Jackson State Tigers at Southern Miss Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ETReed Green Coliseum · at Southern Miss

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jackson St and Southern Miss
JKST	This season	USM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USM 81–72 · win probability USM 78%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USM has more of the edges

JKST 1, USM 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

USMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JKST 29.7%, USM 32.5%. Defensive: JKST 62.8%, USM 71.2%

USMBig

USM offense vs JKST defense

Offense 203rd of 366 against a defense 325th, on the model’s ratings

JKSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JKST 76%, USM 23%. Transfers in: JKST 2, USM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

USMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: JKST 45.7 and allows 53.0; USM 49.0 and allows 51.4

USMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JKST 19.4%, USM 18.4%. Forced: JKST 16.5%, USM 17.8%

Context

Schedule so far

JKST has played the 239th-hardest schedule, USM the 184th. A record against a soft schedule means less

USMSmall

Home court

USM at home. This season: USM 0-0 at home, JKST 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: JKST 37.4, USM 43.2. Allowed: JKST 41.9, USM 43.6

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: JKST plays 71.6 a game (50th fastest), USM 70.1 (113th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

JKST hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; USM hits 28.9% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 43.3% and 28.7% of their shots

Even

JKST offense vs USM defense

Offense 229th of 366 against a defense 239th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	USM -8.7	—
Total	—	152.8	—
Projected score	—	JKST 72 · USM 80.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USM -5.0	—
1H total	71.4	—
1H projected score	JKST 33.2 · USM 38.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LWLWL	14-19	42%	6-13	—
USM WWWWL	17-16	52%	5-6	—

Venue/role: JKST away; USM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST UOOUU	16-17	48%	12-21
USM UOOOO	20-13	61%	17-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
USM	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jackson St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ WIN	L62–80LU
Nov 18	@ BAY	No recent meeting
Nov 25	@ OKST	No recent meeting

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ TXST	W81–77WO
Nov 17	vs UTA	No recent meeting
Nov 19	@ GRAM	W68–60LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

33 games played

Straight up

12-21

36% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2136%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L W W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

O O U O O U U O U U O O O O U O U O U U U O O U U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 23	vsWIN	L 62-80	+10.5	L −7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 28	@UL	W 51-45	+5.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 2	@KENN	L 73-88	+15.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 10	@HOU	L 38-80	+40.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	@NU	L 53-93	+30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsHAMP	L 77-84	+8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 161
Dec 19	vsNORF	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 29	@TCU	L 64-115	+30.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsALCN	W 89-86	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@ALST	W 75-64	+7.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	@AAMU	L 91-100	+6.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 17	vsPV	W 82-78	-1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 19	vsTXSO	W 94-89	-2.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	@BCU	L 48-85	+8.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 133
Jan 26	@FAMU	W 66-65	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsGRAM	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 135
Feb 2	vsSOU	L 91-96	+5.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 187
Feb 7	@MVSU	W 97-81	-8.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	@UAPB	L 63-84	+7.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 147
Feb 14	vsFAMU	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsBCU	W 91-86	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 21	@ALCN	L 65-83	-1.5	L −19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@PV	L 76-85	+3.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 161
Feb 28	@TXSO	L 57-82	+6.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsUAPB	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsMVSU	W 85-77	-11.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 10	vsGRAM	W 68-65	+7.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsFAMU	L 60-70	+6.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

WIN

L 62-80

−7.5

W 51-45

+11.5

KENN

L 73-88

+0.5

HOU

L 38-80

−1.5

L 53-93

−9.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+1.5

NORF

L 72-82

−4.5

TCU

L 64-115

−20.5

ALCN

W 89-86

−2.5

ALST

W 75-64

+18.5

AAMU

L 91-100

−2.5

W 82-78

+2.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+2.5

BCU

L 48-85

−28.5

FAMU

W 66-65

+8.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−0.5

SOU

L 91-96

+0.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+7.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−13.5

FAMU

W 80-60

+22.5

BCU

W 91-86

+9.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−19.5

L 76-85

−5.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−18.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+4.5

