1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. VAL @ SDST
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Valparaiso Beacons at South Dakota State Jackrabbits

First Bank & Trust Arena · at S Dakota St
#176VALValparaiso
@
#201SDSTS Dakota St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VALThis seasonSDST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDST 74–73 · win probability SDST 51%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAL has more of the edges

VAL 3, SDST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
VAL has played the 143rd-hardest schedule, SDST the 271st. A record against a soft schedule means less
VALBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: VAL 39.1, SDST 29.7. Allowed: VAL 35.1, SDST 34.5
VALSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VAL 15.7%, SDST 16.2%. Forced: VAL 16.9%, SDST 14.5%
VALSmall
Three-pointers
VAL hits 33.9% and allows 32.1%; SDST hits 34.0% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 36.8% and 38.8% of their shots
SDSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: VAL 47.6 and allows 50.5; SDST 52.0 and allows 51.8
SDSTSmall
Home court
SDST at home. This season: SDST 0-0 at home, VAL 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VAL 32.5%, SDST 30.3%. Defensive: VAL 69.9%, SDST 74.9%
Even
VAL offense vs SDST defense
Offense 199th of 366 against a defense 221st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: VAL plays 67.4 a game (258th fastest), SDST 68.2 (220th). Faster games mean more points
Even
SDST offense vs VAL defense
Offense 185th of 366 against a defense 170th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VAL 51%, SDST 51%. Transfers in: VAL 2, SDST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SDST -0.4—
Total—146.8—
Projected score—VAL 73.2 · SDST 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSDST -0.1—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreVAL 34.3 · SDST 34.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Valparaiso has the better starters

Position by position: Valparaiso 2, S Dakota St 1, even 2
ValparaisoBetterS Dakota St
G R. Chaney10.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 62
Even
G J. Sayler14.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 54
G B. Alocen TR6.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 34
SDSTSmall
G K. Garry10.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 49
G J. McNair7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 65
VALBig
G E. Ryans TR7.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 12
F J. Pettigrew12.6 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 70
VALSmall
F M. Thompson TR10.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 38
F C. Hopoi3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23
Even
C A. Squires4.4 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 29
ValparaisoBetterS Dakota St
VAL offense199th of 366 · -6.1
Even
SDST defense221st of 366 · -5.7
VAL defense170th of 366 · -3.9
Even
SDST offense185th of 366 · -5.7
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
VALBig
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players
VALSmall
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestVAL betterSDST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Valparaiso
Guards
R. Chaney29 minB. Alocen22 min · TRJ. McNair18 minS. Servilus10 minN. Lombardi1 minC. Webster1 min
Forwards
J. Pettigrew28 minC. Hopoi15 minK. WalkerNewG. RichardsonNewH. ScrogginsNew
Centers
K. Yu8 min · TR
S Dakota St
Guards
J. Sayler33 minK. Garry30 minE. Ryans27 min · TRT. Buchanan13 minJ. Rogers9 minJ. Cascio Jensen2 min
Forwards
M. Thompson29 min · TRJ. Mekonnen4 min · TRJ. Van KalsbeekNewD. KernNewY. YatabareNewB. EllweinNew
Centers
A. Squires14 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VALSDST
Scoring
71.2 #263Points per game74.4 #182
1.06 #233Points per possession1.09 #150
67.4 #258Pace (possessions)68.2 #220
Shooting
47.6 #322Effective FG%52.0 #143
33.9 #1803-point %34.0 #174
36.8 #2343-point attempt rate38.8 #193
39.1 #79Free throw rate29.7 #317
Possessions
15.7 #116Turnover rate16.2 #150
32.5 #110Offensive rebound rate30.3 #186
11.7 #307Assists per game13.8 #160
Defense
71.9 #103Points allowed74.5 #177
1.06 #116Points allowed per possession1.09 #198
50.5 #130Opponent effective FG%51.8 #204
32.1 #70Opponent 3-point %34.1 #191
16.9 #161Turnovers forced14.5 #323
69.9 #167Defensive rebound rate74.9 #9
5.9 #245Steals per game5.5 #291
3.6 #124Blocks per game2.2 #336
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Valparaiso

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bradley84–90
  • Wvs Indiana St63–62
  • L@ Evansville79–80
  • Wvs Drake74–71
  • W@ UIC71–67

A week or more of rest.

S Dakota St

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St Thomas67–80
  • L@ South Dakota70–75
  • W@ Kansas City73–59
  • Wvs North Dakota91–83
  • Lvs N Dakota St66–74

A week or more of rest.