  • Wvs Youngstown St68–53
  • Wvs Cleveland St83–64
  • Wvs Detroit Mercy73–62
  • W@ Wright St81–68

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.