MVSU

W 85-77

−3.5

GRAM

W 68-65

+10.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

WIN

L 62-80

−21.5

W 51-45

−40.5

KENN

L 73-88

+3.5

HOU

L 38-80

−19.5

L 53-93

−0.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+25.5

NORF

L 72-82

+13.5

TCU

L 64-115

+35.5

ALCN

W 89-86

+29.5

ALST

W 75-64

−14.5

AAMU

L 91-100

+50.5

W 82-78

−0.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+29.5

BCU

L 48-85

−23.5

FAMU

W 66-65

−19.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−13.5

SOU

L 91-96

+34.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+34.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−8.5

FAMU

W 80-60

−4.5

BCU

W 91-86

+26.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−1.5

L 76-85

−0.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−13.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+5.5

MVSU

W 85-77

+17.5

GRAM

W 68-65

−6.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−11.5

over 16under 17avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Southern Miss

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

L L L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L L W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1361%

O O U O U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U O U U O U O U O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUF	L 79-85	+3.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 9	@SC	L 79-83	+17.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 13	@GRAM	L 70-75	+2.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsUNF	W 92-83	-9.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 175
Nov 23	vsUTM	W 70-60	+1.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 3	@RAD	W 82-75	+3.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 6	@MIA	L 64-88	+19.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Dec 8	vsGRAM	W 68-60	-8.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsMISS	L 67-71	+12.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsUL	W 62-54	-11.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsARST	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 179
Dec 29	@LSU	L 62-90	+21.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 1	@ULM	W 87-73	-9.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	@UL	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsTXST	W 80-70	-2.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsULM	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 14	@TROY	L 65-91	+8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 156
Jan 17	@TXST	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 141
Jan 22	@GAST	L 62-69	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	@CCU	L 67-85	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsAPP	L 63-70	+1.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsJMU	W 73-65	-1.5	W +6.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 4	@MRSH	L 77-81	+10.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 7	vsKENT	W 66-65	+4.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 12	vsUSA	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	135.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsTROY	W 69-65	+5.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsODU	W 86-81	-4.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 24	@ARST	L 84-89	+9.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 173
Feb 27	@USA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 123
Mar 5	vsJMU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsTXST	W 81-77	+1.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 158
Mar 7	vsAPP	W 86-73	+4.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 8	vsTROY	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

−2.5

L 79-83

+13.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−2.5

UNF

W 92-83

−0.5

UTM

W 70-60

+11.5

RAD

W 82-75

+10.5

MIA

L 64-88

−4.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−0.5

MISS

L 67-71

+8.5

W 62-54

−3.5

ARST

L 86-93

−5.5

LSU

L 62-90

−6.5

ULM

W 87-73

+4.5

W 74-67

+3.5

TXST

W 80-70

+7.5

ULM

W 70-60

−4.5

TROY

L 65-91

−17.5

TXST

L 67-74

−4.5

GAST

L 62-69

−5.5

CCU

L 67-85

−15.5

APP

L 63-70

−5.5

JMU

W 73-65

+6.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+6.5

KENT

W 66-65

+5.5

USA

L 78-84

−7.5

TROY

W 69-65

+9.5

ODU

W 86-81

+0.5

ARST

L 84-89

+4.5

USA

W 68-55

+17.5

JMU

W 86-80

+8.5

TXST

W 81-77

+5.5

APP

W 86-73

+17.5

TROY

L 70-78

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

+10.5

L 79-83

+14.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−3.5

UNF

W 92-83

+20.5

UTM

W 70-60

−16.5

RAD

W 82-75

+4.5

MIA

L 64-88

+6.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−14.5

MISS

L 67-71

−0.5

W 62-54

−16.5

ARST

L 86-93

+23.5

LSU

L 62-90

−2.5

ULM

W 87-73

+7.5

W 74-67

+11.5

TXST

W 80-70

+5.5

ULM

W 70-60

−25.5

TROY

L 65-91

+10.5

TXST

L 67-74

+0.5

GAST

L 62-69

−13.5

CCU

L 67-85

+10.5

APP

L 63-70

−1.5

JMU

W 73-65

−5.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+9.5

KENT

W 66-65

−19.5

USA

L 78-84

+26.5

TROY

W 69-65

−10.5

ODU

W 86-81

+19.5

ARST

L 84-89

+14.5

USA

W 68-55

−18.5

JMU

W 86-80

+22.5

TXST

W 81-77

+17.5

APP

W 86-73

+21.5

TROY

L 70-78

+5.5

over 20under 13avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Miss has the better starters

