Santa Clara Broncos at North Texas Mean Green: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ETThe Super Pit · at North Texas

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Santa Clara and North Texas
SCU	This season	UNT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCU 74–73 · win probability SCU 51%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SCU 2, UNT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SCU 25.5, UNT 39.6. Allowed: SCU 38.2, UNT 45.1

SCUSmall

Three-pointers

SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%; UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 45.0% and 32.4% of their shots

SCUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0; UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SCU plays 69.7 a game (135th fastest), UNT 67.6 (245th). Faster games mean more points

UNTSmall

Home court

UNT at home. This season: UNT 0-0 at home, SCU 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SCU 15.3%, UNT 16.8%. Forced: SCU 20.1%, UNT 21.3%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SCU 36.4%, UNT 33.5%. Defensive: SCU 67.9%, UNT 67.6%

Context

Schedule so far

SCU has played the 86th-hardest schedule, UNT the 121st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

UNT offense vs SCU defense

Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings

Even

SCU offense vs UNT defense

Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SCU 42%, UNT 45%. Transfers in: SCU 3, UNT 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SCU -0.2	—
Total	—	147.0	—
Projected score	—	SCU 73.6 · UNT 73.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SCU -0.3	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	SCU 34.5 · UNT 34.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCU WLWLL	18-16	53%	6-5	—
UNT LWLWW	17-14	55%	6-9	—

Venue/role: SCU away; UNT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCU OUUUO	19-15	56%	25-9
UNT OUUOO	14-17	45%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
UNT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Santa Clara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs UNM	L71–98LO
Nov 19	vs VCU	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs ILST	No recent meeting

North Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs USA	W58–57WU
Nov 20	@ APP	W68–64LO
Nov 27	vs NDSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SCU 1–0 UNTSCU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SCU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2025-26	UNT 60 vs SCU 63	SCU -12.5	UNT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Santa Clara

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W L W W L L W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1653%

W W W L W W W L L L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1556%

U U O U U U O O O O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 15	vsNEV	W 98-83	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsIDST	W 64-55	-14.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 21	vsUL	W 80-43	-19.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 27	vsSLU	L 70-71	+1.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsMINN	W 86-75	-5.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsUTU	W 90-80	-20.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 170
Dec 6	@UNM	L 71-98	+1.5	L −25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsASU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	vsUNT	W 63-60	-12.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsLUC	L 78-80	-15.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 28	@ORST	W 102-64	-7.5	W +30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	@PORT	W 92-85	-13.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 177
Jan 2	vsPEPP	W 82-63	-20.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsUSD	W 98-70	-17.5	W +10.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 8	@GONZ	L 77-89	+17.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 10	vsLMU	W 103-72	-11.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	vsPAC	W 85-69	-12.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 17	vsSMC	W 62-54	-1.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 24	@USD	W 85-73	-13.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 28	vsSF	W 88-73	-9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	@LMU	W 104-73	-8.5	W +22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@PAC	W 71-56	-6.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 127
Feb 7	@WSU	W 96-92	-8.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 188
Feb 11	vsSEA	W 84-72	-12.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 14	vsGONZ	L 86-94	+4.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 21	@SF	W 94-73	-6.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 25	@SMC	L 67-86	+5.5	L −13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsORST	W 93-72	-15.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsPAC	W 76-68	-9.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 9	vsSMC	W 76-71	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 10	vsGONZ	L 68-79	+8.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 20	vsUK	L 84-89	+3.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