Position by position: Jackson St 1, Southern Miss 3, even 1

Jackson StBetterSouthern Miss

G D. Ruffin23.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 98

JKSTBig

G J. Gaines-Wyatt TR11.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

G D. McMillian11.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 37

USMBig

G I. Taveras15.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 90

G M. Williams5.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Carruth2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 6

G T. Hoover5.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 23

USMSmall

F C. Wallace TR12.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 53

G D. Williams2.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5

USMSmall

F M. Overstreet TR2.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 39

Jackson StBetterSouthern Miss

JKST offense229th of 366 · -7.0

Even

USM defense239th of 366 · -6.3

JKST defense325th of 366 · -8.4

USMSmall

USM offense203rd of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-2.6 · 5 players

USMBig

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Bench-5.7 · 5 players

USMBig

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestJKST betterUSM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jackson St

Guards

D. Ruffin34 minD. McMillian30 minM. Williams20 minT. Hoover20 minD. Williams17 minC. Brunt11 min · TR

Forwards

K. Butler10 minD. Kolev8 minN. WilliamsNewT. LawsonNew

Centers

E. Wilson11 minJ. Williams8 min · TR

Southern Miss

Guards

J. Gaines-Wyatt27 min · TRI. Taveras27 minB. Carruth12 minB. WestonNewA. IgiedeNewC. CereseNew

Forwards

C. Wallace29 min · TRM. Overstreet10 min · TRM. MontanoNew

Centers

F. Diagne6 minM. BlankNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JKST70.2 #281

USM73.9 #197

Points per possession

JKST0.98 #341

USM1.05 #242

Pace (possessions)

JKST71.6 #50

USM70.1 #113

Shooting

Effective FG%

JKST45.7 #354

USM49.0 #289

3-point %

JKST31.4 #311

USM28.9 #355

3-point attempt rate

JKST43.3 #105

USM28.7 #358

Free throw rate

JKST37.4 #117

USM43.2 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

JKST19.4 #337

USM18.4 #290

Offensive rebound rate

JKST29.7 #215

USM32.5 #103

Assists per game

JKST10.4 #352

USM11.2 #330

Defense

Points allowed

JKST83.8 #354

USM74.8 #183

Points allowed per possession

JKST1.17 #344

USM1.07 #127

Opponent effective FG%

JKST53.0 #267

USM51.4 #177

Opponent 3-point %

JKST34.8 #236

USM34.5 #217

Turnovers forced

JKST16.5 #189

USM17.8 #109

Defensive rebound rate

JKST62.8 #359

USM71.2 #97

Steals per game

JKST6.3 #205

USM7.3 #98

Blocks per game

JKST3.0 #226

USM3.6 #127

JKST		USM
Scoring
70.2 #281	Points per game	73.9 #197
0.98 #341	Points per possession	1.05 #242
71.6 #50	Pace (possessions)	70.1 #113
Shooting
45.7 #354	Effective FG%	49.0 #289
31.4 #311	3-point %	28.9 #355
43.3 #105	3-point attempt rate	28.7 #358
37.4 #117	Free throw rate	43.2 #18
Possessions
19.4 #337	Turnover rate	18.4 #290
29.7 #215	Offensive rebound rate	32.5 #103
10.4 #352	Assists per game	11.2 #330
Defense
83.8 #354	Points allowed	74.8 #183
1.17 #344	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #127
53.0 #267	Opponent effective FG%	51.4 #177
34.8 #236	Opponent 3-point %	34.5 #217
16.5 #189	Turnovers forced	17.8 #109
62.8 #359	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #97
6.3 #205	Steals per game	7.3 #98
3.0 #226	Blocks per game	3.6 #127

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jackson St

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Florida A&M60–70
Wvs Grambling68–65
Wvs Miss Valley St85–77
Wvs AR-Pine Bluff81–78
L@ Texas Southern57–82

A week or more of rest.

Southern Miss

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy70–78
Wvs App State86–73
Wvs Texas St81–77
Wvs James Madison86–80
W@ South Alabama68–55

A week or more of rest.

Jackson State Tigers at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

What could decide it: USM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Southern Miss

Southern Miss has the better starters

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Jackson St

Southern Miss