NEV

W 98-83

+8.5

IDST

W 64-55

−5.5

W 80-43

+17.5

SLU

L 70-71

+0.5

MINN

W 86-75

+5.5

UTU

W 90-80

−10.5

UNM

L 71-98

−25.5

ASU

L 79-82

−4.5

UNT

W 63-60

−9.5

LUC

L 78-80

−17.5

ORST

W 102-64

+30.5

PORT

W 92-85

−6.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−1.5

USD

W 98-70

+10.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+5.5

LMU

W 103-72

+19.5

PAC

W 85-69

+3.5

SMC

W 62-54

+6.5

USD

W 85-73

−1.5

W 88-73

+5.5

LMU

W 104-73

+22.5

PAC

W 71-56

+8.5

WSU

W 96-92

−4.5

SEA

W 84-72

−0.5

GONZ

L 86-94

−3.5

W 94-73

+14.5

SMC

L 67-86

−13.5

ORST

W 93-72

+5.5

PAC

W 76-68

−1.5

SMC

W 76-71

+9.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−2.5

L 84-89

−1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

NEV

W 98-83

+36.5

IDST

W 64-55

−22.5

W 80-43

−17.5

SLU

L 70-71

−17.5

MINN

W 86-75

+22.5

UTU

W 90-80

+25.5

UNM

L 71-98

+15.5

ASU

L 79-82

+6.5

UNT

W 63-60

−16.5

LUC

L 78-80

+6.5

ORST

W 102-64

+15.5

PORT

W 92-85

+19.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−5.5

USD

W 98-70

+6.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+2.5

LMU

W 103-72

+21.5

PAC

W 85-69

−0.5

SMC

W 62-54

−36.5

USD

W 85-73

−4.5

W 88-73

+10.5

LMU

W 104-73

+23.5

PAC

W 71-56

−24.5

WSU

W 96-92

+27.5

SEA

W 84-72

+8.5

GONZ

L 86-94

+21.5

W 94-73

+8.5

SMC

L 67-86

−0.5

ORST

W 93-72

+11.5

PAC

W 76-68

−4.5

SMC

W 76-71

−3.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−10.5

L 84-89

+15.5

over 19under 15avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Texas

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

W W L L W W W W L W L L W L L W W L L L L W W W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

W W W L W L L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L W W W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U U O U O U O U U U U O U O U O U O U O U O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 20	vsCARK	W 74-56	-16.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsEWU	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsPV	W 72-69	-16.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 141
Dec 2	vsHCU	W 77-75	-11.5	L −9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 7	vsTCU	L 55-65	+9.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 14	@USA	W 58-57	+1.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 115
Dec 17	vsSCU	L 60-63	+12.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 31	@MEM	L 48-57	+9.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 4	vsTLSA	W 72-67	+2.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 7	vsUSF	L 70-74	+4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 11	@WICH	L 67-78	+8.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 145
Jan 18	@TULN	W 71-63	+1.5	W +9.5	137.5	U 134
Jan 21	vsUTSA	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 23	vsECU	L 59-63	-10.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 122
Jan 28	@TLSA	L 66-82	+8.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 148
Jan 31	vsUAB	L 68-72	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 140
Feb 4	@RICE	L 83-86	-1.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 169
Feb 7	@UTSA	W 81-58	-10.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsMEM	W 76-69	+2.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 15	@TEM	W 65-62	+2.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 127
Feb 19	vsTULN	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	137.5	O 148
Feb 22	vsFAU	W 73-72	-2.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Feb 25	@CLT	L 79-80	-2.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 159
Mar 1	@UAB	W 62-58	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 120
Mar 4	vsRICE	W 62-58	-6.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 120
Mar 12	vsFAU	W 74-70	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 144
Mar 13	vsTLSA	L 84-90	+7.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

CARK

W 74-56

+1.5

EWU

W 79-71

−4.5

W 72-69

−13.5

HCU

W 77-75

−9.5

TCU

L 55-65

−0.5

USA

W 58-57

+2.5

SCU

L 60-63

+9.5

MEM

L 48-57

+0.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+7.5

USF

L 70-74

+0.5

WICH

L 67-78

−2.5

TULN

W 71-63

+9.5

UTSA

W 81-62

+3.5

ECU

L 59-63

−14.5

TLSA

L 66-82

−7.5

UAB

L 68-72

−5.5

RICE

L 83-86

−4.5

UTSA

W 81-58

+12.5

MEM

W 76-69

+9.5

TEM

W 65-62

+5.5

TULN

L 71-77

−12.5

FAU

W 73-72

−1.5

CLT

L 79-80

−3.5

UAB

W 62-58

+8.5

RICE

W 62-58

−2.5

FAU

W 74-70

+2.5

TLSA

L 84-90

+1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

CARK

W 74-56

−4.5

EWU

W 79-71

+8.5

W 72-69

−0.5

HCU

W 77-75

+24.5

TCU

L 55-65

−15.5

USA

W 58-57

−20.5

SCU

L 60-63

−16.5

MEM

L 48-57

−32.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+0.5

USF

L 70-74

−3.5

WICH

L 67-78

+9.5

TULN

W 71-63

−3.5

UTSA

W 81-62

+4.5

ECU

L 59-63

−12.5

TLSA

L 66-82

+6.5

UAB

L 68-72

−1.5

RICE

L 83-86

+34.5

UTSA

W 81-58

−2.5

MEM

W 76-69

+6.5

TEM

W 65-62

−8.5

TULN

L 71-77

+10.5

FAU

W 73-72

+4.5

CLT

L 79-80

+25.5

UAB

W 62-58

−22.5

RICE

W 62-58

−17.5

FAU

W 74-70

+7.5

TLSA

L 84-90

+32.5

over 14under 17avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Santa Clara 0, North Texas 2, even 3

Santa ClaraBetterNorth Texas

G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53

UNTBig

G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94

G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41

Even

G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53

G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61

Even

G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47

G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

UNTBig

G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74

G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56

Even

F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65

Santa ClaraBetterNorth Texas

SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4

Even

UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0

SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8

Even

UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0

Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players

UNTBig

Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player

Bench-0.2 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.7 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestSCU betterUNT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Santa Clara

Guards

J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min

Forwards

C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew

Centers

F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew

North Texas

Guards

J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew

Forwards

R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SCU82.9 #30

UNT69.1 #298

Points per possession

SCU1.18 #37

UNT1.02 #302

Pace (possessions)

SCU69.7 #135

UNT67.6 #245

Shooting

Effective FG%

SCU54.5 #53

UNT46.0 #349

3-point %

SCU34.9 #125

UNT28.7 #358

3-point attempt rate

SCU45.0 #67

UNT32.4 #325

Free throw rate

SCU25.5 #363

UNT39.6 #63

Possessions

Turnover rate

SCU15.3 #86

UNT16.8 #182

Offensive rebound rate

SCU36.4 #20

UNT33.5 #76

Assists per game

SCU16.6 #33

UNT12.1 #282

Defense

Points allowed

SCU73.5 #141

UNT68.2 #35

Points allowed per possession

SCU1.06 #117

UNT1.01 #33

Opponent effective FG%

SCU52.0 #213

UNT48.5 #47

Opponent 3-point %

SCU33.1 #127

UNT30.9 #32

Turnovers forced

SCU20.1 #20

UNT21.3 #6

Defensive rebound rate

SCU67.9 #262

UNT67.6 #278

Steals per game

SCU8.7 #14

UNT8.9 #11

Blocks per game

SCU3.6 #125

UNT4.3 #51

SCU		UNT
Scoring
82.9 #30	Points per game	69.1 #298
1.18 #37	Points per possession	1.02 #302
69.7 #135	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #245
Shooting
54.5 #53	Effective FG%	46.0 #349
34.9 #125	3-point %	28.7 #358
45.0 #67	3-point attempt rate	32.4 #325
25.5 #363	Free throw rate	39.6 #63
Possessions
15.3 #86	Turnover rate	16.8 #182
36.4 #20	Offensive rebound rate	33.5 #76
16.6 #33	Assists per game	12.1 #282
Defense
73.5 #141	Points allowed	68.2 #35
1.06 #117	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #33
52.0 #213	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #47
33.1 #127	Opponent 3-point %	30.9 #32
20.1 #20	Turnovers forced	21.3 #6
67.9 #262	Defensive rebound rate	67.6 #278
8.7 #14	Steals per game	8.9 #11
3.6 #125	Blocks per game	4.3 #51

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky84–89
Lvs Gonzaga68–79
Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
Wvs Pacific76–68
Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulsa84–90
Wvs FAU74–70
Wvs Rice62–58
W@ UAB62–58
L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara Broncos at North Texas Mean Green

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Santa Clara

North Texas

North Texas has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Santa Clara

North Texas